LTREB RENEWAL: Collaborative Research: Population- and community-level mechanisms of range limitation in a variable and changing environment

预测全球气候变化的影响需要了解动植物的丰度和地理分布将如何对天气模式的变化作出反应。该项目继续对从阿拉斯加北方到新墨西哥州高山的两种高山植物进行长期研究。迄今为止收集的数据显示，在靠近其南部界限的地方，这两个物种的生存率都在下降，但增长率较高。这些补偿性反应在大多数年份减轻了气候影响，但在最温暖的年份则被打破。 在接下来的五年里，该项目将收集更详细的数据，将这些生态反应与当地和区域气候联系起来，并利用气候变化预测来预测该物种未来的范围限制。了解气候和气候变化如何决定生态动态是了解气候变化何时、何地以及为什么会产生或不会产生严重后果的核心要求。这项研究将建立预测气候变化影响的能力，包括开发可扩展到其他物种和生态系统的实地和种群建模方法。除了这一认识的应用好处，这项工作将有助于解决长期存在的问题，即自然设定范围限制和确定生物多样性模式的力量。该研究结合了研究生和本科生的实地和建模方法的正式培训以及对公众的非正式教育。后者包括积极参与非营利教育中心，通过国家公园管理局举办公开讲座，以及为大众媒体撰写一系列文章。

Anticipating the effects of global climate change requires an understanding of how the abundances and geographic distributions of plants and animals will respond to altered weather patterns. This project continues a long-term study of two alpine plants from northern Alaska to the high alpine of New Mexico. Data collected to date show that near their southern limits, both species show declining survival but higher growth. These compensatory responses mitigate climate effects in most years, but break down in the warmest years. Over the next five years, the project will gather more detailed data to tie these ecological responses to local and regional climate and use climate change predictions to project the future range limits of the species. Understanding how climate, and climate change, determine ecological dynamics is a central requirement for understanding when, where, and why climate change will or will not have serious consequences. This research will build capacity to anticipate climate change impacts, including the development of field and population modeling methods that can be extended to other species and ecosystems. Beyond the applied benefits of this understanding, the work will contribute to long-standing questions about the forces that naturally set range limits and determine patterns of biological diversity. The research incorporates both formal training in field and modeling methods to graduate and undergraduate students and informal education to the general public. The latter includes active involvement in non-profit education centers, public lectures through the National Park Service, and a series of articles written for the popular media.