Dissertation Research: Strategies in an Uncertain Environment-How Well Do Animals Cope With Shifting Risks

9700515莫里斯大多数生物生活在不可预测的环境中，必须使用不完整的信息做出决定，如在哪里和何时繁殖。尽管许多理论研究预测了动物在这种不确定性面前应该如何表现，但很少有实地研究量化动物对空间和时间上不可预测的死亡风险做出繁殖反应的方式。与幼稚或无所不知的策略相比，量化动物利用信息降低生殖风险的研究更少。在秘鲁的季节性低地热带雨林中，青蛙Edalorhina perezi和其他两栖动物更喜欢在树下的小池子里产卵，卵和蝌蚪在那里经历的死亡风险因池子而异，并随不可预测的降雨量而变化。通过观察青蛙的产卵行为和池塘之间的移动，我将评估它们如何分配后代。我的方法将结合对风险的观察和青蛙在自然水池中的行为，使用人工水池测试青蛙跟踪变化风险的能力的实验，以及一个模型来确定与其他风险评估能力范围内的策略相比，青蛙的表现如何。

9700515 Morris Most organisms live in unpredictable environments, and must make decisions such as where and when to reproduce using incomplete information. Despite numerous theoretical studies that have predicted how animals should behave in the face of such uncertainty, few field studies have quantified the ways that animals respond reproductively to mortality risks that are spatially and temporally unpredictable. Even fewer studies have quantified how well animals use information to reduce reproductive risks, when compared to either naive or omniscient strategies. In a seasonal lowland rain forest in Peru, the frog Edalorhina perezi and other amphibians preferentially lay eggs in small tree-fall pools, where the eggs and tadpoles experience mortality risks that differ among pools and change temporally depending on unpredictable rainfall. By observing frog egg-laying behavior and movement among pools, I will assess how well they distribute their offspring. My approach will combine observations of risks and frog behavior in natural pools, an experiment using artificial pools to test the frogs' abilities to track changing risks, and a model to determine how well the frogs perform compared to other strategies that range in risk-assessment capabilities.