Collaborative LTREB Research: How will local adaptation and environmental extremes shape continental-scale changes in species distribution and abundance?

LTREB 合作研究：局部适应和极端环境将如何影响大陆范围内物种分布和丰度的变化？

• 批准号: 1753980
• 负责人: William Morris
• 金额: $ 22.5万
• 依托单位: Duke University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-05-01 至 2024-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1753980&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; LTREB; Research; How; will

Predicting how species will respond to environmental changes across the globe is among the greatest biological challenges faced today, as these responses will determine the continued functioning of natural ecosystems and the ability of the Earth to continue to provide food, clean water, and other resources for humankind. Most efforts to predict ecological responses to environmental changes only try to predict the future geographical ranges of species, not the actual number of individuals across the range, even though numbers are likely to be a far more important measure of ecological functioning. Among the problems with forecasting either range shifts or changes in numbers is the variability in the environment from year to year, such that short-term responses of species may be very different than long-term trends, necessitating the long-term studies to be carried out in this project. In addition, populations of widespread species often show adaptation to the local environment, so that the range of climatic conditions tolerated by a species as a whole may not reflect the suitable conditions for individuals in any one population. Ignoring local adaptation may lead to inaccurate predictions of both geographical ranges and numbers of individuals. Finally, the scientists leading this project will develop training materials and teach workshops to high school teachers in order to improve students' understanding of the ecological responses to changes in climate and other environmental conditions.This project is designed to address these and other problems in predicting ecological responses to future environmental conditions, using a long-term data set combined with new experiments. The study focuses on two wide-spread plants that occur in western North America from northernmost Alaska to central New Mexico. Seventeen years of data on the species at sites across this latitudinal range have shown how environmental change can influence survival, growth and reproduction of these plants. In the current project, plants will be transplanted between multiple sites to test for local adaptation to environmental change in the field (evidence from growth chamber experiments suggests the potential for such adaptation). Using these data and those from past and ongoing surveys of natural populations, new models will be developed to predict plant numbers in response to local environmental conditions for populations across the continent. These predictions will then be tested against current distributions and population sizes. After this validation, the local models will be tied to global models to improve predictions of ecological responses to future environmental conditions. The goals of the project are both to better predict how these particular species will respond to changes in their environment and to develop and test methods for making such predictions that can be used for many other species.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

预测物种对全球环境变化的反应是当今面临的最大的生物学挑战之一，因为这些反应将决定自然生态系统的持续功能，以及地球继续为人类提供食物、清洁水和其他资源的能力。大多数预测生态对环境变化的反应的努力只是试图预测物种未来的地理范围，而不是整个范围内的实际个体数量，尽管数量可能是生态功能更重要的衡量标准。预测范围变化或数量变化的问题之一是每年环境的变化，因此物种的短期反应可能与长期趋势大不相同，这就需要在本项目中进行长期研究。此外，分布广泛的物种种群往往表现出对当地环境的适应性，因此，一个物种作为一个整体所能忍受的气候条件的范围可能并不反映任何一个种群中个体的适宜条件。忽视局部适应可能导致对地理范围和个体数量的不准确预测。最后，领导这个项目的科学家将为高中教师编写培训材料并开设讲习班，以提高学生对气候和其他环境条件变化的生态反应的理解。该项目旨在利用长期数据集和新的实验，解决这些问题和其他问题，以预测未来环境条件下的生态反应。这项研究的重点是两种分布广泛的植物，它们分布在北美西部，从阿拉斯加最北端到新墨西哥州中部。在这一纬度范围内，17年的物种数据显示了环境变化如何影响这些植物的生存、生长和繁殖。在目前的项目中，植物将在多个地点之间移植，以测试当地对田间环境变化的适应（来自生长室实验的证据表明这种适应的潜力）。利用这些数据以及来自过去和正在进行的自然种群调查的数据，将开发新的模型来预测整个大陆的种群在当地环境条件下的植物数量。然后，这些预测将根据当前的分布和人口规模进行测试。在此验证之后，本地模型将与全球模型联系起来，以改进对未来环境条件的生态反应的预测。该项目的目标是更好地预测这些特定物种对环境变化的反应，并开发和测试用于预测许多其他物种的方法。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Asynchrony in individual and subpopulation fecundity stabilizes reproductive output of an alpine plant population

个体和亚群繁殖力的异步稳定了高山植物种群的繁殖产出

• DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2639
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Ecology
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Waddle, Ellen;Piedrahita, Lucas R.;Hall, Elijah S.;Kendziorski, Grace;Morris, William F.;Peterson, Megan L.;Doak, Daniel F.
• 通讯作者: Doak, Daniel F.

A critical comparison of integral projection and matrix projection models for demographic analysis: Reply

用于人口分析的积分投影和矩阵投影模型的关键比较：回复

• DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3822
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Ecology
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Doak, Daniel F.;Waddle, Ellen;Langendorf, Ryan E.;Louthan, Allison M.;Chardon, Nathalie Isabelle;Dibner, Reilly;Shriver, Robert K.;Linares, Cristina;Garcia, Maria Begoña;Fitzpatrick, Sarah W.
• 通讯作者: Fitzpatrick, Sarah W.

Improving structured population models with more realistic representations of non‐normal growth

通过更现实地表示非正常增长来改进结构化人口模型

• DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13240
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Methods in Ecology and Evolution
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: DeMarche, Megan L.;Morris, William;Linares, Cristina;Doak, Daniel;Altwegg, ed., Res
• 通讯作者: Altwegg, ed., Res

Limited evidence for phenological differences between non-native and native species

• DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.983172
• 发表时间: 2022-09
• 作者: M. A. Zettlemoyer;Sage L. Ellis;Clayton W Hale;Emma C. Horne;Riley D. Thoen;Megan L. DeMarche

Biotic and anthropogenic forces rival climatic/abiotic factors in determining global plant population growth and fitness

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1918363117
• 发表时间: 2020-01-14
• 期刊: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• 影响因子: 11.1
• 作者: Morris, William F.;Ehrlen, Johan;Louthan, Allison M.
• 通讯作者: Louthan, Allison M.