Collaborative Research: The Role of Ocean Dynamical Feedback and Air-Sea Interaction in the Climate Response to Global Warming

合作研究:海洋动力反馈和海气相互作用在全球变暖气候响应中的作用

基本信息

项目摘要

This project considers changes in regional climate occurring primarily in and over the tropical oceans, due to greenhouse gas increases. Among the robust regional climate changes found in ensembles of climate model simulations, three are addressed here: a pattern of "El Nino-like" sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the tropical Pacific; a minimum in the warming of SSTs in the tropical North Atlantic area which is the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic tropical cyclones, accompanied by an increase in vertical wind shear in the region (which would presumably inhibit tropical cyclone formation); and the meridional shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ICTZ) which has been tentatively ascribed to the slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) caused by global warming. These regional changes will be examined by decomposing local SST change into components forced separately by 1) the increase in local surface radiation; 2) redistribution of changes in near-surface heat ocean content by the mean ocean circulation; 3) redistribution of the mean near-surface heat content by changes in the wind-driven surface currents; and 4) changes in evaporative cooling due to changes in surface wind speed. The four terms, which come from a linearization of the perturbation surface energy balance equation, have been previously associated with specific mechanisms of regional SST change. In particular term 4 expresses the dynamics of the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback, in which the quadratic dependence of evaporation on surface wind speed cause evaporative cooling to vary regionally according to the strength of the mean winds and their direction relative to changes in wind. Likewise term 2 encapsulates the ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism, in which a uniform increase in surface energy input causes less local SST increase in a region of divergent surface currents as the additional heat is transported out of the region. This mechanism would be expected to yield a reduction in SST warming in the Eastern Pacific cold tongue region relative to the western Pacific, thereby acting to oppose the El Nino-like warming pattern found in climate change simulations. The methodology for determining the relative contributions of the terms involves numerical integrations of a climate model in configurations in which the terms are selectively enabled and disabled. Beyond its intrinsic scientific value, the work has broader impacts due to the consequences of changes in tropical ocean conditions have for fisheries, marine ecology, and the formation of tropical cyclones. The work will also help to determine the extent to which climate model simulations can be confidently used to anticipate climate change at regional scales.
该项目考虑由于温室气体增加而主要在热带海洋内和热带海洋上空发生的区域气候变化。在一系列气候模式模拟中发现的强有力的区域气候变化中,有三个在这里被讨论:热带太平洋的“厄尔尼诺”海表温度(SST)变化模式;热带北大西洋地区的SST变暖最小,该地区是大西洋热带气旋的主要发展区域(MDR),并伴随着该区域垂直风切变的增加(相信会抑制热带气旋的形成);以及热带辐合带(ICTZ)的纬向移动,这被暂时归因于大西洋纬向翻转环流的减缓(AMOC)造成的全球变暖。这些区域变化将通过将局部SST变化分解为单独受以下因素影响的分量来检查:1)局部表面辐射的增加; 2)平均海洋环流对近表面海洋热含量变化的再分布; 3)由风驱动的表面流变化对平均近表面热含量的再分布;以及4)由于表面风速变化引起的蒸发冷却变化。这四项,来自扰动表面能量平衡方程的线性化,以前已经与特定的区域SST变化机制。特别是第4项表示风-蒸发-SST(WES)反馈的动力学,其中蒸发对表面风速的二次依赖性导致蒸发冷却根据平均风的强度及其相对于风变化的方向而在区域上变化。同样,第2项包含了海洋动力恒温器(ODT)机制,其中表面能量输入的均匀增加会导致分散表面流区域的局部SST增加较少,因为额外的热量被输送到该区域之外。这一机制预计将导致东太平洋冷舌区相对于西太平洋的SST变暖减少,从而与气候变化模拟中发现的厄尔尼诺式变暖模式相反。确定这些项的相对贡献的方法涉及到气候模式在配置中的数值积分,在这些配置中有选择地启用和禁用这些项。除了其内在的科学价值外,这项工作还具有更广泛的影响,因为热带海洋条件的变化对渔业、海洋生态和热带气旋的形成产生了影响。这项工作还将有助于确定气候模型模拟在多大程度上可以自信地用于预测区域尺度的气候变化。

项目成果

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Shang-Ping Xie其他文献

Leading the hiatus research surge
引领间歇期研究热潮
  • DOI:
    10.1038/nclimate2973
  • 发表时间:
    2016-03-24
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    27.100
  • 作者:
    Shang-Ping Xie
  • 通讯作者:
    Shang-Ping Xie
Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7
  • 发表时间:
    2020-08-26
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.700
  • 作者:
    Wen-Shan Ju;Shang-Min Long;Shang-Ping Xie;Guihua Wang;Yan Du
  • 通讯作者:
    Yan Du
A winter warm pool southwest of Hainan Island due to the orographic wind wake
海南岛西南部因地形风尾迹形成的冬季暖池
  • DOI:
    10.1029/2012jc008189
  • 发表时间:
    2012-08
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Guihua Wang;Shang-Ping Xie;Ren Zhang;Zhenyu Sun
  • 通讯作者:
    Zhenyu Sun
Subantarctic Mode Water and its long-term change in CMIP6 models
CMIP6模式中亚南极模态水及其长期变化
  • DOI:
    10.1175/jcli-d-21-0133.1
  • 发表时间:
    2021-09
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4.9
  • 作者:
    Yu Hong;Yan Du;Xingyue Xia;Lixiao Xu;Ying Zhang;Shang-Ping Xie
  • 通讯作者:
    Shang-Ping Xie
Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons
全球能量学和局部物理学作为过去、现在和未来季风的驱动力
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41561-018-0137-1
  • 发表时间:
    2018-05-31
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    16.100
  • 作者:
    Michela Biasutti;Aiko Voigt;William R. Boos;Pascale Braconnot;Julia C. Hargreaves;Sandy P. Harrison;Sarah M. Kang;Brian E. Mapes;Jacob Scheff;Courtney Schumacher;Adam H. Sobel;Shang-Ping Xie
  • 通讯作者:
    Shang-Ping Xie

Shang-Ping Xie的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Shang-Ping Xie', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborative Research: Dynamics of Seasonal Forecast Uncertainty: Cross-Basin Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions
合作研究:季节预报不确定性的动态:跨流域海洋-大气相互作用
  • 批准号:
    2105654
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.21万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Interhemispheric and Zonal Asymmetries of the ITCZ
合作研究:ITCZ 的半球间和区域不对称性
  • 批准号:
    1934392
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.21万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Roles of Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling and Remote Forcing in Northwest Pacific Monsoon Variability
区域海气耦合和远程强迫在西北太平洋季风变化中的作用
  • 批准号:
    1637450
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.21万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Mechanisms and Effects of Tropical Indian Ocean Variability
热带印度洋变化的机制和影响
  • 批准号:
    1305719
  • 财政年份:
    2012
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.21万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Mechanisms and Effects of Tropical Indian Ocean Variability
热带印度洋变化的机制和影响
  • 批准号:
    0854365
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.21万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Ship-Board Atmospheric Sounding over the Kuroshio Extension: A Supplement to CLIVAR KESS
黑潮延伸区的船上大气探测:CLIVAR KESS 的补充
  • 批准号:
    0454390
  • 财政年份:
    2005
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.21万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Mechanisms for the Northward Displacement of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
太平洋热带辐合带(ITCZ)北移机制
  • 批准号:
    0104468
  • 财政年份:
    2001
  • 资助金额:
    $ 33.21万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant

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