CAREER:The emergence of novel regeneration niches- Forecasting tree species recruitment dynamics in a time of change

森林是美国大约一半的自然植被，生态学当前的一个重要目标是了解气候变化如何影响森林的结构和组成。该项目将通过关注森林动态的一个关键方面来实现这一目标——将新树作为幼苗引入森林。为了使研究与当前条件最相关，该项目不仅要考虑气候的影响，还要考虑这些影响如何与森林破碎和外来入侵物种的影响相互作用。研究将结合实地、观察和实验工作，对北美东部温带落叶林中几种优势树种的补充动态进行统计分析和建模，研究地点从密歇根州北部到南部。研究结果将为预测这些森林的未来结构和组成奠定基础。森林是国家的主要自然资源。为了可持续地管理它们，政策制定者和土地使用者需要能够为气候变化可能带来的复杂影响做出规划。该项目的结果将为管理人员提供有关重要森林树木在一系列管理制度下保持稳定种群的潜力的信息。该项目还包括教育部分。研究的方法和成果将在大学和K-12学生的教材中传播，以培养对描述和预测气候变化对森林影响的科学模型的科学素养。

Forests are the natural vegetation of about half of the U.S., and an important, current goal in ecology is to understand how changes in climate affect the structure and composition of forests. This project will approach this goal by focusing on a critical aspect of forest dynamics -- the recruitment of new trees into the forest as seedlings. To make the research most relevant to current conditions, the project will consider not just effects of climate, but how these may interact with effects from the fragmentation of forests and from the presence of introduced, invasive species. Research will combine field-based, observational, and experimental work with statistical analyses and modeling of the recruitment dynamics of several dominant tree species in the temperate deciduous forests of eastern North America, using sites from northern to southern Michigan. The results will lay a foundation for forecasting the future structure and composition of these forests.Forests are a major natural resource for the nation. To manage them sustainably, policy makers and land users need to be able to plan for the likely complicating effects of climate change. The results from this project will give managers information about the potential of important forest trees to maintain stable populations under a range of management regimes. The project also includes an educational component. Methods and outcomes of the research will be disseminated in educational materials for university and K-12 students to foster scientific literacy about scientific models that describe and predict the impacts of climate change on forests.