CAREER:The emergence of novel regeneration niches- Forecasting tree species recruitment dynamics in a time of change

森林是美国约一半地区的天然植被，目前生态学的一个重要目标是了解气候变化如何影响森林的结构和组成。该项目将侧重于森林动态的一个关键方面--将新树作为苗木招募到森林中，从而实现这一目标。为了使这项研究与当前条件最相关，该项目将不仅考虑气候的影响，还将考虑这些影响可能如何与森林碎片化和外来入侵物种的存在产生的影响相互作用。研究将结合实地、观察和实验工作，使用从密歇根州北部到南部的地点，对北美东部温带落叶森林中几个主要树种的补充动态进行统计分析和建模。这一结果将为预测这些森林的未来结构和组成奠定基础。森林是国家的主要自然资源。为了可持续地管理它们，政策制定者和土地使用者需要能够为气候变化可能带来的复杂影响制定计划。该项目的成果将向管理人员提供有关重要林木在一系列管理制度下维持稳定种群的潜力的信息。该项目还包括一个教育部分。研究的方法和结果将在大学和K-12年级学生的教材中传播，以培养对描述和预测气候变化对森林的影响的科学模型的科学素养。

Forests are the natural vegetation of about half of the U.S., and an important, current goal in ecology is to understand how changes in climate affect the structure and composition of forests. This project will approach this goal by focusing on a critical aspect of forest dynamics -- the recruitment of new trees into the forest as seedlings. To make the research most relevant to current conditions, the project will consider not just effects of climate, but how these may interact with effects from the fragmentation of forests and from the presence of introduced, invasive species. Research will combine field-based, observational, and experimental work with statistical analyses and modeling of the recruitment dynamics of several dominant tree species in the temperate deciduous forests of eastern North America, using sites from northern to southern Michigan. The results will lay a foundation for forecasting the future structure and composition of these forests.Forests are a major natural resource for the nation. To manage them sustainably, policy makers and land users need to be able to plan for the likely complicating effects of climate change. The results from this project will give managers information about the potential of important forest trees to maintain stable populations under a range of management regimes. The project also includes an educational component. Methods and outcomes of the research will be disseminated in educational materials for university and K-12 students to foster scientific literacy about scientific models that describe and predict the impacts of climate change on forests.