CAREER: Dynamic Decision Theory and Bounded Rationality

职业：动态决策理论和有限理性

• 批准号: 1255062
• 负责人: Tomasz Strzalecki
• 金额: $ 41.14万
• 依托单位: Harvard University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1255062&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Dynamic; Decision; Theory; Bounded

This project improves our understanding of models of dynamic decisions and bounded rationality. The research will consider issues of dynamic stochastic choice by providing axiomatic characterizations of two types of stochastic dynamic choice rules. These two rules have many properties in common and coincide in static problems. The key distinction is whether the choice rule exhibits a preference for flexibility (preferring larger choice sets) or error aversion (preferring smaller sets). Another component of the research studies market interaction of agents operating under cognitive constraints such as limited attention, imperfect memory, and bounded ability to form contingent plans. The PI develops a new theory to explain how the market mechanism allocates agents' attention. The model yields a number of predictions: limited market participation, ex post consumption heterogeneity, and high volatility of asset prices as compared to the fundamentals. The PI also studies two dimensions of temporal preferences that can be derived from a recursive utility model. The goal is to derive and analyze the premium that an agent is willing to pay for early resolution of consumption uncertainty and to examine the exact form of the aversion to autocorrelation.The educational component of the award includes the use of a new collaborative open science approach to developing a decision theory textbook that will be made available online at no charge. The planned approach also contributes to graduate education by enlisting graduate students in textbook authorship.The project provides foundations for models that are being used in practice, thereby contributing to our understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. It also analyzes novel dimensions of preferences and choice. These models are key to understanding many fundamental issues in economics. The project yields broader impact because adding new and better tools for analysis improves our ability to formulate and evaluate economic policy.

这个项目提高了我们对动态决策和有限理性模型的理解。 本研究将考虑动态随机选择的问题，提供两种类型的随机动态选择规则的公理化特征。 这两个规则有许多共同的性质，在静态问题中是一致的。 关键的区别在于选择规则是偏好灵活性（偏好较大的选择集）还是偏好错误规避（偏好较小的选择集）。 研究的另一个组成部分是研究在认知约束下运作的代理人的市场互动，这些约束包括有限的注意力、不完美的记忆和有限的形成应急计划的能力。 PI发展了一个新的理论来解释市场机制如何分配代理人的注意力。 该模型产生了一些预测：有限的市场参与，事后消费异质性，以及资产价格的高波动性相比，基本面。PI还研究了两个维度的时间偏好，可以从一个递归的效用模型。 其目标是推导和分析代理愿意为消费不确定性的早期解决支付的溢价，并研究对自相关的厌恶的确切形式。该奖项的教育部分包括使用一种新的合作开放科学方法来开发一本决策理论教科书，该教科书将在网上免费提供。 计划中的方法还通过招募研究生编写教科书来促进研究生教育。该项目为实际使用的模型奠定了基础，从而有助于我们了解其优缺点。 它还分析了偏好和选择的新维度。 这些模型是理解经济学中许多基本问题的关键。 该项目产生了更广泛的影响，因为增加新的和更好的分析工具提高了我们制定和评估经济政策的能力。