CAREER: The use of Quantitative Geography to Predict Population Tipping Points for Colonial Seabirds

亚米分辨率的卫星图像是一种变革性技术，它从根本上扩大了我们研究海鸟集群空间生态的能力。与此同时，卫星图像和正在开发的地理空间工具为地球和环境科学教育提供了新的机会。这个为期五年的项目的研究目标是使用个人为基础的模型，巢址占用，参数化亚米卫星图像，估计生物和非生物因素的相对重要性，在结构化的精细尺度的空间生态学的海鸟殖民地（生物过程），并了解这些殖民地内的动态驱动栖息地占用在区域尺度（地理格局）。该项目涉及三项相互关联的研究活动：1）综合人工和自动算法进行卫星图像判读，并利用这些方法建立一个高分辨率、大范围的企鹅繁殖占用数据库，根据该数据库将开发特定物种生境适宜性模型; 2）层次结构的构造和参数化（物种特异性）随机空间现实结构集合种群模型来研究群体形成和崩溃的过程。这些模型，参数化的亚米卫星图像，将阐明如何在当地规模的临界点驱动紧急动态集合种群规模;以及3）优化空间和/或时间度量以用于作为即将到来的海鸟群体崩溃的指示的“临界减慢”，并且在更大的空间尺度上，区域灭绝。该项目的更广泛影响围绕中学地球和环境科学学习模块的发展，整合地理（内容），地理空间技术（过程），和虚拟访问南极洲（上下文）纳入一个统一的框架，用于教授纽约州科学核心课程的关键组成部分。除了这些模块，该项目还将包括高中生的带薪暑期实习，作为纽约“科学研究”课程的一部分，对南极洲地理学进行独立研究。最后，本项目将为两名博士后研究人员和两名博士生提供研究培训。

Sub-meter resolution satellite imagery is a transformational technology that radically expands our ability to study the spatial ecology of colonial seabirds. At the same time, satellite imagery and the geospatial tools being developed to explore it present novel opportunities for earth and environmental science education. The research objective of this five-year project is to use individual-based models of nest site occupancy, parameterized by sub-meter satellite imagery, to estimate the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in structuring the fine-scale spatial ecology of seabird colonies (biological process) and to understand how these within-colony dynamics drive habitat occupancy at regional scales (geographic pattern). This project involves three interconnected research activities: 1) the synthesis of manual and automated algorithms for satellite imagery interpretation, and the use of such methods to create a high-resolution, large extent database of penguin breeding occupancy from which species-specific habitat suitability models will be developed; 2) the construction and parameterization of a hierarchical (species-specific) stochastic spatially-realistic structured metapopulation model to study the processes of colony formation and collapse. These models, parameterized by the sub-meter satellite imagery, will elucidate how tipping points at the local-scale drive emergent dynamics at the metapopulation scale; and 3) the optimization of spatial and/or temporal metrics for 'critical slowing' as an indication of impending seabird colony collapse and, at larger spatial scales, regional extinction.The Broader Impacts of this project center around the development of secondary-school earth and environmental science learning modules that integrate geography (content), geospatial technologies (process), and virtual access to Antarctica (context) into a unified framework for teaching key components of the New York State Core Curricula for science. In addition to these modules, the project will involve paid summer internships for high school students to conduct independent research on Antarctic biogeography as part of New York's 'Science Research' curriculum. Finally, this project will provide research training for two Postdoctoral Researchers and two PhD students.