CAREER: Welfare Gains from Economic Integration: A Unified Approach

职业：经济一体化带来的福利收益：统一方法

• 批准号: 1255298
• 负责人: Konstantinos Arkolakis
• 金额: $ 42.99万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-03-01 至 2018-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1255298&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Welfare; Gains; Economic; Integration

Abstract Proposal Title: CAREER: Welfare Gains from Economic Integration: A Unified ApproachProposal Number: SES - 1255298Principal Investigator: Arkolakis, KonstantinosThe international trade field has seen a dramatic shift of its research agenda over the past decade. New evidence on the size advantage of exporters has motivated the modeling of firm heterogeneity, resulting in a new analytical framework for international trade. These changes in the field have also lead to a reconsideration of the old pressing question: how large are the gains from economic integration?This proposal outlines a plan to advance the understanding of this question and to begin disseminating this work to the general public. The intellectual merit of the theoretical techniques suggested in this proposal derives from the fact that they maintain a tight link with the data. Thus, they deliver simple and analytically tractable relationships linking barriers to economic integration and openness and, in turn, openness and economic welfare. This theoretical work is complemented by careful quantitative policy analysis. The proposal is composed of four different research projects.Previous assessments of the welfare gains from international trade focus on models with constant markups, thus ignoring the so-called pro-competitive effects of trade. The first project plans to develop a unified framework to analyze the pro-competitive effects of trade in models with variable markups. The main result implies that gains from trade are tightly associated with the degree of price pass-through of firms, a statistic measured independently by many economists.The second project aims to offer a theoretical characterization of the impact of innovation on trade and welfare in a model with variable markups. The goal of this project is to understand the link between innovation and welfare and how pro-competitive effects shape this relationship. For this purpose, the project will assess how different assumptions on the demand and competition structure affect innovation and how trade can intensify innovation and affect welfare.The third project develops an extension of a baseline trade framework that can seamlessly accommodate production of multinational firms and provide a new analytical tool for the understanding of the gains from multinational activity. A component of this project is the development and implementation of a procedure to estimate the model. The end product will be a useful tool for evaluating policies that reduce barriers to trade and multinational activity.The final project will attempt to strengthen the tenuous link between dynamic open economy models and static trade models by developing a multi-country trade model that incorporates the fact that trade adjustment may take time. Using this framework as a basis the proposed project will study the dynamic adjustment of trade to macroeconomic shocks and the welfare implications of the sluggishness of trade responses to these shocks.The proposed research will provide a framework to analyze the main forces that shape the gains from economic integration. It will also provide necessary tools to exploit the rich data on international trade and understand the workings of the world economy. Part of these tools will be integrated to the material of an undergraduate class in International Finance. The simple link between barriers to economic integration and economic welfare derived by this research agenda bypasses the various abstractions of economic theory and makes it a useful tool from a policy perspective. It is thus ideal material for the education of not only future economists but also policy makers and other future leaders in an interdependent world.

摘要提案题目：职业：经济一体化带来的福利收益：一种统一的方法提案号：SES - 1255298首席研究员：Arkolakis， konstantinos在过去十年中，国际贸易领域的研究议程发生了巨大的变化。关于出口商规模优势的新证据推动了企业异质性模型的建立，从而形成了一个新的国际贸易分析框架。该领域的这些变化也促使人们重新思考一个古老而紧迫的问题：经济一体化的收益有多大？本提案概述了一项计划，以促进对这一问题的理解，并开始向公众传播这项工作。本建议中提出的理论技术的智力价值源于它们与数据保持紧密联系的事实。因此，它们提供了简单且易于分析的关系，将经济一体化和开放的障碍联系起来，进而将开放和经济福利联系起来。这一理论工作得到了仔细的定量政策分析的补充。该提案由四个不同的研究项目组成。先前对国际贸易福利收益的评估侧重于不断加价的模型，从而忽略了所谓的贸易促进竞争效应。第一个项目计划制定一个统一的框架，以分析具有可变加价模型的贸易对促进竞争的影响。主要结果表明，贸易收益与企业的价格传递程度密切相关，这是许多经济学家独立衡量的一项统计数据。第二个项目的目的是在一个具有可变加价的模型中提供创新对贸易和福利影响的理论表征。该项目的目标是了解创新和福利之间的联系，以及促进竞争的影响如何塑造这种关系。为此，该项目将评估需求和竞争结构的不同假设如何影响创新，以及贸易如何加强创新并影响福利。第三个项目是扩大基本贸易框架，使其能够无缝地适应跨国公司的生产，并为了解跨国活动的收益提供一种新的分析工具。这个项目的一个组成部分是开发和实现一个评估模型的过程。最终产品将成为评估减少贸易壁垒和跨国活动的政策的有用工具。最后一个项目将设法加强动态开放经济模式和静态贸易模式之间的脆弱联系，方法是发展一个多国贸易模式，其中考虑到贸易调整可能需要时间。以这一框架为基础，拟议的项目将研究贸易对宏观经济冲击的动态调整，以及贸易对这些冲击反应迟缓对福利的影响。拟议的研究将提供一个框架来分析塑造经济一体化收益的主要力量。它还将为利用丰富的国际贸易数据和了解世界经济的运作提供必要的工具。这些工具的一部分将被整合到国际金融本科课程的材料中。经济一体化的障碍和经济福利之间的简单联系是由这个研究议程衍生出来的，它绕过了经济理论的各种抽象，从政策的角度来看是一个有用的工具。因此，它不仅是未来经济学家的理想教育材料，也是一个相互依存的世界中政策制定者和其他未来领导人的理想教育材料。