Firm Heterogeneity and Firm Exporting Dynamics

企业异质性和企业出口动态

• 批准号: 0921673
• 负责人: Konstantinos Arkolakis
• 金额: $ 13.64万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-15 至 2012-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0921673&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Firm; Heterogeneity; Exporting; Dynamics

The project will model and study the dynamic behavior of exporting firms in a global economic environment. To this end, the project will make use of both theory and empirical data. First, it will extend the workhorse theoretical trade framework with firm heterogeneity. More precisely, it will model the demand that firms face and add tractable firm-level dynamics into that framework. Second, it will test the results of the theoretical model with well established facts on the dynamics of firm sales. Third, the project will study the sales of firms before and after trade liberalization episodes using detailed data on the sales of Brazilian exporting firms into individual destinations. Over the past decades, models that employ a constant elasticity "love for variety" demand have become an extremely useful tool in the theory of international trade. However, recent research has shown that these models cannot explain the large growth rates of goods and firms with little, but positive, trade before liberalization. This project will develop alternative demand formulations that have the desirable properties of the "love for variety" demand framework and are also able to tackle with its main quandaries. Moreover, the project will make use of rich datasets to look at the predictions of these new models.Objectives and intellectual merit: The aim of this project is to illuminate the behavior of exporting firms over time and after trade liberalization episodes. The grantee, together with his co-authors, aims to develop theoretical frameworks that model the demand side of the firm in a setting with firm-level dynamics. Previous theoretical results show the success of the theory in closely predicting trade flows of goods for the US-Mexico trade liberalization episode. Beyond prior theoretical work, the project has already taken steps on building a theoretical framework that accounts for a series of additional facts on the dynamics of sales of firms. Preliminary results showthat the model with domestic productivity advances can account very well for the turnover and growth in the domestic market as well as for a large part of the observed turnover and growth into individual destinations. By using this modeling framework and Brazilian firm-level data on exporting sales by destination, the project will shed light to the behavior of exporters in trade liberalization episodes. Additionally, the project will develop a theoretical framework where exporters learn the foreign demand in order to study the implications of learning on dynamic exporting decisions.Broader Impact: The vast increase of trade flows over the past decades have put the public debate for global integration in the forefront. The findings of this project will be relevant to the evaluation of trade liberalization episodes in predicting which firms and sectors are mostly affected by these events. Given that firms having small sales tend to grow fast, predictions on their sales become critical for policy analysis.

该项目将模拟和研究出口公司在全球经济环境中的动态行为。为此，该项目将利用理论和经验数据。首先，它将扩展的主力理论贸易框架与企业异质性。更准确地说，它将模拟企业面临的需求，并将易于处理的企业层面的动态纳入该框架。第二，它将测试的结果，理论模型与完善的事实上的动态公司销售。第三，该项目将利用巴西出口公司向个别目的地销售的详细数据，研究贸易自由化前后公司的销售情况。在过去的几十年里，模型采用了一个恒定的弹性“对多样性的热爱”的需求已经成为一个非常有用的工具，在国际贸易理论。然而，最近的研究表明，这些模型无法解释自由化之前贸易很少但为正的商品和公司的高增长率。该项目将开发替代需求公式，这些公式具有“对多样性的热爱”需求框架的理想特性，也能够解决其主要困境。此外，还将利用丰富的数据集，对这些新模型的预测进行研究。目的和学术价值：本研究的目的是阐明出口企业在贸易自由化后的长期行为。受赠人，连同他的合著者，旨在制定理论框架，模型的需求方的公司在一个设置与公司层面的动态。以往的理论结果表明，成功的理论在密切预测的商品贸易流的美国-墨西哥贸易自由化插曲。除了以前的理论工作，该项目已经采取步骤建立一个理论框架，解释了一系列关于公司销售动态的额外事实。初步结果表明，模型与国内生产率的进步，可以很好地解释营业额和增长，在国内市场，以及观察到的营业额和增长到个别目的地的很大一部分。通过使用这一建模框架和巴西企业层面的出口销售数据，该项目将揭示出口商在贸易自由化时期的行为。此外，本项目还将开发一个理论框架，使出口商能够了解外国需求，从而研究学习对动态出口决策的影响。更广泛的影响：过去几十年来，贸易流量的大幅增加使公众对全球一体化的讨论处于最前沿。这一项目的研究结果将有助于评估贸易自由化事件，预测哪些公司和部门受这些事件的影响最大。鉴于销售额小的企业往往增长迅速，对其销售额的预测对政策分析至关重要。