Modeling the Effects of Species Range Shifts

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Climate change is having a profound effect on many organisms. The purpose of this project is to develop, analyze, and use a new class of mechanistic models, integrodifference equations, that include growth, dispersal, and climate-driven range shifts in order to study and predict the effects of climate change on animal and plant populations. Integrodifference equations reduce the problem of determining the persistence of a population in a changing environment to a simple eigenvalue problem. Researchers will analyze the effects of climate-driven range shifts on age- and stage-structured populations with complex life histories, perform analyses of two-dimensional range-shift models on realistic geometries, build and analyze models with explicit habitat quality functions, and build and analyze range-shift models that contain interspecific interactions. Sensitivity analyses will be performed in order to determine which demographic stages have the strongest influence on persistence in a changing environment.The Earth is getting warmer. In response to this warming, many species have shifted their ranges poleward in latitude or upward in elevation. The purpose of this project is to develop mathematical models and tools that will help us determine which species can continue to keep pace with climate-driven habitat shifts and which species are at risk. Researchers will start with models that include growth and demography, dispersal, and climate-driven spatial shifts and extend these models to include age and stage structure, complicated life histories, population interactions, habitat quality, and realistic geometries. These extensions will help us more accurately assess the effects of climate change on animal and plant populations.