CNH: Experimental Frameworks for Evaluating Net Effects of Hydrologic Service Payments on Coupled Social-Ecohydrological Systems

随着全球对水资源短缺和水质下降的担忧与日俱增，水文服务付费(PHS)计划为确保清洁和充足的水提供了一种潜在的解决方案。然而，由于小灵通项目试图同时影响人类行为和环境，它们极其复杂，而且缺乏最大化其有效性所需的科学理解。该项目的目标是分析墨西哥小灵通计划的相互作用的社会、经济、生态、水文和政策影响，这些计划已经运行了十多年，因此是世界上运行时间最长的计划之一。该项目将侧重于在韦拉克鲁斯哈拉帕和科泰佩克附近的Pixquiac和Gavilanes分水岭内运营的两种类型的小灵通计划：1)由墨西哥政府集中组织和管理的“国家”计划；2)地方“匹配”计划，要求不同的当地机构更多地参与计划的融资、规划和执行。将结合实地数据收集和建模来评估小灵通项目对水和其他(如生物多样性、碳)生态系统服务的影响。访谈和调查将被用来评估两个小灵通计划(国家和地方)对人们决策的影响，以及与其他社会品质的互动，如公平和幸福感、健康、收入机会和社会组织。为人类和自然系统收集的信息将通过应用空间绘图工具、流域建模和涉及多个行为者的参与性讲习班进行整合，以确定决定小灵通计划长期成功和成本效益权衡的关键因素。这一综合办法还将用于测试不同的PHS政策和土地利用变化情景对生态系统服务和流域长期可持续性的影响。该项目将为提高社会保护水资源的能力做出重大贡献，方法是开发一种跨学科的方法，以了解小灵通政策如何影响它们试图影响的人类和自然系统，以及它们是如何影响这些系统的。此外，这项研究的一个重要方面是，它将提高目前关于PHS计划的知识水平，以涵盖流域可持续发展这一更大的概念，到目前为止，这还不是PHS的一个组成部分，但对保护水资源至关重要。成果将被纳入两个以科学为基础的决策支持工具，供土地所有者和决策者使用，以实现预期的流域管理和政策目标，同时避免意想不到的后果：提供关于流域健康的简明信息的综合可持续性指数，以及在空间上纳入土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响及其与人与自然耦合系统的关系的基于地理信息系统的绘图框架。鉴于小灵通项目正在迅速成为全球解决与供水和水质相关的关键环境问题的重要政策机制，这项研究的发现将有助于指导全球更有效的小灵通政策的设计，从而产生广泛的影响。为了确保这项研究在当地和全球的成功应用，研究结果将通过不同的门户网站广泛传播，包括政策论坛、新闻媒体、跨学科和学科科学期刊、关于全球小灵通计划的编辑书卷，以及为中学和大学开发的一系列教育模块和研讨会。最后，该项目将培训和指导一名博士后研究助理、四名研究生和几名本科生，他们都将在水资源管理背景下获得跨学科思考和分析以及可持续发展科学方面的宝贵技能。

As global concern over water scarcity and declining water quality grows, payment for hydrological services (PHS) programs, whereby land users receive payments in exchange for adopting practices favorable to water resources, offer a potential solution for ensuring clean and plentiful water. However, because PHS programs seek to influence both human behavior and the environment, they are extremely complex, and the scientific understanding needed to maximize their effectiveness is lacking. The goal of this project is to analyze the interacting social, economic, ecological, hydrological and policy impacts of Mexico's PHS programs, which have been operating for over a decade and thus represent some of the longest running programs of their kind in the world. The project will focus on two types of PHS programs operating within the Pixquiac and Gavilanes watersheds near Xalapa and Coatepec, Veracruz: 1) the "national" program, which is centrally organized and administered by the Mexican government, and 2) the local "matching" program, which requires greater involvement of diverse local institutions in the financing, planning, and execution of the program. Impacts of the PHS programs on water and other (e.g., biodiversity, carbon) ecosystem services will be assessed using a combination of field data collection and modeling. Interviews and surveys will be used to assess the influence of the two PHS programs (national and local) on people's decisions, as well as interactions with other social qualities such as perceptions of equity and well-being, health, income opportunities, and social organization. The information collected for the human and natural systems will be integrated through the application of spatial mapping tools, watershed modeling, and participatory workshops involving multiple actors in order to identify the key factors that determine the long-term success and cost-benefit trade-offs of PHS programs. This integrated approach will also be used to test the effects of different PHS policy and land use change scenarios on ecosystem services and long-term watershed sustainability. This project will contribute significantly to enhancing society's ability to protect water resources by developing an interdisciplinary approach for understanding how PHS policies both shape - and are shaped by - the coupled human and natural systems they seek to influence. Additionally, an important aspect of this research is that it will advance the current level of knowledge about PHS programs to encompass the larger concept of watershed sustainability, which to date has not been an integral component of PHS yet is crucial to protecting water resources. Results will be integrated into two science-based decision support tools that can be used by landowners and decision makers achieve desired watershed management and policy goals while avoiding unintended consequences: an aggregate sustainability index that provides concise information on watershed health, and a GIS-based mapping framework that spatially integrates impacts of land use change on ecosystem services and their relationship with coupled human and natural systems. Given that PHS programs are rapidly becoming an important policy mechanism worldwide for addressing critical environmental issues related to water supply and quality, the findings from this research will have broad impacts by helping to guide the design of more effective PHS policies across the globe. To ensure successful local and global application of this research, findings will be widely disseminated through diverse portals, including policy forums, news media, interdisciplinary and disciplinary scientific journals, an edited book volume on global PHS programs, and a series of educational modules and seminars developed for both the middle school and university levels. Finally, this project will train and mentor one postdoctoral research associate, four graduate students, and several undergraduate students, all of whom will gain valuable skills in interdisciplinary thinking and analysis and sustainability science within the context water resource management.