Experimentally testing the roots of poverty and violence: Changing preferences, behaviors, and outcomes

人们普遍认为，贫穷和失业的年轻人更有可能打架、暴动和反叛。在利比里亚这样的贫穷国家，政府尤其担心年轻的城市穷人，他们可能特别容易受到武装招募、骚乱或选举暴力的影响。除了加强安全，最常见的政策建议是现金转移和就业计划。这项研究使用了一项针对利比里亚高危青年男子的实地实验，回答了四个问题。首先，贫困和暴力之间是否存在因果关系？虽然有许多理论依据，但微观层面的证据很少，也没有定论。第二，贫穷和暴力有共同的行为根源吗？越来越多的文献认为，目前的偏见、冲动控制和缺乏纪律可能会导致贫困。但暴力行为，无论是工具性的还是情绪性的，也可能直接受到时间偏好和自我控制的影响。如果是这样的话，任何贫困与暴力的关联在一定程度上都是虚假的。第三，像现在这样的偏见以及冲动控制和尽职尽责等非认知技能能否被改变，从而减少贫困和社会不稳定？第四，偏好和非认知技能如何塑造经济和政治行为，以及如何最好地衡量它们？是调查、心理测试还是激励性游戏？这项研究建立在之前的两个实验的基础上，这两个实验表明：(A)就业计划和暴力之间存在一种简化的关系；以及(B)时间偏好与贫困和暴力之间的相关性。然而，他们不能最终回答我们的问题。为了检验这些，本研究对1000名贫困的城市街头青年进行了两项交叉干预：(I)使用集体认知行为疗法的为期8周的转型计划(TP)；(Ii)无条件现金转移。25%的青年随机接受每项单独的干预，另有25%的青年接受两种干预；25%的青年仍作为未治疗的控制组。这次干预的100人飞行员的短期证据证实了我们的预测。虽然小样本的结果很少有统计意义，但方向和大小是有希望的。TP增加了耐心、冲动控制和自律(通过激励性游戏和调查来衡量)；它增加了投资，减少了贫困；它减少了犯罪、政治暴力和人际攻击。现金转移减少了贫困和攻击性，并为将贫困与暴力联系起来的两个主要原因机制提供了谨慎的支持。智力优势：耐心、冲动和自律被认为是成年人固有的品质。我们将通过一个现实世界的项目提供大规模和可持续变化的实验证据。其次，除了表明这些特征是可塑性的，它们的外生操纵还将提供明确的证据，证明时间偏好对经济决策和贫困的因果影响。这项实验的真实世界性质很重要，因为大多数攻击性研究都是基于实验室的心理学研究，而且是针对美国和欧洲的人群。第三，政治暴力的心理基础令人惊讶地薄弱或过时，主要是基于20世纪30年代的攻击性研究。这些结果将扩大对攻击性的心理学理解，挑战传统的政治暴力理论，并有助于开创一个行为政治学领域，很可能是第一个研究暴力的领域。第四，关于贫困对暴力的因果影响，几乎没有令人信服的证据，几乎没有实验性的证据。这项研究直接测试了这一联系，并比较了植根于相互竞争的理论的干预措施。最后，很少有证据比较调查、心理测试和激励性游戏中偏好和非认知技能指标的表现，也很少有神经心理学和经济学指标的比较。广泛的影响：首先，这项研究将对世界各地，特别是非洲和脆弱国家的青年就业和稳定计划的设计和目标产生重大影响。向这样一个高风险群体无条件转移现金的效力和效率的证据是新颖和重要的。改造计划将被手册化，并在网上公开提供，以便于在其他地方复制。这项干预的设计是高度可扩展的，而且成本低廉，是在利比里亚扩大规模的候选方案--这是一个已经在与政府和非政府组织讨论的计划。第二，该研究将为两名研究生、预科学生、利比里亚大学毕业生和硕士学生以及利比里亚政府和非营利部门的几名成员提供研究培训和实地经验的机会。第三，对偏好和非认知技能的新心理学和经济学指标的比较分析，以及对调查、心理和激励措施的比较，将是一项广泛的公共产品，将为整个行为科学的问卷设计和测量提供信息。

It is widely believed that poor and unemployed young men are more likely to fight, riot and rebel. In poor countries like Liberia, governments are especially fearful of the young, urban poor, who may be especially vulnerable to armed recruitment, rioting, or election violence. In addition to increased security, the most common policy recommendation is cash transfer and employment programs. This study uses a field experiment with high-risk young men in Liberia to answer four questions. First, is there a causal relationship between poverty and violence? While there are many theoretical rationales, microlevel evidence is sparse and inconclusive. Second, do poverty and violence have common behavioral roots? A growing literature argues that present bias, impulse control and lack of discipline can lead to poverty. But violent acts, both instrumental and emotional, may also be directly influenced by time preferences and self-control. If so, any poverty-violence correlation would be partly spurious. Third, can preferences like present bias and non-cognitive skills such as impulse control and conscientiousness be modified, thereby reducing poverty and social instability? Fourth, how do preferences and non-cognitive skills shape economic and political behavior, and how best to measure them?surveys, psychological tests, or incentivized games?This study builds on two prior experiments that show (a) a reduced-form relationship between employment programs and violence; and (b) correlation between time preferences and both poverty and violence. They cannot, however, conclusively answer our questions. To test these, this study examines two cross-cutting interventions with 1000 poor urban street youth: (i) an 8-week Transformation Program (TP) using group cognitive behavior therapy; and (ii) an unconditional cash transfer. A random 25% of youth receive each individual intervention and a further 25% receive both; 25% remain as an untreated control group. Short-term evidence from a 100-person pilot of this intervention bears out our predictions. While the small sample results are seldom statistically significant, the directions and magnitudes are promising. The TP increases patience, impulse control, and self-discipline (measured through incentivized games as well as surveys); it increases investment and reduces poverty; and it lowers crime, political violence and interpersonal aggression. The cash transfer reduces poverty as well as aggression, and provides cautious support for two of the main causal mechanisms linking poverty to violence. Intellectual merit: Patience, impulsivity and discipline are thought to be fixed in adults. We will provide experimental evidence of large and sustainable change through a real-world program. Second, in addition to showing these traits are malleable, their exogenous manipulation would provide clear evidence of a causal effect of time preferences on economic decision-making and poverty. The real-world nature of the experiment is important, as most aggression research is psychological, lab-based, and with US and European populations. Third, the psychological foundations of political violence are surprisingly weak or outdated, based largely on aggression research from the 1930s. The results will expand the psychological understanding of aggression, challenge conventional theories of political violence, and help initiate a field of behavioral politics, likely the first to examine violence. Fourth, there is little convincing evidence on the causal effect of poverty on violence, almost none of it experimental. This study tests this link directly, and compares interventions rooted in competing theories. Finally, there is little evidence comparing the performance of preference and non-cognitive skill measures from surveys, psychological tests, and incentivized games, and little comparison of neuropsychology and economics measures.Broader impacts: First, the study will have a large impact on the design and targeting of youth employment and stabilization programs worldwide, especially in Africa and fragile states. Evidence on the efficacy and efficiency of unconditional cash transfers to such a high-risk group is novel and important. The transformation program will be manualized and publicly available online for ease of replication elsewhere. The intervention is designed to be highly scalable and inexpensive, and is a candidate for scaling-up in Liberia?a plan already in discussion with the government and NGOs. Second, the study will be an opportunity to provide research training and field experience to two graduate students, pre-graduate students, Liberian university graduates and masters students, and several members of the government and non-profit sectors in Liberia. Third, the comparative analysis of neopsyhological and economic measures of preferences and non-cognitive skills, as well as the comparison of survey, psychological and incentived measures, will be a broad public good informing questionnaire design and measurement across the behavioral sciences.