Experimentally testing the roots of poverty and violence: Changing preferences, behaviors, and outcomes

人们普遍认为，贫穷和失业的年轻人更有可能打架、暴动和反叛。在像利比里亚这样的贫穷国家，政府特别担心年轻的城市贫困人口，他们可能特别容易受到武装招募、骚乱或选举暴力的影响。除了加强安全之外，最常见的政策建议是现金转移和就业计划。这项研究通过对利比里亚高风险年轻人的实地实验来回答四个问题。首先，贫困和暴力之间是否存在因果关系？虽然有许多理论依据，但微观层面的证据很少，也不确定。第二，贫困和暴力是否有共同的行为根源？越来越多的文献认为，当前的偏见、冲动控制和缺乏自律会导致贫困。但暴力行为，无论是工具性的还是情绪性的，也可能直接受到时间偏好和自我控制的影响。如果是这样的话，任何贫困与暴力的关联在一定程度上都是虚假的。第三，诸如当前偏见和非认知技能（如冲动控制和责任心）之类的偏好是否可以被修改，从而减少贫困和社会不稳定？第四，偏好和非认知技能如何塑造经济和政治行为，以及如何最好地衡量它们？是调查、心理测试还是奖励游戏？这项研究建立在先前的两个实验的基础上，这两个实验表明：(a)就业计划和暴力之间的关系有所减弱；(b)时间偏好与贫困和暴力之间的相关性。然而，它们不能决定性地回答我们的问题。为了验证这一点，本研究对1000名城市贫困街头青年进行了两项交叉干预：(i)使用群体认知行为疗法进行为期8周的转化计划（TP）；（ii）无条件现金转账。随机抽取25%的青少年分别接受单项干预，另有25%同时接受两种干预；25%作为未经治疗的对照组。从一名100人的干预试验中获得的短期证据证实了我们的预测。虽然小样本结果很少有统计意义，但方向和幅度是有希望的。TP增强了耐心、冲动控制和自律（通过激励游戏和调查来衡量）；它增加了投资，减少了贫困；它降低了犯罪、政治暴力和人际攻击。现金转移减少了贫困和侵略，并为将贫困与暴力联系起来的两个主要因果机制提供了谨慎的支持。智力优点：耐心、冲动和自律被认为是成年人的固有品质。我们将通过一个现实世界的项目提供大规模和可持续变化的实验证据。其次，除了表明这些特征是可塑的，它们的外生操纵将为时间偏好对经济决策和贫困的因果影响提供明确的证据。这个实验的现实性质很重要，因为大多数攻击研究都是心理上的，基于实验室的，并且是在美国和欧洲人群中进行的。第三，政治暴力的心理基础非常薄弱或过时，主要基于20世纪30年代的侵略研究。研究结果将扩大对侵略的心理学理解，挑战传统的政治暴力理论，并有助于开创一个行为政治领域，这可能是第一个研究暴力的领域。第四，关于贫困与暴力的因果关系，几乎没有令人信服的证据，而且几乎都不是实验性的。这项研究直接测试了这种联系，并比较了基于竞争理论的干预措施。最后，从调查、心理测试和激励游戏中很少有证据可以比较偏好和非认知技能的表现，也很少有证据可以比较神经心理学和经济学的表现。更广泛的影响：首先，该研究将对全球青年就业和稳定项目的设计和目标产生重大影响，特别是在非洲和脆弱国家。关于向这样一个高风险群体无条件现金转移的效力和效率的证据是新颖而重要的。改造计划将被手工化，并在网上公开，以便于在其他地方复制。该干预措施的目的是高度可扩展和廉价，并且是在利比里亚扩大的候选措施。该计划已经在与政府和非政府组织讨论中。第二，这项研究将是向两名研究生、研究生预科学生、利比里亚大学毕业生和硕士生以及利比里亚政府和非营利部门的几名成员提供研究培训和实地经验的机会。第三，对偏好和非认知技能的新心理学和经济学指标的比较分析，以及调查、心理和激励指标的比较，将为整个行为科学的问卷设计和测量提供广泛的公共利益。

It is widely believed that poor and unemployed young men are more likely to fight, riot and rebel. In poor countries like Liberia, governments are especially fearful of the young, urban poor, who may be especially vulnerable to armed recruitment, rioting, or election violence. In addition to increased security, the most common policy recommendation is cash transfer and employment programs. This study uses a field experiment with high-risk young men in Liberia to answer four questions. First, is there a causal relationship between poverty and violence? While there are many theoretical rationales, microlevel evidence is sparse and inconclusive. Second, do poverty and violence have common behavioral roots? A growing literature argues that present bias, impulse control and lack of discipline can lead to poverty. But violent acts, both instrumental and emotional, may also be directly influenced by time preferences and self-control. If so, any poverty-violence correlation would be partly spurious. Third, can preferences like present bias and non-cognitive skills such as impulse control and conscientiousness be modified, thereby reducing poverty and social instability? Fourth, how do preferences and non-cognitive skills shape economic and political behavior, and how best to measure them?surveys, psychological tests, or incentivized games?This study builds on two prior experiments that show (a) a reduced-form relationship between employment programs and violence; and (b) correlation between time preferences and both poverty and violence. They cannot, however, conclusively answer our questions. To test these, this study examines two cross-cutting interventions with 1000 poor urban street youth: (i) an 8-week Transformation Program (TP) using group cognitive behavior therapy; and (ii) an unconditional cash transfer. A random 25% of youth receive each individual intervention and a further 25% receive both; 25% remain as an untreated control group. Short-term evidence from a 100-person pilot of this intervention bears out our predictions. While the small sample results are seldom statistically significant, the directions and magnitudes are promising. The TP increases patience, impulse control, and self-discipline (measured through incentivized games as well as surveys); it increases investment and reduces poverty; and it lowers crime, political violence and interpersonal aggression. The cash transfer reduces poverty as well as aggression, and provides cautious support for two of the main causal mechanisms linking poverty to violence. Intellectual merit: Patience, impulsivity and discipline are thought to be fixed in adults. We will provide experimental evidence of large and sustainable change through a real-world program. Second, in addition to showing these traits are malleable, their exogenous manipulation would provide clear evidence of a causal effect of time preferences on economic decision-making and poverty. The real-world nature of the experiment is important, as most aggression research is psychological, lab-based, and with US and European populations. Third, the psychological foundations of political violence are surprisingly weak or outdated, based largely on aggression research from the 1930s. The results will expand the psychological understanding of aggression, challenge conventional theories of political violence, and help initiate a field of behavioral politics, likely the first to examine violence. Fourth, there is little convincing evidence on the causal effect of poverty on violence, almost none of it experimental. This study tests this link directly, and compares interventions rooted in competing theories. Finally, there is little evidence comparing the performance of preference and non-cognitive skill measures from surveys, psychological tests, and incentivized games, and little comparison of neuropsychology and economics measures.Broader impacts: First, the study will have a large impact on the design and targeting of youth employment and stabilization programs worldwide, especially in Africa and fragile states. Evidence on the efficacy and efficiency of unconditional cash transfers to such a high-risk group is novel and important. The transformation program will be manualized and publicly available online for ease of replication elsewhere. The intervention is designed to be highly scalable and inexpensive, and is a candidate for scaling-up in Liberia?a plan already in discussion with the government and NGOs. Second, the study will be an opportunity to provide research training and field experience to two graduate students, pre-graduate students, Liberian university graduates and masters students, and several members of the government and non-profit sectors in Liberia. Third, the comparative analysis of neopsyhological and economic measures of preferences and non-cognitive skills, as well as the comparison of survey, psychological and incentived measures, will be a broad public good informing questionnaire design and measurement across the behavioral sciences.