Financial Intermediation, Crises and Aggregate Economic Activity

摘要提案题目：金融中介、危机与总经济活动提案号：SES - 1325679首席研究员：Kiyotaki Nobuhiro本项目研究流动性、资产价格与总经济活动之间的相互作用。特别关注金融中介、危机和实体经济。该项目考察了一系列与政策相关的问题，如(1)是什么导致了金融危机？危机是由资源配置不当还是由银行挤兑引起的？(2)金融不稳定的根源是什么？这与契约的不完全性有关，还是与小企业和家庭在资产市场的有限参与有关？(3)政府应该如何干预？货币和财政政策应该如何以及何时改善金融危机？(4)为什么某些国家（如日本和一些欧洲国家）在金融危机后会经历长期停滞？他们怎样才能避开这样的陷阱呢？该项目将有助于更好地理解金融中介、资产负债表调整和总生产在金融危机之前、期间和之后的相互作用。通过建立一个综合宏观经济和微观经济方法的银行和银行不稳定性模型，该模型可以改进对金融危机的预测，并指出其局限性。对资产负债表调整的分析包括金融和实物资产（如有形和无形资本），从而深入了解金融危机如何导致经济增长放缓。该项目制定了有助于公共政策制定的框架。该项目的结果将建议政策制定者对金融不稳定采取折衷办法。

AbstractProposal Title: Financial Intermediation, Crises and Aggregate Economic ActivityProposal Number: SES - 1325679Principal Investigator: Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro This project studies the interaction between liquidity, asset price and aggregate economic activity. The particular focus is on financial intermediation, crises and real economy. The project examines a set of policy relevant questions such as (1) what causes a financial crisis? Is a crisis caused by misallocation of resources or by bank run? (2) What are the sources of financial instability? Has it to do with contractual incompleteness, or to do with the limited participation of small businesses and households in asset markets? (3) How should government intervene? How and when should monetary and fiscal policies ameliorate financial crises? (4) Why do certain countries (such as Japan and some European countries) experience a long stagnation after a financial crisis? How could they avoid such a trap? This project would lead to a better understanding of the interaction between financial intermediation, balance sheet adjustment and aggregate production before, during, and after, a financial crisis. By developing a model that synthesizes the macroeconomic and microeconomic approaches to banking and banking instability, the model could improve forecasting financial crisis, as well as pointing out its limitation. The analysis of balance sheet adjustment includes both financial and real assets (such as tangible and intangible capital), providing an insight into how a financial crisis may lead to a slower growth. This project develops frameworks which would be useful for public policy making. The results of the project would recommend policy makers to take an eclectic approach to the financial instability.