Credit and Business Cycles

信贷和商业周期

• 批准号: 9320546
• 负责人: Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
• 金额: $ 9.5万
• 依托单位: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-06-01 至 1997-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9320546&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Credit; Business; Cycles

9320546 Kiyotaki One of the major features of the business cycle is the large, persistent, and correlated fluctuations of aggregate output, amount of credit and asset prices. This project will study theoretically how credit constraints interact with aggregate economic activity over the business cycle. In particular, for an economy where credit limits are endogenously determined the research will focus how relatively small, temporary shocks to technology or income generate large, persistent fluctuations in output and asset prices. Also, it is asked how shocks to a particular sector of the economy can transmit to the other sectors so that output and the amount of credit of different sectors move together. A dynamic general-equilibrium model of an economy is developed in which credit constraints arise naturally because lenders cannot force borrowers to repay debts unless debts are secured. The dynamic interaction between credit limits and asset prices is expected to be a powerful transmission mechanism by which the effects of shock persist, amplify, and spill over to the other sectors. This research is important because it will not only provide for a better understanding of the propagation mechanism of cycles through the credit system, but will also provide a useful framework for the empirical studies on business and residential investment and credit constraints. ***

9320546清泷经济周期的主要特征之一是总产出、信贷量和资产价格的大幅度、持续和相关波动。 本课题将从理论上研究在经济周期中，信贷约束与经济活动的相互作用。 特别是，对于信贷限额由内生决定的经济体，研究将侧重于技术或收入的相对较小的暂时冲击如何产生产出和资产价格的大幅度持续波动。 此外，有人问，对某一特定经济部门的冲击如何能够传递到其他部门，从而使不同部门的产出和信贷额一起移动。 一个动态的一般均衡模型的经济中，信用约束自然产生，因为贷方不能强迫借款人偿还债务，除非债务有担保。 信贷限额和资产价格之间的动态相互作用预计将成为一种强大的传导机制，通过这种机制，冲击的影响将持续、放大并溢出到其他部门。 这项研究是重要的，因为它不仅提供了一个更好的理解周期通过信贷系统的传播机制，但也将提供一个有用的框架，对商业和住宅投资和信贷约束的实证研究。 ***