Liquidity, Crises and Stagnation

流动性、危机和停滞

• 批准号: 1917916
• 负责人: Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
• 金额: $ 18.5万
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-01 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1917916&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Liquidity; Crises; Stagnation

AbstractIn the last few decades, especially after the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-10, there has been two major concerns: slower growth of many countries and rising inequality across households within countries. Although there are different proposed explanations for these observations, the key underlying phenomena is the declining growth rate of productivity and worsening labor market conditions for youth. This project explores these issues in relation to the accumulation of firm-specific skills (intangible capital) on the job. The project also looks at systemic risk by considering the role of financial intermediaries. The questions that are explored are reasons of long stagnation after a crisis, the sources of financial instability, and monetary and financial policies that may improve welfare and mitigate financial crisis.The project considers an overlapping generations economy in which skilled workers are essential for production along with unskilled labor. Unlike physical capital, intangible capital (skill) cannot be directly transferred between generations. Young workers accumulate the intangibles through on-the-job training offered by skilled old workers. In the model, inputs are the skill of skilled old workers, the learning ability of young trainees and the amount of time both skilled old workers and trainees allocate for training. The outcome, skill acquired by the young trainees, is subject to idiosyncratic shocks. This project plans to show that when young trainees are not committed to staying in the same firms and repaying their debt, a small difference in initial endowment and ability of young workers leads to a large inequality in accumulation of intangibles and income. Furthermore, a negative shock to endowment or the degree of commitment is expected to generate a persistent stagnation and a rise in inequality. The project also develops a macroeconomic model with financial intermediaries that incorporates anticipated and realized bank runs. This study advances the understanding of crisis events and points out the limitation of predicting crises.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在过去的几十年里，特别是在2007-10年全球金融危机之后，有两个主要问题：许多国家的增长放缓和国家内部家庭之间的不平等加剧。虽然对这些观察结果提出了不同的解释，但关键的基本现象是生产率增长率下降和青年劳动力市场条件恶化。 本项目探讨这些问题与积累企业特有的技能（无形资本）的工作。该项目还通过考虑金融中介机构的作用来研究系统性风险。本课题探讨了危机后长期停滞的原因、金融不稳定的根源、改善福利、缓和金融危机的货币金融政策等问题。本课题研究了在生产中沿着非熟练劳动力的熟练劳动者的世代重叠型经济。与物质资本不同，无形资本（技能）不能在代际之间直接转移。年轻工人通过熟练的老工人提供的在职培训积累无形资产。在该模型中，投入是熟练的老工人的技能，年轻学员的学习能力和熟练的老工人和学员分配的时间用于培训。结果，年轻受训者获得的技能受到特殊冲击。该项目计划表明，当年轻受训者不致力于留在同一家公司偿还债务时，年轻工人在初始禀赋和能力方面的微小差异就会导致无形资产和收入积累方面的巨大不平等。此外，对捐赠或承诺程度的负面冲击预计将导致持续的停滞和不平等的加剧。该项目还开发了一个包含金融中介机构的宏观经济模型，其中包括预期的和已实现的银行挤兑。该研究促进了对危机事件的理解，并指出了预测危机的局限性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy

• DOI: 10.1086/701891
• 发表时间: 2012-03
• 期刊: Journal of Political Economy
• 影响因子: 8.2
• 作者: N. Kiyotaki;John. Moore

A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics

• DOI: 10.17016/ifdp.2017.1219
• 发表时间: 2017-12
• 期刊: Macroeconomics: Aggregative Models eJournal
• 作者: M. Gertler;N. Kiyotaki;Andrea Prestipino

Credit booms, financial crises, and macroprudential policy

信贷繁荣、金融危机和宏观审慎政策

• DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2020.06.004
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Review of Economic Dynamics
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Gertler, Mark;Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro;Prestipino, Andrea
• 通讯作者: Prestipino, Andrea

Banking Panics as Endogenous Disasters and the Welfare Gains from Macroprudential Policy

作为内生灾难的银行业恐慌和宏观审慎政策带来的福利收益

• DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201022
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: AEA Papers and Proceedings
• 作者: Gertler, Mark;Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro;Prestipino, Andrea
• 通讯作者: Prestipino, Andrea