Doctoral Dissertation Research in economics: Examining the Impact of Hybrids on the U.S. Automobile Market

经济学博士论文研究：考察混合动力汽车对美国汽车市场的影响

• 批准号: 1327008
• 负责人: Steven Berry
• 金额: $ 0.92万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1327008&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; economics; Examining

AbstractProposal No: SES - 1327008 Institution: Yale UniversityNSF Program: ECONOMICSPrincipal Investigator: Berry, Steven T.Title: Doctoral Dissertation Research in economics: Examining the Impact of Hybrids on the U.S. Automobile MarketThe goal of the project is to determine the impact of hybrids on the United States automobile market by answering two questions: how much utility have consumers gained from the creation of hybrids, and as a result, how has the composition of the overall U.S. vehicle fleet changed over time?Hybrids, which currently make up a significant and growing portion of the vehicle fleet, have received a great deal of attention in recent years due to their relevance in alternative energy and environmental protection policies. However, while hybrids have factored into discussions on the impacts of gasoline taxes or fuel-efficiency standards imposed on auto manufacturers, the analysis of the overall benefits of hybrids remains incomplete.By using data which track the vehicle holdings of households across a ten-year period, this project will estimate how the creation of hybrids have benefited the nation as a whole, and how much welfare can be expected from further technological advancements in the market. Specifically, the project looks at the period of 1999-2009 and examines the release of the 2004 Toyota Prius and the release of hybrids in general, both of which occur during the observed time. The 2004 Prius is particularly interesting, as it is the first commercially successful hybrid in the United States, and has been the best-selling hybrid in every year. By estimating how consumers might have purchased differently if the Prius and other hybrids had not been available, the research can determine how much value hybrids bring to the market.The datasets used for this project have two distinct advantages over those used in most studies of the automobile market. First, the data track the same households over time. Most of the research done on automobile markets draw on multiple years of data, but take a random sample of households from each year. Since each year of the data contains a new set of households, each family?s unique unobservable tastes (e.g., a love of fast, powerful cars; the resolve to ?drive a car into the ground?) cannot be controlled for in the analysis. As a result, the effect of these tastes merges with the effect of vehicle purchases over time. However, by identifying and controlling for each household over multiple years, this project can control for the tastes effect, isolating the vehicle effect as desired.Second, while most datasets differentiate between vehicles at the level of year, make, and model, the data used for this research also differentiates between gasoline and hybrid trims. Many of the hybrids on the market in the late 2000s are alternative trims of gasoline-powered cars, such as the Honda Civic and Toyota Camry. With this feature in the data, hybrids can be distinguished from other vehicles, making the proposed analysis possible.Additionally, the new model used by the project allows past purchases to directly influence current purchases, a feature not shared by models used by the recent econometrics literature. Previously, estimates of impacts to the vehicle fleet were only applicable ten or more years after the impact, since all consumers needed to be given a chance to respond to the change. By examining past purchases, the model in this project controls for households? tendencies to hold onto cars for several years regardless of impacts to the market, making forecasts two to ten years after the impact possible. The usefulness of the new model is not restricted to the automobile market; it can be applied to many durable-goods markets (e.g., appliances, computers).

摘要提案编号：SES - 1327008机构：耶鲁大学NSF项目：经济学首席研究员：Berry，Steven T.标题：博士论文经济学研究：检查混合动力车对美国汽车市场的影响该项目的目标是通过回答两个问题来确定混合动力车对美国汽车市场的影响：消费者从混合动力车的创造中获得了多少效用，因此，随着时间的推移，美国整个车队的组成是如何变化的？混合动力车目前在汽车中所占的比例越来越大，近年来由于其在替代能源和环境保护政策中的相关性而受到了极大的关注。 然而，虽然混合动力车已经被纳入了汽油税或燃油效率标准对汽车制造商的影响的讨论中，但对混合动力车的整体效益的分析仍然不完整。通过使用十年期间跟踪家庭车辆持有量的数据，该项目将评估混合动力车的创造如何使整个国家受益，以及市场上进一步的技术进步能带来多少福利。 具体而言，该项目着眼于1999年至2009年期间，并审查了2004年丰田普锐斯的发布和混合动力车的发布，这两个都发生在观察的时间。 2004年的普锐斯特别有趣，因为它是美国第一款商业上成功的混合动力车，并且每年都是最畅销的混合动力车。 通过估计如果没有普锐斯和其他混合动力车，消费者可能会以不同的方式购买，研究可以确定混合动力车给市场带来多少价值。 首先，这些数据会随着时间的推移跟踪相同的家庭。 大多数关于汽车市场的研究都是基于多年的数据，但每年都会随机抽取家庭样本。 既然每一年的数据都包含一组新的家庭，那么每个家庭呢？其独特的不可观察的味道（例如，对速度快、马力大的汽车的热爱;把车开进地里？）在分析中无法控制。 因此，随着时间的推移，这些品味的影响与车辆购买的影响相融合。 然而，通过多年来对每个家庭进行识别和控制，该项目可以控制口味效应，并根据需要隔离车辆效应。第二，虽然大多数数据集在年份，品牌和型号的水平上区分车辆，但用于本研究的数据也区分汽油和混合动力装饰。 本世纪末市场上的许多混合动力车都是汽油动力汽车的替代品，如本田思域和丰田凯美瑞。 通过数据中的这一特征，混合动力车可以与其他车辆区分开来，从而使拟议的分析成为可能。此外，该项目使用的新模型允许过去的购买直接影响当前的购买，这是最近计量经济学文献中使用的模型所不具备的特征。 以前，对车队影响的估计仅适用于影响后的十年或更长时间，因为所有消费者都需要有机会对变化做出反应。 通过检查过去的购买，该项目中的模型控制家庭？无论对市场的影响如何，都倾向于将汽车保留数年，这使得在影响发生后两到十年的预测成为可能。 新模型的实用性不仅限于汽车市场，它还可以应用于许多耐用品市场（例如，电器、计算机）。