Quantitative Uncertainty Modeling for Performance Based Earthquake Engineering

地震工程的最终目的是减轻地震对社会的不利影响。这就需要准确预测结构对地震的反应。 由于地震烈度、材料性能、施工质量等诸多因素的未知性，结构的响应存在一定程度的不确定性。在地震工程中，这种不确定性必须量化，并在建筑物的设计中加以考虑，以确保安全。目前，在建筑物的设计中，不确定性是使用经验公式来解释的。 在这个项目中，将开发和演示一种系统的方法来准确计算未来地震中建筑物反应的不确定性水平。一旦该模型被开发和实施，它将提供一种机制，以提高地震反应预测的准确性，最终使工程师能够建造更安全的buildings.Currently，在基于性能的地震工程（PBEE）的不确定性的考虑是简化的，经验的，没有实验验证。本研究的目的是建立一个定量的框架，在PBEE的不确定性传播，并验证它的实验使用一种新的方法称为概率振动台试验。首先，将根据概率论和结构动力学的原则建立一个不确定性传播模型。然后，一个专门设计的振动台测试程序，这将隔离来自不同来源的不确定性的贡献，将进行收集必要的数据来校准和验证这个模型。最后，校准后的模型将应用于改善基于性能的地震设计和振动台试验规划的不确定性建模。该项目将鼓励下一代学生通过三级（8年级，11年级和2年级大学生）学术合作计划从事工程职业。来自不同机构的研究生将受益于一个基于项目的竞争组件开发作为本项目的一部分，研究生地震工程类。

The ultimate goal of earthquake engineering is to mitigate the adverse effects of earthquakes on the society. This requires accurate prediction of structural responses to earthquakes. Because of numerous factors, such as earthquake intensity, material properties, and construction quality that are unknown, there exists a certain level of uncertainty in the responses of structures. In earthquake engineering, this uncertainty must be quantified and considered in design of buildings to ensure safety. Currently, uncertainties are accounted for using empirical equations in the design of buildings. In this project, a systematic method to accurately calculate the level of uncertainty in building responses during future earthquakes will be developed and demonstrated. Once the model is developed and implemented, it will provide a mechanism to increase the accuracy of earthquake response prediction, ultimately enabling engineers to build safer buildings.Currently, consideration of uncertainty in Perfomance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) is simplified, empirical, and without experimental verification. The goal of this study is to develop a quantitative framework for uncertainty propagation in PBEE and verify it experimentally using a new approach termed herein as probabilistic shake table tests. Initially, an uncertainty propagation model will be developed based on principles of probability theory and structural dynamics. Then a specially designed shake table testing procedure, which will isolate the uncertainty contributions from different sources, will be conducted to collect the necessary data to calibrate and verify this model. Finally, the calibrated model will be applied to improve uncertainty modeling in performance based earthquake design and shake table test planning. This project will provide encouragement to the next generation of students to pursue a career in engineering through a Tri-Level (8th grade, 11th grade, and 2nd year college students) Academic Partnership program. Graduate students from different institutions will benefit from a project-based competition component developed as part of this project for graduate earthquake engineering classes.