Quantitative Uncertainty Modeling for Performance Based Earthquake Engineering

地震工程的最终目的是减轻地震对社会的不利影响。这就需要准确预测结构对地震的反应。由于地震烈度、材料性能、施工质量等诸多未知因素的影响，结构的反应存在一定程度的不确定性。在地震工程中，这种不确定性必须被量化，并在建筑设计中考虑，以确保安全。目前，在建筑设计中，不确定性是用经验公式来考虑的。在这个项目中，将开发和演示一种系统的方法，以准确计算未来地震期间建筑反应的不确定性水平。一旦模型被开发和实施，它将提供一种机制来提高地震响应预测的准确性，最终使工程师能够建造更安全的建筑。目前，基于性能的地震工程(PBEE)中的不确定性考虑是简化的、经验性的，并且没有实验验证。这项研究的目标是开发一个在PBEE中不确定性传播的量化框架，并使用一种新的方法来实验验证它，该方法在本文中被称为概率振动台测试。首先，将基于概率论和结构动力学原理建立不确定性传播模型。然后，将进行专门设计的振动台测试程序，以隔离来自不同来源的不确定度贡献，以收集必要的数据来校准和验证该模型。最后，将校准后的模型用于改进基于性能的地震设计和振动台试验规划中的不确定性建模。该项目将通过三级(八年级、十一年级和二年级大学生)学术伙伴计划，鼓励下一代学生在工程领域追求职业生涯。来自不同机构的研究生将受益于作为地震工程研究生课程项目的一部分而开发的基于项目的竞争部分。

The ultimate goal of earthquake engineering is to mitigate the adverse effects of earthquakes on the society. This requires accurate prediction of structural responses to earthquakes. Because of numerous factors, such as earthquake intensity, material properties, and construction quality that are unknown, there exists a certain level of uncertainty in the responses of structures. In earthquake engineering, this uncertainty must be quantified and considered in design of buildings to ensure safety. Currently, uncertainties are accounted for using empirical equations in the design of buildings. In this project, a systematic method to accurately calculate the level of uncertainty in building responses during future earthquakes will be developed and demonstrated. Once the model is developed and implemented, it will provide a mechanism to increase the accuracy of earthquake response prediction, ultimately enabling engineers to build safer buildings.Currently, consideration of uncertainty in Perfomance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) is simplified, empirical, and without experimental verification. The goal of this study is to develop a quantitative framework for uncertainty propagation in PBEE and verify it experimentally using a new approach termed herein as probabilistic shake table tests. Initially, an uncertainty propagation model will be developed based on principles of probability theory and structural dynamics. Then a specially designed shake table testing procedure, which will isolate the uncertainty contributions from different sources, will be conducted to collect the necessary data to calibrate and verify this model. Finally, the calibrated model will be applied to improve uncertainty modeling in performance based earthquake design and shake table test planning. This project will provide encouragement to the next generation of students to pursue a career in engineering through a Tri-Level (8th grade, 11th grade, and 2nd year college students) Academic Partnership program. Graduate students from different institutions will benefit from a project-based competition component developed as part of this project for graduate earthquake engineering classes.