Quantitative Uncertainty Modeling for Performance Based Earthquake Engineering

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

The ultimate goal of earthquake engineering is to mitigate the adverse effects of earthquakes on the society. This requires accurate prediction of structural responses to earthquakes. Because of numerous factors, such as earthquake intensity, material properties, and construction quality that are unknown, there exists a certain level of uncertainty in the responses of structures. In earthquake engineering, this uncertainty must be quantified and considered in design of buildings to ensure safety. Currently, uncertainties are accounted for using empirical equations in the design of buildings. In this project, a systematic method to accurately calculate the level of uncertainty in building responses during future earthquakes will be developed and demonstrated. Once the model is developed and implemented, it will provide a mechanism to increase the accuracy of earthquake response prediction, ultimately enabling engineers to build safer buildings.Currently, consideration of uncertainty in Perfomance Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) is simplified, empirical, and without experimental verification. The goal of this study is to develop a quantitative framework for uncertainty propagation in PBEE and verify it experimentally using a new approach termed herein as probabilistic shake table tests. Initially, an uncertainty propagation model will be developed based on principles of probability theory and structural dynamics. Then a specially designed shake table testing procedure, which will isolate the uncertainty contributions from different sources, will be conducted to collect the necessary data to calibrate and verify this model. Finally, the calibrated model will be applied to improve uncertainty modeling in performance based earthquake design and shake table test planning. This project will provide encouragement to the next generation of students to pursue a career in engineering through a Tri-Level (8th grade, 11th grade, and 2nd year college students) Academic Partnership program. Graduate students from different institutions will benefit from a project-based competition component developed as part of this project for graduate earthquake engineering classes.