CAREER:Integrated Research & Education In Stochastic Systems-Based Watershed Management & Water Safety (SWMS)

1351361(耶加扎里语)。如果不解决地表水的粪便污染问题，就不可能实现水资源的可持续管理，粪便污染是全国水资源受损的主要原因。尽管进行了十多年的研究，但对地表水中粪便来源和污染物的动态仍知之甚少。需要一种基于系统的理论，作为随机流域过程的一部分，可以用来分析水污染模式。这笔赠款的目的是扩大PI正在进行的基于随机系统的流域管理和水安全(SWMS)的研究和教育计划。研究计划的目标是发展一种基于随机系统的流域可靠性(SWR)理论，可靠性定义为符合微生物水质标准，失败定义为不符合。这项工作的基本原理是，SWR理论将可能以概率方式测量流域组成和微生物来源对总体水质的影响，并确定微生物水质最敏感的流域特征和外部环境参数。这将有助于(1)确定产生最大影响的“热点”，(2)量化诸如可靠性、脆弱性和复原力等可持续性指标，所有这些指标反过来又将指导在各种条件下管理措施的优先次序。教育计划的目标是促进对环境系统分析的基于系统和随机方法的理解，并促进在教育、研究和可持续流域管理中广泛使用SWR理论。其理由是，教育计划将(1)培养一批具有系统分析知识的教师和学生，并能够传授和应用他们的知识来解决广泛的环境问题；(2)帮助水资源研究人员、实践者和决策者熟练地利用随机和基于系统的工具，并在概率的背景下参与政策的制定和决策。国际和平研究所希望通过追求三个具体目标来实现她的研究目标。目标1：收集小迈阿密东福克流域(EFW)的粪便污染数据。将使用有针对性的抽样策略为理论测试和验证提供数据。目标2：发展SWR理论并将其应用于EFW。系统可靠性理论用于多部件工程结构的风险评估，将发展到流域污染物输送过程中，并应用于EFW。目标3：计算可持续性指标和指数，并探索它们对各种管理选项的反应。SWR将被用于计算EFW EFW？S地表水的可靠性、恢复力和脆弱性指标以及可持续指数(SI)。将模拟各种管理场景，并分析它们对指标和SI的影响。该提案所采用的方法综合了3个不同领域的最新方法。环境工程提供了量化和预测陆地和河流网络中水流的方法；生态学提供了对流域不同部分微生物种群动态的了解；系统工程为衡量复杂系统中各种组成部分和系统参数的影响提供了一种经过充分检验的方法。这项研究的结果预计将对环境监测和可持续流域管理战略的设计产生影响。它们将在空间和时间上变得更有针对性，因为更好地了解不同系统组件和可持续发展指标之间的相互作用。SWR理论旨在推动该领域的纵向发展，以更好地了解流域特征、外部环境参数以及流域不同部分的微生物传输和相互作用如何影响地表水质量。该项目旨在通过促进学生、教师、研究人员和水资源从业人员理解和采用随机的、以系统为基础的流域分析工具，产生重大的教育影响。

1351361 (Yeghiazarian). Sustainable management of water resources is unattainable without addressing fecal contamination of surface waters, the leading cause of water impairment nationally. Despite over a decade of research, dynamics of fecal sources and contaminants in surface waters is still poorly understood. There is a need for a systems-based theory that can be used to analyze water-contamination patterns as part of stochastic watershed processes. The objective of this grant is to expand the PI's ongoing research and education program in Stochastic Systems-Based Watershed Management & Water Safety (SWMS). The objective of the research plan is to develop a Stochastic Systems-based Watershed Reliability (SWR) theory, with reliability defined as compliance with microbial water-quality standards, and failure as non-compliance. The rationale for this work is that the SWR theory will make it possible to measure probabilistically the impact of watershed components and microbial sources on overall water quality, and to determine watershed characteristics and external environmental parameters to which microbial water quality is most sensitive. This will help (1) identify the "hot spots" exerting the highest impact, and (2) quantify sustainability metrics such as reliability, vulnerability and resilience, all of which will, in turn, guide prioritization of management measures under various conditions. The objective of the education plan is to promote understanding of systems-based and stochastic approaches to analysis of environmental systems, and to facilitate a widespread use of the SWR theory in education, research and sustainable watershed management. The rationale is that the education plan will (1) produce a cohort of teachers and students knowledgeable in systems analysis, and able to teach and apply their knowledge to solve a wide range of environmental problems; (2) help water resources researchers, practitioners and decision makers become fluent in utilizing stochastic and systems-based tools, and engage in policy-shaping and decision-making in the probabilistic context. The PI expects to attain her research objective by pursuing three specific aims. Aim #1: Collect fecal contamination data in the East Fork Watershed (EFW) of Little Miami. A targeted sampling strategy will be used to provide data for theory testing and validation. Aim #2: Develop the SWR theory with application to EFW. Systems reliability theory, used for risk assessment of multi-component engineered structures, will be developed for contaminant transport processes in watersheds, and applied to the EFW. Aim #3: Compute sustainability metrics and index, and explore their response to various management options. SWR will be used to compute the reliability, resilience and vulnerability metrics and the Sustainability Index (SI) for EFW EFW?s surface waters. Various management scenarios will be simulated, and their impact on the metrics and SI will be analyzed. The approach taken in this proposal integrates state-of-the-art methods from 3 different fields. Environmental engineering provides methods for quantification and prediction of water flow over the land and in stream networks; ecology provides understanding of microbial population dynamics in various portions of the watershed; and systems engineering provides a well-tested methodology for measuring the impact of various components and system parameters in complex systems. The outcome of this research is expected to impact the design of environmental monitoring and sustainable watershed management strategies. They would become more targeted in space and in time, as better understanding is gained about interactions between different system components and sustainability metrics. SWR theory aims to vertically advance the field towards better understanding of how watershed characteristics, external environmental parameters, and microbial transport and interactions in different parts of the watershed influence surface water quality. The project aims to have a significant educational impact by facilitating the understanding and adoption of stochastic, systems-based tools for watershed analysis among students, teachers, researchers and water practitioners.