CAREER:Integrated Research & Education In Stochastic Systems-Based Watershed Management & Water Safety (SWMS)

职业：综合研究

• 批准号: 1351361
• 负责人: Lilit Yeghiazarian
• 金额: $ 40.96万
• 依托单位: University of Cincinnati Main Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-01-15 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1351361&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Integrated; Research; & Education

1351361 (Yeghiazarian). Sustainable management of water resources is unattainable without addressing fecal contamination of surface waters, the leading cause of water impairment nationally. Despite over a decade of research, dynamics of fecal sources and contaminants in surface waters is still poorly understood. There is a need for a systems-based theory that can be used to analyze water-contamination patterns as part of stochastic watershed processes. The objective of this grant is to expand the PI's ongoing research and education program in Stochastic Systems-Based Watershed Management & Water Safety (SWMS). The objective of the research plan is to develop a Stochastic Systems-based Watershed Reliability (SWR) theory, with reliability defined as compliance with microbial water-quality standards, and failure as non-compliance. The rationale for this work is that the SWR theory will make it possible to measure probabilistically the impact of watershed components and microbial sources on overall water quality, and to determine watershed characteristics and external environmental parameters to which microbial water quality is most sensitive. This will help (1) identify the "hot spots" exerting the highest impact, and (2) quantify sustainability metrics such as reliability, vulnerability and resilience, all of which will, in turn, guide prioritization of management measures under various conditions. The objective of the education plan is to promote understanding of systems-based and stochastic approaches to analysis of environmental systems, and to facilitate a widespread use of the SWR theory in education, research and sustainable watershed management. The rationale is that the education plan will (1) produce a cohort of teachers and students knowledgeable in systems analysis, and able to teach and apply their knowledge to solve a wide range of environmental problems; (2) help water resources researchers, practitioners and decision makers become fluent in utilizing stochastic and systems-based tools, and engage in policy-shaping and decision-making in the probabilistic context. The PI expects to attain her research objective by pursuing three specific aims. Aim #1: Collect fecal contamination data in the East Fork Watershed (EFW) of Little Miami. A targeted sampling strategy will be used to provide data for theory testing and validation. Aim #2: Develop the SWR theory with application to EFW. Systems reliability theory, used for risk assessment of multi-component engineered structures, will be developed for contaminant transport processes in watersheds, and applied to the EFW. Aim #3: Compute sustainability metrics and index, and explore their response to various management options. SWR will be used to compute the reliability, resilience and vulnerability metrics and the Sustainability Index (SI) for EFW EFW?s surface waters. Various management scenarios will be simulated, and their impact on the metrics and SI will be analyzed. The approach taken in this proposal integrates state-of-the-art methods from 3 different fields. Environmental engineering provides methods for quantification and prediction of water flow over the land and in stream networks; ecology provides understanding of microbial population dynamics in various portions of the watershed; and systems engineering provides a well-tested methodology for measuring the impact of various components and system parameters in complex systems. The outcome of this research is expected to impact the design of environmental monitoring and sustainable watershed management strategies. They would become more targeted in space and in time, as better understanding is gained about interactions between different system components and sustainability metrics. SWR theory aims to vertically advance the field towards better understanding of how watershed characteristics, external environmental parameters, and microbial transport and interactions in different parts of the watershed influence surface water quality. The project aims to have a significant educational impact by facilitating the understanding and adoption of stochastic, systems-based tools for watershed analysis among students, teachers, researchers and water practitioners.

1351361（Yeghiazarian）。 如果不解决粪便对地表沃茨的污染，就无法实现水资源的可持续管理，而粪便污染是全国水资源受损的主要原因。尽管经过十多年的研究，对地表沃茨中粪便源和污染物的动态仍然知之甚少。有必要为一个系统为基础的理论，可用于分析水污染模式的随机流域过程的一部分。该补助金的目的是扩大PI在基于随机系统的流域管理水安全（SWMS）方面正在进行的研究和教育计划。该研究计划的目标是开发一个基于随机系统的流域可靠性（SWR）理论，与可靠性定义为符合微生物水质标准，和失败的不遵守。这项工作的基本原理是，SWR理论将有可能测量概率的影响，流域成分和微生物来源对整体水质，并确定流域的特点和外部环境参数，微生物水质是最敏感的。这将有助于（1）确定影响最大的“热点”，（2）量化可靠性、脆弱性和复原力等可持续性指标，所有这些指标反过来将指导在各种条件下确定管理措施的优先次序。教育计划的目标是促进对基于系统和随机方法的理解，以分析环境系统，并促进在教育，研究和可持续流域管理中广泛使用SWR理论。其基本原理是，教育计划将（1）培养一批具有系统分析知识的教师和学生，并能够教授和应用他们的知识解决各种环境问题;（2）帮助水资源研究人员、从业人员和决策者熟练使用随机和基于系统的工具，并参与概率背景下的政策制定和决策。PI希望通过追求三个具体目标来实现其研究目标。目标1：收集小迈阿密东福克流域（EFW）的粪便污染数据。将采用有针对性的抽样策略，为理论检验和验证提供数据。目标#2：发展SWR理论并应用于EFW。系统可靠性理论，用于风险评估的多组件工程结构，将发展污染物输运过程中的流域，并应用于EFW。目标3：计算可持续性指标和指数，并探索其对各种管理选项的响应。SWR将用于计算可靠性，弹性和脆弱性指标和可持续发展指数（SI）EFW EFW？S的表面沃茨。将模拟各种管理方案，并分析其对指标和SI的影响。本提案中采用的方法集成了来自3个不同领域的最先进方法。环境工程提供的方法，量化和预测的水流量的土地和河流网络;生态学提供的理解微生物种群动态的各个部分的分水岭;和系统工程提供了一个行之有效的方法来衡量各种组件和系统参数的影响，在复杂的系统。这项研究的结果预计将影响环境监测和可持续流域管理战略的设计。随着对不同系统组成部分和可持续性指标之间的相互作用有了更好的了解，这些指标在空间和时间上将更具针对性。SWR理论旨在垂直推进该领域，更好地了解流域特征，外部环境参数，以及流域不同部分的微生物迁移和相互作用如何影响地表水质量。该项目旨在通过促进学生、教师、研究人员和水资源从业人员理解和采用随机的、基于系统的流域分析工具，产生重大的教育影响。