WORKSHOP: Effective Development in Fragile States; University of California, San Diego, June 2015

参与冲突实证研究项目的研究人员正在进行智力套利，将长期以来成功分析非暴力社会和政治互动的方法应用于遭受暴力互动的环境。各种各样的理论模型被用来产生预测，然后以各种方式进行测试。在理论观点方面，研究人员包括那些使用博弈论，代理基础建模，社会学和心理学方法的人。在方法论方面，研究人员使用计量经济学方法，利用观察数据、随机对照试验（包括实验室和现场实验）和深入的案例研究。通过与来自不同背景的学者以及政策制定者的互动，这些研究人员能够推动各自领域的前沿，挑战该领域的共同“智慧”。例如，他们能够证明，在伊拉克，适度的、有针对性的援助项目在减少暴力方面比大型项目更有效。同样，他们也表明，在某些国家，穷人对非国家团体的态度往往比他们的中产阶级同龄人更为消极。这次研讨会将允许在这一领域继续创新。本次研讨会将讨论有关恐怖主义、叛乱、政治不稳定和国际发展的国家政策的核心问题。通过解决这些因素的原因以及检查当前政策的成功或失败，研究人员将为那些将数十亿美元的税收用于援助干预、军事援助和军事干预的政策制定者提供关键的投入。最近在亚州冲突方面的进展证明了将政治经济学的先进理论和经验方法应用于这一研究领域的价值。在为期两天的研讨会中，拥有这些技能的经济学家和政治学家将回顾初步发现，讨论方法上的挑战，并分享最佳实践。此外，这些初级和高级学者将与有前途的研究生以及来自美国军方、美国国际开发署、世界银行、非政府组织和科技行业的专家进行互动。这次跨学科、跨界的会议将激发合作项目，沟通不同的研究方法，让学生接触新的研究，培养新兴学者，并让实践者接触基于研究的技术。这将使研究人员和其他人能够为决策者提供处理脆弱国家冲突的处方。

Researchers involved in the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project are engaging in intellectual arbitrage, applying methods with a long history of succes in analyzing non-violent social and political interactions to environments suffering violent interactions. A variety of theoretic models are used to generate predictions, which are then tested in a variety of ways. With regards to theoretical perspecitves, the researchers encompass those who use game theory, agent base modelling, sociological, and psychological approaches. With regards to methodological approaches, the researchers use econometric approaches using observational data, randomized-controlled trials, including lab and field experiments, and indepth case studies. By interacting with scholars from a variety of backgrounds as well as policy-makers, these researchers are able to push the frontier of their respective fields and challenge common "wisdom" in this area. For example, they were able to show that modest, targeted aid projects in Irag were more effective in reducing violence than larger programs. Likewise, they have shown that poor individuals in certain countries tend to be more negative towards non-state groups than their middle-class peers. This workshop will allow for continued innovations in this area.This workshop will addresses issues that are central to national policies on terrorism, insurgency, political instability, and international development. By addressing both the causes of these factors as well as examining the success or failure of current policies, the researchers will provide key input to policy-makeers who spend billions of tax dollars on aid interventions, military assistance, and military interventions.Recent advances in substate conflict demonstrate the value of applying advanced theoretical and empirical methods of political economy to this area of study. During the two-day workshop economists and political scientists who possess these skills will review preliminary findings, discuss methodological challenges, and share best practices. In addition, these junior and senior scholars will interact with promising graduate students as well experts from the U.S. military, USAID, World Bank, NGO's, and the tech-industry. This interdisciplinary, cross-boundary meeting will spark collaborative projects, bridge different research methods, expose students to new research, train emerging scholars, and expose practioners to research-based techniques. This will allow researchers and others to provide policy-makers with prescriptions in dealing with conflict in fragile states.