Religiosity and Fertility Decline Among European Catholics

在南欧，智力出生率远远低于替代性生育率，平均每个妇女一生生育1.4个孩子。低生育率和低女性劳动力参与率的空前组合挑战了传统的经济人口学理论。其他因素，如教育程度的提高和儿童死亡率的降低，几乎无法解释最近生育率下降的原因。该提案提供的证据表明，自20世纪60年代以来天主教宗教信仰的下降一直是意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙和爱尔兰随后生育率下降的主要原因-自20世纪70年代中期以来，每个妇女的生育率下降了超过一个孩子。此外，我们的初步结果表明，这种下降主要不是由宗教引起的对儿童偏好的改变造成的。相反，机构衰落和社会影响似乎更为重要，例如失去了许多传统上由天主教社区提供的关爱儿童的社会服务，包括学校、医院、日托和社交俱乐部。服务的减少反过来又与20世纪60年代中期第二届梵蒂冈理事会重大改革后修女和牧师的大量流失有关。为了调查天主教社区提供的社会服务(包括有形服务和精神服务)的变化对生育率的影响，和平协会建议将关于生育率和经济变量的数据与天主教社区的宗教信仰和社会服务提供情况的指标合并。这项提案展示了来自欧洲国家小组和意大利近期数据的初步结果。该项目将极大地扩展这一分析。该机构将获取和分析以下数据：ISSP调查的32个国家的天主教宗教社区；美国和加拿大的地区性天主教社区；以及世界价值观调查但不包括ISSP的其他国家的宗教社区。广泛影响了解社会服务的提供如何影响生育率可能对于了解欧洲天主教徒的生育趋势和预测欧洲下一代的人口结构至关重要。此外，其影响不仅限于欧洲5亿居民，甚至全球10亿天主教徒。欠发达国家的人口和领导人把目光投向欧洲，他们想知道，日益繁荣和大量女性参与劳动力市场，是否不可避免地意味着人口老龄化和人口下降。如果像我们猜测的那样，欧洲天主教的生育率迅速下降与其说是因为经济发展，不如说是因为失去了教会提供的有利于家庭的社会服务，那么这些推论可能是没有根据的。如果PI的猜想得到进一步分析的证实，它将具有重要的公共政策含义。宗教团体可能在某些时间和地点强烈支持提供社会服务，但可能需要非常不同的体制安排来支持他们在不断变化或不同的文化中继续提供服务。因此，PI的结论对任何面临快速经济和社会变革的社会可能都很重要，特别是对于妇女越来越多地在劳动力市场机会和她们给儿童保育带来的高影子成本之间左右为难的社会。宗教社区、其他社交网络、市场或政府提供的支持越少，这种紧张关系可能会越严重。

Intellectual MeritFertility rates are far below replacement in Southern Europe, averaging 1.4 lifetime children per woman. The unprecedented combination of low fertility and low female labor force participation challenges conventional theories of economic demography. Other factors such as increased education and reduced child mortality explain almost none of this recent fertility decline. The proposal provides evidence that a decline in Catholic religiosity since the 1960s has been a major cause of subsequent fertility decline in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland - a decline of over a child per woman since the mid 1970s. Moreover, our preliminary results imply that this decline was not primarily caused by religiously-induced change in preferences for children. Instead, institutional decline and social effects appear to be much more important, such as the loss of many child-friendly social services traditionally provided by Catholic communities, including schools, hospitals, day care, and social clubs. Reduced services were, in turn, linked to the large attrition of nuns and priests that followed the major reforms of the Second Vatican Council in the mid-1960s. In order to investigate the fertility effects of change in social services (both tangible and psychic) provided by Catholic communities, the PI's propose to merge data on fertility and economic variables with indicators of religiosity and social service provision in Catholic communities. This proposal presents the preliminary results, both from a panel of European countries and from a cross-section of recent Italian data. The project will greatly expand this analysis. ThePI's will obtain and analyze data for: Catholic religious communities in the 32 countries surveyed by the ISSP; regional Catholic communities in the U.S. and Canada; and religious communities in additional countries covered by the World Values Survey but not the ISSP.Broader ImpactsUnderstanding how social service provision affects fertility may be critical to understanding fertility trends among European Catholics and to projecting European demographics over the next generation. Moreover, the implications extend beyond the half-billion residents of Europe or even the billion Catholics worldwide. The populations and leaders of less developed countries look to Europe and wonder whether increased prosperity and greatly female labor market participation inevitably imply greying populations and demographic decline. These inferences may not be warranted if, as we conjecture, rapid fertility decline in Catholic Europe is not so much due to economic development as it is due to the loss of Church-provided family-friendly social services. If the PI's conjecture is borne out by further analysis it has important public policy implications. Religious groups may strongly support social service provision in some times and places, but very different institutional arrangements may be required to support their continued provision in changing or different cultures. The PI's conclusions might therefore be important for any society facing rapid economic and social change, and especially for societies in which women are increasingly torn between labor market opportunities and the high shadow cost they impose on child care. That tension may be much greater the less support is available from religious communities, other social networks, markets, or governments.