Collaborative Research: P2C2--Multi-Site Paleo-Reconstruction of Missouri River Streamflows from Tree Ring Data

现代对主要河流流量的记录最多只限于最近120年。这些记录反映了年平均流量以及干旱时期，已被用于分配水资源和规划未来的使用。基于树环的数据流重建已经被用来将记录延长到过去。其中最著名的是科罗拉多河，它表明，20世纪20年代用来分配盆地水资源的那段时间是过去五个世纪中最潮湿的时期之一。对萨克拉门托河等其他流域的流量重建表明，过去几个世纪发生的干旱比历史上任何一次都要长得多。这项研究将使用数百年的树木年轮记录来重建密苏里河流域从源头到密西西比河汇合处的径流。这将使用基于贝叶斯方法的创新统计技术来完成。到目前为止，密苏里河流域是美国西部唯一一条尚未通过年轮重建的主要河流源头。鉴于该区域在过去几十年里正面临一系列水资源问题，这些问题受到水文变化--洪水和干旱--的挑战，这一认识差距是至关重要的。提供一个更长的背景，以了解流量和气候控制的过去变化，特别是在十年和更长的时间尺度上，对于预测和管理未来的供水至关重要。密苏里河水系是美国中西部的命脉。研究小组将与美国陆军工程兵团水资源研究所及其上密苏里州盆地办公室合作，开发和测试过去树木年轮重建的河流流量情景，这些情景可用于陆军工程兵团对河流系统业务的不同方面，从而更好地让多方利益相关者讨论如何最好地管理该地区的气候引发风险。这种直接接触将加强研究产品的应用，并为其设计提供指导。为了吸引密苏里河流域源头地区蒙大拿州的用水者，研究小组将为地方、州、部落和国家管理机构人员召开研讨会，目的是建设将科学信息纳入规划和管理的能力。研究小组还将与一个新的NSF EPSCoR项目合作，重点关注蒙大拿州对气候变化的脆弱性，以制作关于水资源的K-12科学模块。

Modern records of gaged flow for major rivers are limited to the last 120 years, at most. These records, which reflect average annual flows as well as periods of drought, have been used to allocate water resources and plan for future uses. Tree-ring based reconstructions of streamflow have been used to extend records back in time. The most well-known of these, for the Colorado River, showed that the period of flow used to allocate the basin's water supplies in the 1920s was one of the wettest period of flow in the past five centuries. Reconstructions of flow for other basins, such as the Sacramento River, have shown that drought much longer than any in the gage records have occurred over past centuries. This research will use centuries-long tree ring records to reconstruct streamflow for the Missouri River Basin for gages from the headwaters to the confluence with the Mississippi River. This will be done using innovative statistical techniques based on Bayesian methodologies. To date, The Missouri River Basin is the only major river headwaters in the western US for which reconstructions from tree rings have not been generated. This knowledge gap is critical given that the region is facing an array of water resources issues that are challenged by hydrologic variability-- both floods and droughts-- over just the past decades. Providing a longer context for understanding past variability of flow and climatic controls on it, particularly at decadal and longer time scales, is critical for anticipating and managing water supplies in the future. The Missouri River system is the life-blood of the American Midwest. The research team will collaborate with the US Army Corps of Engineers Institute of Water Resources and their Upper Missouri Basin Offices to develop and test scenarios of past tree-ring reconstructed river discharge that can be used for different aspects of the Corps' operations on the river system, leading to better multi-stakeholder discussions on how best to manage climate induced risk in the region. This direct engagement will enhance the application of the research products, as well as provide guidance for their design. To engage Montana water users in the headwaters region of the Missouri River Basin, the research team will convene a workshop for local, state, tribal, and national management agency personnel with the goal to build capacity to incorporate scientific information into planning and management. The research team will also partner with a new NSF EPSCoR project with a focus on Montana's vulnerability to climate change to produce a K-12 science module on water resources.