P2C2: Western Pacific Warm Pool Hydroclimate during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Deglaciation

P2C2：末次盛冰期和冰消期期间的西太平洋暖池水文气候

• 批准号: 1404003
• 负责人: Judson Partin
• 金额: $ 53万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-15 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1404003&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Western; Pacific; Warm; Pool

The West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) plays an important role in the global hydrological cycle, and its variability has significant socioeconomic consequences around the world. Understanding past climate conditions can improve predictions of future climate changes in this key region and beyond. This study will extend both the spatial and temporal resolution of paleoclimate data for the WPWP by studying cave formations (stalagmites) for two key periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19,000-21,000 years ago), when the mean climate was much colder than today, and the deglaciation (11,000-19,000 years ago), during which the global climate went through abrupt changes. Comparison between the cave data from a network of sites and model outputs will strengthen the climate interpretations made, and will improve the fidelity of both the reconstructions and the climate models. This study will generate time series of stalagmite d18O, an established proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics, from the Philippines (eastern, central, and western sites), the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. These sites cover a wide range of precipitation variability, as seen during the modern era, and will provide information about past climate variability at sites that currently have little to no data. This study will sample the full range of the WPWP hydrologic response to climate change by reconstructing rainfall from the LGM to the Holocene. The end members of the cold LGM and the warm Holocene provide a measure of how sensitive WPWP rainfall is to global mean temperature. The temporal evolution during the deglaciation reveals the magnitude and spatial pattern of WPWP rainfall changes associated with abrupt climate events, and how much of a role the tropics participate in these events. The proxy data will be compared with various climate model simulations from the CMIP5 and PMIP2/PMIP3 archives and other sources, focusing on the spatial pattern and seasonality of climate changes, as well as the commonalities and diversity of different models. To investigate the teleconnection mechanisms of past abrupt climate changes, additional experiments will also be conducted with an atmospheric model. The proxy-model comparison will help validate climate models, which are being used for future climate projections, and the detailed model analysis and additional experiments will elucidate the mechanism of past abrupt climate changes. The research team will work closely with local scientists in the developing countries of Vanuatu and the Philippines, exchanging knowledge about climate issues and water availability, issues that have societal and security implications for small island nations. The project will provide a research experience an undergraduate student recruited through the GEOFORCE program, which is a selective outreach program of the Jackson School of Geosciences that trains high school students, mainly from demographic underrepresented in the geosciences, and involves them in fieldwork.

西太平洋暖池(WPWP)在全球水文循环中起着重要作用，其变异性在世界范围内具有重大的社会经济后果。了解过去的气候状况可以改善对这一关键地区及更远地区未来气候变化的预测。这项研究将通过研究两个关键时期的洞穴建造(石笋)来扩展WPWP古气候数据的空间和时间分辨率：最后一次冰川盛期(LGM；19,000-21,000年前)，当时的平均气候比今天冷得多，以及冰川消退(11,000-19,000年前)，在此期间，全球气候经历了突变。来自现场网络的CAVE数据与模型输出之间的比较将加强对气候的解释，并将提高重建和气候模型的保真度。这项研究将生成菲律宾(东部、中部和西部)、所罗门群岛和瓦努阿图的石笋d18O时间序列，它是热带降雨量的既定指标。这些站点涵盖了现代所见的广泛的降水可变性，并将提供关于目前几乎没有数据的站点过去气候可变性的信息。这项研究将通过重建从末次盛冰期到全新世的降雨量，对WPWP对气候变化的水文响应的全部范围进行采样。寒冷的末次冰期和温暖的全新世的末端成员提供了一种衡量WPWP降雨量对全球平均温度有多敏感的指标。冰川消融过程中的时间演化揭示了与突发性气候事件相关的WPWP降雨量变化的大小和空间格局，以及热带地区在这些事件中的作用程度。代理数据将与CMIP5和PMIP2/PMIP3档案和其他来源的各种气候模式模拟进行比较，重点是气候变化的空间模式和季节性，以及不同模式的共性和多样性。为了研究过去气候突变的遥相关机制，还将利用大气模型进行额外的实验。代理模型比较将有助于验证气候模型，这些模型正被用于未来的气候预测，详细的模型分析和额外的实验将阐明过去气候突然变化的机制。研究小组将与瓦努阿图和菲律宾等发展中国家的当地科学家密切合作，交流有关气候问题和水资源供应的知识，这些问题对小岛屿国家具有社会和安全影响。该项目将为一名本科生提供通过GEOFORCE项目招募的研究体验，该项目是杰克逊地球科学学院的一个有选择的外展项目，旨在培训高中生，主要是来自地球科学中代表性较低的人群，并让他们参与实地考察。