EAPSI: Assessing the impact of atmospheric observations from Taiwanese aircraft reconnaissance on Typhoon forecasts

EAPSI：评估台湾飞机侦察的大气观测对台风预报的影响

• 批准号: 1408711
• 负责人: Peter Finocchio
• 金额: $ 0.51万
• 依托单位: Finocchio Peter M
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-06-01 至 2015-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1408711&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAPSI; Assessing; impact; atmospheric; observations

Accurate tropical cyclone forecasts are essential for protecting increasingly vulnerable coastal populations worldwide. However, the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts relies on high-quality observations used to initialize weather forecast models, and such observations are particularly sparse over the oceans where these intense cyclones spend most of their lives. To alleviate this under-sampling problem for the numerous typhoons threatening Taiwan each year, Dr. Chun-Chieh Wu of National Taiwan University (NTU) established an aircraft reconnaissance program called DOTSTAR. While DOTSTAR aircraft observations have generally improved typhoon forecasts, it remains unclear which types of aircraft observations produce the most significant improvements. In this study conducted in collaboration with Dr. Wu, experimental forecasts incorporating aircraft observations of temperature, humidity, or wind speed will be used to evaluate the relative forecast impact of including each individual type of observation. Better understanding how different aircraft observations affect typhoon forecasts will help optimize future observing missions both in the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones are expensive, and it is therefore beneficial to optimize such missions by better understanding which observations improve forecasts the most. The proposed study will use DOTSTAR dropsonde observations to investigate the relative impact of thermodynamic versus dynamic in situ observations on typhoon structure and intensity forecasts. A series of simulations will be performed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with a modern data assimilation system to independently assimilate profiles of temperature, moisture, or winds from DOTSTAR dropsondes for a sample of West Pacific typhoons. In addition, a control simulation without dropsonde observations will be performed. Each simulation will be validated against independent observations, global model reanalysis, and best track datasets to evaluate the improvements resulting from assimilating each subset of dropsonde observations. This NSF EAPSI award is funded in collaboration with the National Science Council of Taiwan.

准确的热带气旋预报对于保护全球日益脆弱的沿海人口至关重要。然而，热带气旋预报的准确性依赖于用于初始化天气预报模型的高质量观测，而这些观测在这些强烈气旋度过大部分生命的海洋上尤其稀少。为了解决每年威胁台湾的众多台风的采样不足问题，国立台湾大学（NTU）的吴俊杰博士建立了一个名为DOTSTAR的飞机侦察计划。虽然DOTSTAR飞机观测总体上改善了台风预报，但仍不清楚哪种类型的飞机观测产生了最显著的改善。在与吴博士合作进行的这项研究中，将使用包含温度、湿度或风速的飞机观测的实验预报来评估包含每种观测类型的相对预报影响。更好地了解不同的飞机观测如何影响台风预报将有助于优化太平洋和大西洋盆地未来的观测任务。热带气旋的飞机观测费用昂贵，因此，通过更好地了解哪些观测最能改善预报，优化此类任务是有益的。拟议的研究将使用DOTSTAR投下式探空仪观测，调查热力学与动力学原位观测对台风结构和强度预报的相对影响。将使用天气研究和预报（WRF）模型与现代数据同化系统进行一系列模拟，以独立地同化来自DOTSTAR投下式探空仪的西太平洋台风样本的温度、湿度或风的剖面。此外，还将进行一次没有下投式探空仪观测的控制模拟。每个模拟都将根据独立观测、全球模式再分析和最佳轨道数据集进行验证，以评估同化下投式探空仪观测的每个子集所带来的改进。这个NSF EAPSI奖是与台湾国家科学理事会合作资助的。