A Joint Mathematical and Experimental Study on Cholera Transmission Dynamics

霍乱是一种严重的肠道传染病，在发展中国家，特别是在非洲和印度次大陆，仍然是一个严重的公共卫生威胁。本项目旨在建立一个新的数学和实验框架来模拟、分析、验证和模拟霍乱传播动力学。结合细菌生长、季节变化和空间异质性，该框架克服了当前霍乱流行模型的局限性。为了实现这一目标，我们将引入基于微分方程的新数学模型，开展创新的实验室实验，开展最优控制研究，并进行大规模高性能数值计算。该项目是应用数学与微生物生态学的跨学科合作，集数学分析、实验室实验和数值模拟于一体。该研究将提高我们对霍乱基本动态的认识，其中涉及人类与生态宿主、细菌和病毒之间的多种传播途径和复杂的相互作用，并在全球气候和环境变化下表现出复杂的时空变化。近年来，世界范围内的霍乱疫情及其日益严重、频繁和持续时间的增加，突显了霍乱传播的复杂机制与我们目前对该疾病的定量理解及其控制战略之间的差距。该项目的成功不仅将为了解霍乱动态建立坚实的知识基础，而且还将为公共卫生管理提供重要的指导方针。同时，本项目将对研究生和本科生进行数学流行病学和疾病生态学的理论、方法和应用方面的教育和培训。外展活动将侧重于在教育和社区环境中展示指数增长和教学指数。项目成果将广泛传播给学术界和公共卫生界。

Cholera is a severe intestinal infectious disease that remains a serious public health threat in developing countries, especially in Africa and in the Indian subcontinent. This project aims to establish a new mathematical and experimental framework to model, analyze, validate, and simulate cholera transmission dynamics. Incorporating bacterial growth, seasonal variation, and spatial heterogeneity, the framework overcomes the limitations in current cholera epidemic models. Toward this goal, new mathematical models based on differential equations will be introduced, innovative laboratory experiments will be conducted, optimal control study will be carried out, and large-scale high-performance numerical computation will be performed. The project represents an interdisciplinary collaboration between applied mathematics and microbial ecology, integrating mathematical analysis, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulation. The research will improve our understanding of the fundamental dynamics of cholera, which involve multiple transmission routes and complex interaction among human and ecological hosts, bacteria and viruses, and exhibit complex spatial and temporal variations under global climatic and environmental changes.Worldwide cholera outbreaks and their increasing severity, frequency and duration in recent years underscore the gap between the complex mechanism of cholera transmission and our current quantitative understanding of the disease and strategies for its control. The success of this project will not only build a solid knowledge base for understanding cholera dynamics, but also provide important guidelines for public health administration. Meanwhile, education and training activities of this project will involve graduate and undergraduate students in the theory, methods and application of mathematical epidemiology and disease ecology. Outreach activities will focus on demonstrating exponential growth and teaching exponentiation in both educational and community settings. Project results will be widely disseminated to academic and public health communities.