Collaborative Research--Microscopic Islands: Modeling the Theory of Island Biogeography for Aquatic Pathogens Colonizing Marine Aggregates

岛屿生物地理学理论是现代生态学思想的重要组成部分，它已被数百次引用来解释不同大小和地点的“岛屿”上的定植序列和物种丰富度。这些应用绝大多数集中在大型生物（其中包括蜥蜴、鸟类和甲虫）上，而实际上忽略了微生物。在这个项目中，四所美国研究型大学——老道明大学、佐治亚大学、明尼苏达大学德卢斯分校和康涅狄格大学的研究人员将把这一理论应用于传染病生态学。他们认为，富含有机物的海洋和淡水聚集体（同义词包括：海洋雪、淡水雪、有机碎屑和生物絮团）是水生环境中细菌的“微观岛屿”。这个理论?S在这方面的相关性将通过在现场和实验室的实证研究参数化的分析模型的发展来检验。研究小组（微生物生态学家、传染病建模师、贝类生物学家/生理学家）将采用三步法：(1)设计并实验测试一个适用于单个聚集体（“岛屿”）的岛屿生物地理学分析模型，以预测细菌物种丰富度作为聚集体大小和与病原体点源距离的函数（海洋聚集体物种丰富度）；(2)利用物种丰富度模型的输出构建并实验分析第二个数学模型，该模型考虑了聚集体微生物群落中致病物种的持久性。如果有的话，物种丰富度对持久性的影响也将被确定（海洋聚集物中的病原体持久性）；(3)应用物种丰富度模型和病原体持久性模型的信息，建立基于agent的模拟模型，评估海洋聚集体与公众健康之间的联系。主要研究人员的长期目标是采用社区一级的方法来研究水生环境中的传染病。这项研究的广泛影响是多方面的。所有四所参与大学的研究生将得到培训，并将支持和指导两名博士后研究人员。此外，雄心勃勃的推广工作将为K-12年级的学生开发创新的探究性教材。这些材料倡导传染病的基本生态学原理，有助于填补这一主题可用资源的空白。在这些机构之间，每年接待3万多名学童和教育工作者，为国家科学基金会传染病生态学项目提供了一个庞大而多样化的受众，以传播该项目的互动演示和活动，从而增强公众对科学的理解。

The theory of island biogeography, seminal to modern ecological thinking, has been invoked hundreds of times to explain colonization sequences and species richness on "islands" of many sizes and in many locations. These applications have overwhelmingly focused on macro-organisms (among them lizards, birds, and beetles) and practically ignored microorganisms. In this project investigators at four U.S. research universities -- Old Dominion University, University of Georgia, University of Minnesota at Duluth, and University of Connecticut -- will apply the theory more provocatively: to infectious disease ecology. They argue that organic-rich marine and freshwater aggregates (synonyms include: marine snow, freshwater snow, organic detritus, and bioflocs) serve as "microscopic islands" for bacteria in aquatic environments. The theory?s relevance in this context will be tested through development of analytical models parameterized by empirical studies in both field and laboratory. Using a three-step approach, the research team (microbial ecologists, infectious-disease modeler, shellfish biologist/ physiologist) together will: (1) Design and experimentally test an analytical model of island biogeography applied to individual aggregates ("islands") to predict bacterial species richness as a function of aggregate size and distance from a point source of pathogens (Species richness of marine aggregates); (2) Use the outputs from the species-richness model to construct and experimentally analyze a second mathematical model that considers the persistence of pathogenic species within the microbial communities of aggregates. The effects, if any, of species richness on persistence will also be determined (Pathogen persistence in marine aggregates); and (3) Apply information from the species-richness model and the pathogen-persistence model to evaluate links between marine aggregates and public health with an agent-based simulation model. The long-term goal of the principal investigators is to bring a community-level approach to studies of infectious diseases in aquatic environments. The broader impacts of this proposed research are many. Graduate students at all four participating universities will be trained, and two post-doctoral researchers will be supported and mentored. In addition, ambitious outreach efforts will develop innovative, inquiry-based teaching materials for students from grades K-12. These materials advocate basic ecological principles of infectious diseases, helping to fill a void in resources available for this topic. Between them, these institutions host more than 30,000 school children and educators annually, providing the NSF Ecology of Infectious Diseases program an immense and diverse audience for disseminating this project's interactive demonstrations and activities and in so doing, enhance the public understanding of science.