CNH-Ex: Interactive Effects of Economics, Public Policy, Land-Use Change, and Invasive Plants in the Long Island Sound Watersheds

本研究项目将调查长岛海峡流域公共和经济政策、土地利用变化和入侵植物分布之间的复杂相互作用，包括东北七个州和加拿大魁北克省的土地。一旦完成，该项目将为预测土地利用变化提供一种新的建模方法；基于一组可能的未来土地利用情景的长期植物入侵动态分析并对政府应对入侵物种的最优政策轨迹进行了实证检验。该项目还将提供关于在地方与更高政府层面制定土地利用和入侵物种政策的潜在权衡的实际见解，以及关于管理策略的空间变化如何影响入侵物种丰度的新指导。由于研究人员正在与土地管理者、政府机构、非政府组织和公民科学家进行互动，项目结果将得到广泛传播，并有助于流域社会生态系统的管理，从而增强其复原力。该项目的数据和见解将与新英格兰入侵植物地图集（IPANE）一起广泛提供，并且通过IPANE提供的研讨会和在线工具将向公众提供与入侵物种生物学和相关政府政策有关的问题。有针对性的教育活动将旨在与中学生（特别是女生）和中学数学和科学教师分享跨学科科学的兴奋。该项目还将为本科生和研究生提供特殊教育和培训机会。本项目由美国国家科学基金会自然与人类系统耦合动力学（CNH）项目资助。科学家、政策制定者、资源管理者和公众长期以来一直对了解人类活动、入侵植物和土地利用变化之间的相互作用感兴趣，特别是当他们评估地方、州或区域政策选择对处理入侵植物物种的影响时。由于人类活动、土地利用系统、土地利用政策和入侵植物之间的相互作用在功能和结构上都是复杂的，因此本项目将为利用情景方法预测土地利用变化和入侵物种传播提供方便的工具，并将在多个空间尺度上量化人类活动、政策选择、土地利用变化和物种入侵过程之间未来相互作用的时空不确定性。他们将寻求以下一系列科学问题的答案：(1)未来土地利用如何随着公共和经济政策的变化而变化？(2)入侵植物如何应对未来土地利用和管理策略的变化？(3)是否存在有效控制入侵植物的政策和管理组合，应在何种级别的政府实施？为了回答这些问题，研究人员将开发一套影响土地利用变化和入侵物种管理的经济和政策情景，开发新的土地利用变化模型，改进入侵物种分布建模方法，并完成预测入侵物种丰度的多管辖区政策比较。

This research project will investigate the complex interactions among public and economic policy, land-use changes, and invasive plant distributions in the watersheds of Long Island Sound, which include land in seven northeastern states and Quebec in Canada. Once completed, the project will provide a novel modeling methodology for forecasting land-use change; analysis of long-term plant invasion dynamics over a set of possible future land-use scenarios; and an empirical test regarding the optimal locus of governmental policy in dealing with invasive species. The project also will yield practical insights about the potential tradeoffs in setting land-use and invasive species policies at the local vs. higher governmental levels as well as new guidance regarding how spatial variation in management strategies influences invasive species abundance. Because the researchers are interacting with land managers, government agencies, non-governmental organizations, and citizen scientists, project findings will be disseminated broadly and can assist in the management of watershed-level socioecological systems, thus enhancing their resilience. Data and insights from the project will be widely available in association with the Invasive Plant Atlas of New England (IPANE), and workshops and online tools made available through IPANE will be reach out to the public on issues related to invasive species biology and related government policies. Targeted educational activities will aim to share the excitement of conducting interdisciplinary science with middle-school students (especially girls) and secondary-school math and science teachers. The project also will provide special education and training opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.Scientists, policy makers, resource managers, and the public long have been interested in understanding interactions among human activities, invasive plants, and land-use changes, especially as they assess the impact of local, state, or regional policy choices in dealing with invasive plant species. Because the interactions among human activities, land-use systems, policies, and invasive plants are functionally and structurally complex, the researchers conducting this project will provide accessible tools to forecast land-use change and invasive species spread using a scenario approach, and they will quantify spatiotemporal uncertainty of future interactions among human activities, policy choices, land-use changes, and species invasion processes at multiple spatial scales. They will seek answers to the following sets of scientific questions: (1) How might land use change in the future in response to changes in public and economic policies? (2) How will invasive plants respond to future changes in land use and management strategies? (3) Are there policy and management combinations that are effective at controlling invasive plants, and at what level of government should they be implemented? To help answer these questions, the investigators will develop a set of economic and policy scenarios affecting land-use change and invasive species management, develop a new land-use change model, improve methodology for modeling invasive species distributions, and complete multi-jurisdiction policy comparisons on projected invasive species abundances.