EAPSI: Understanding the impacts of agricultural and urban land use on flood prediction and mitigation

EAPSI：了解农业和城市土地利用对洪水预测和缓解的影响

• 批准号: 1414500
• 负责人: Danielle Grogan
• 金额: $ 0.01万
• 依托单位: Grogan Danielle S
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-06-01 至 2015-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1414500&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAPSI; Understanding; impacts; agricultural; urban

Flood prediction and mitigation are important aspects of watershed management, especially in New England where a 30-year upward trend in floods has been attributed to a combination of urbanization and climate change. In addition to urban development, New England is currently experiencing an increase in agricultural land development. While increases in flood risk from conversion of forests to urban land has been well studied, conversion from forest to agriculture requires further research. This project will investigate the impact that land use change from forest to agriculture has on flood risks in New England, and will separate impacts due to land use change alone, and impacts of combined land use and climate change. This research will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Taikan Oki at the University of Tokyo in Japan. Dr. Oki's lab has developed and validated a flood model that is cutting edge in the field of flood and land-use change research. Compared to forests, agricultural land has less capacity to store water in soil and biomass. The seasonal cycle of water consumption through plant evapotranspiration also differs in agricultural land, with potentially greater water consumption than forests during peak growth periods, but significantly less water consumption during dormant and fallow seasons. Most watersheds contain multiple land use types. Therefore hydrologic watershed modeling can help understand these processes and make predictions about future changes in flood risk due to different development patterns. This study will couple two existing models; the first is a water balance model that represents the land surface and water management through dams, irrigation, and interbasin water transfers. The second is a flood model that predicts flood events, flood water volume, and inundation levels. Each of these models alone could not address the research goals outlined here; coupling the models is therefore a unique solution to understanding and predicting the connections between land use change and flood risks. This NSF EAPSI award is funded in collaboration with the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

洪水预测和减灾是流域管理的重要方面，特别是在新英格兰，洪水的30年上升趋势归因于城市化和气候变化的结合。除了城市发展，新英格兰目前正在经历农业土地开发的增加。 虽然人们对森林转为城市用地所增加的洪水风险进行了深入研究，但从森林转为农业用地还需要进一步研究。该项目将调查土地利用从森林到农业的变化对新英格兰洪水风险的影响，并将单独土地利用变化的影响与土地利用和气候变化的影响分开。这项研究将与日本东京大学的Taikan Oki博士合作进行。冲博士的实验室开发并验证了洪水模型，该模型在洪水和土地利用变化研究领域处于领先地位。 与森林相比，农业用地在土壤和生物量中储存水的能力较小。 农业用地通过植物蒸散消耗的水的季节性循环也不同，在生长高峰期可能比森林消耗更多的水，但在休眠和休耕季节消耗的水要少得多。大多数流域包含多种土地利用类型。因此，水文流域模拟可以帮助理解这些过程，并预测未来的变化，洪水风险，由于不同的开发模式。这项研究将耦合两个现有的模型，第一个是水平衡模型，代表了土地表面和水管理，通过水坝，灌溉和跨流域调水。第二个是洪水模型，预测洪水事件，洪水量和淹没水平。这些模型中的每一个都不能单独解决这里概述的研究目标;因此，耦合模型是理解和预测土地利用变化与洪水风险之间联系的独特解决方案。这个NSF EAPSI奖是与日本科学促进协会合作资助的。