EAPSI: Understanding the impacts of agricultural and urban land use on flood prediction and mitigation

EAPSI：了解农业和城市土地利用对洪水预测和缓解的影响

• 批准号: 1414500
• 负责人: Danielle Grogan
• 金额: $ 0.01万
• 依托单位: Grogan Danielle S
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-06-01 至 2015-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1414500&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAPSI; Understanding; impacts; agricultural; urban

Flood prediction and mitigation are important aspects of watershed management, especially in New England where a 30-year upward trend in floods has been attributed to a combination of urbanization and climate change. In addition to urban development, New England is currently experiencing an increase in agricultural land development. While increases in flood risk from conversion of forests to urban land has been well studied, conversion from forest to agriculture requires further research. This project will investigate the impact that land use change from forest to agriculture has on flood risks in New England, and will separate impacts due to land use change alone, and impacts of combined land use and climate change. This research will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Taikan Oki at the University of Tokyo in Japan. Dr. Oki's lab has developed and validated a flood model that is cutting edge in the field of flood and land-use change research. Compared to forests, agricultural land has less capacity to store water in soil and biomass. The seasonal cycle of water consumption through plant evapotranspiration also differs in agricultural land, with potentially greater water consumption than forests during peak growth periods, but significantly less water consumption during dormant and fallow seasons. Most watersheds contain multiple land use types. Therefore hydrologic watershed modeling can help understand these processes and make predictions about future changes in flood risk due to different development patterns. This study will couple two existing models; the first is a water balance model that represents the land surface and water management through dams, irrigation, and interbasin water transfers. The second is a flood model that predicts flood events, flood water volume, and inundation levels. Each of these models alone could not address the research goals outlined here; coupling the models is therefore a unique solution to understanding and predicting the connections between land use change and flood risks. This NSF EAPSI award is funded in collaboration with the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

洪水预测和缓解是分水岭管理的重要方面，尤其是在新英格兰，洪水的30年上升趋势归因于城市化和气候变化的结合。除了城市发展外，新英格兰目前正在经历农业土地发展的增加。 虽然已经对森林转变为城市土地的洪水风险增加进行了充分的研究，但从森林到农业的转变需要进一步研究。该项目将调查从森林到农业的土地利用变化对新英格兰的洪水风险的影响，并将由于土地利用变化以及土地使用和气候变化的影响而分离影响。这项研究将与日本东京大学的Taikan Oki博士合作进行。 Oki博士的实验室已经开发并验证了一种洪水模型，该模型是洪水和土地使用变化研究领域的最前沿。 与森林相比，农业用地在土壤和生物量中存储水的能力较小。 通过植物蒸散量通过植物蒸散的季节性周期在农业土地上也有所不同，在高峰期生长期间，水的消耗量可能更高，但在休眠和下沉季节期间的水消耗量明显少得多。大多数流域都包含多种土地使用类型。因此，水文流域建模可以帮助理解这些过程，并对由于不同的发展模式导致的洪水风险变化做出预测。这项研究将融入两个现有模型。第一个是一个水平衡模型，该模型代表了通过大坝，灌溉和盆地间水转移的土地表面和水管理。第二个是洪水模型，可预测洪水事件，洪水量和淹没水平。这些模型中的每一个都无法解决此处概述的研究目标；因此，耦合模型是理解和预测土地使用变化与洪水风险之间的联系的独特解决方案。该NSF EAPSI奖与日本促进科学学会合作。