Doctoral Dissertation Research: State Power, Road Development and Internal Violence

这个项目解决了以下问题：在什么条件下，一个国家安全部队的存在和领土范围的增加会增加民众对这个国家的支持？许多学者和政策制定者认为，在政府缺席的地区，叛乱活动猖獗。传统观点认为，在这些抵抗地区增加国家安全部队的存在可以提高政权的合法性，并有助于将民众的支持转向对国家有利的方向。然而，关于国家权力和领土范围影响的经验证据显然是混杂的。PI认为，国家强制权力和围绕非战斗人员支持的社会动态之间的相互作用影响了国家存在的增加如何影响许多国内冲突的动态，特别是民众的支持。如果叛乱分子利用共同的种族身份来动员民众的支持，那么国家安全部队的入侵将证实该组织的动员叙事，从而减少对国家的支持。然而，当叛乱分子在他们的动员叙事中诉诸共同的意识形态时，增加国家安全部队的存在可以有效地阻止民众支持叛乱运动。这两种类型的叛乱冲突决定了安全部队的存在与国家支持之间的关系。该项目利用了印度政府于2000年颁布的一项独特的农村道路发展计划，而该邦目前正面临着印度中部的种族叛乱组织。这个项目延伸到印度中部的比哈尔邦，测量(1)农村道路发展项目如何/是否增加了动乱地区国家安全部队的存在，(2)这种增加的存在是否影响了民意支持的平衡。在阿萨姆邦进行的一项初步调查（于2015年夏天进行）支持了在种族冲突中国家存在会降低民众支持率的假设。在目前的研究中，调查将评估军队和警察巡逻频率的增加是否会增加民众对意识形态冲突中国家的支持。该项目调查了受冲突影响地区村庄的家庭。这些村庄同样有可能得到道路建设的待遇。一半的村庄接受了治疗，一半没有。为了避免社会期望偏差，PI使用项目计数问题和精英访谈。然后，PI将这些数据用于粗化精确匹配研究设计，以显示(1)道路发展增加了国家在一个地区巡逻的频率，(2)这种增加的存在有助于降低在种族动机冲突中对国家的支持，并在意识形态驱动的冲突中增加民众的支持。在此过程中，该项目为这些日益重要的反叛乱战术和战略提供了重要的测试。

General SummaryThis project addresses the following question: Under what conditions do increases in the presence and territorial reach of a state's security forces increase popular support for the state? Many academics and policymakers argue that insurgencies thrive in areas where the state is absent. The conventional wisdom is that increasing the presence of state security forces in these resistive areas improves the legitimacy of the regime and serve to shift popular support in the state's favor. However, the empirical evidence concerning the effects of state power and territorial reach is decidedly mixed. The PI argues that the interaction between state coercive power and the social dynamics surrounding noncombatant support influence how increases in state presence affect many civil conflict dynamic and popular support in particular. If insurgents leverage a shared ethnicity identity to mobilize popular support, the encroachment of state security forces will validate the group's mobilization narrative, decreasing support for the state. However, when insurgents use appeals to a common ideology in their mobilization narratives, an increased presence of state security forces can effectively deter the population from supporting an insurgent movement. These two types of insurgent conflicts condition the relationship between the presence of security forces and support of the state. Technical SummaryThis project leverages a unique rural road development program the government of India enacted in 2000, while the state currently faces ethnically motivated insurgent groups in central India. This project extends to the central Indian state of Bihar a survey measuring (1) how/if rural road development projects increase the presence of state security forces in troubled areas and (2) if this increased presence affects the balance of popular support. An initial survey in the state of Assam (conducted during the summer of 2015) provided support for the hypothesis that in ethnic conflicts state presence decreases popular support. In the current study, the survey will assess whether increases in the frequency of military and police patrols increase popular support for the state in ideological conflict. This project surveys households in villages across conflict-affected districts. These villages had an equal probability of receiving the treatment of road construction. Half the villages received the treatment, while half did not. To avoid social desirability bias, the PI uses item-count questions as well as elite interviews. The PI then uses these data in a Coarsened Exact Matching research design to show (1) that road development increases the frequency in which the state patrols an area, and (2) that this increased presence works to drive down support for the state in ethnically-motivated conflicts and increases popular support in ideologically-driven conflicts. In doing so, this project provides an important test of these increasingly important counterinsurgent tactics and strategies.