Collaborative Research: A Memory based account of cue generation and predictive inference

协作研究：基于记忆的提示生成和预测推理

• 批准号: 1426831
• 负责人: Michael Dougherty
• 金额: $ 31.31万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-15 至 2018-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1426831&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Memory; based; account

Research in decision-making has increasingly focused on the use of heuristics, or short cuts, to describe judgment and decision-making, such as recent work on rationality and fast-and-frugal heuristics. The central purpose of research on fast-and-frugal heuristics is to characterize the various strategies that people employ across a variety of decision tasks, with the goal of understanding the interplay between task structure and strategy use. At the same time, other work in judgment and decision-making has begun exploring the interrelationship between basic-level cognitive processes such as attention and memory and higher-level processes involved in decision-making. For example, recent work illustrates that theoretical models based on long-term memory and working-memory are important for understanding judgment and decision making in a variety of real-world domains, such as medical diagnosis and intelligence analysis. The overarching goal of the present research is to integrate the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach with a judgment model based on basic memory theory. The researchers' goal is to address, both empirically and theoretically, how basic memory processes such as long-term memory and working memory both enable and constrain the use of fast-and-frugal heuristics. The resulting theoretical and empirical research will advance fundamental theory broadly in the area of judgment and decision making.Research on fast-and-frugal heuristics has been amongst the most influential and widely cited work within the area of judgment and decision-making over the past few decades. However, despite the proliferation of research on fast-and-frugal heuristics, aspects of the framework remain somewhat ill-defined. In particular, while the framework relies extensively on constructs from the area of memory, relatively little theoretical and empirical work has pursued this aspect of heuristic functioning. Yet, this is an important component of most real-world judgment and choice tasks, as the input to the decision process often relies upon the output of memory. The proposed work aims to address this gap in the literature by systematically investigating the role of memory in cue-based inference tasks where heuristics such as Take-the-best are assumed to operate. In addition to the project's contribution to the empirical literature, this work will break new ground on theoretical models of decision-making by merging fast-and-frugal heuristics with a memory-processes model of hypothesis generation and judgment. The proposed experiments will provide a detailed analysis of the underlying memory processes that both enable and constrain memory-based inference. The knowledge gained from this research has the potential to impact decision making in applied contexts such as risk communication and medicine, where heuristic rules are implemented as decision aids.

决策的研究越来越多地集中在使用逻辑学或捷径来描述判断和决策，例如最近关于理性和快速节俭逻辑学的研究。研究快速节俭决策学的主要目的是描述人们在各种决策任务中使用的各种策略，目的是了解任务结构和策略使用之间的相互作用。与此同时，判断和决策方面的其他工作也开始探索注意力和记忆等基本认知过程与决策过程中涉及的高级过程之间的相互关系。例如，最近的工作表明，基于长期记忆和工作记忆的理论模型对于理解各种现实世界领域的判断和决策非常重要，例如医疗诊断和智能分析。本研究的总体目标是将快速和节俭的记忆方法与基于基本记忆理论的判断模型相结合。研究人员的目标是从经验和理论上解决基本的记忆过程，如长期记忆和工作记忆，如何实现和限制快速和节俭记忆的使用。由此产生的理论和实证研究将推动基础理论在判断和决策领域的广泛发展。在过去的几十年里，关于快速和节俭决策学的研究一直是判断和决策领域最有影响力和被广泛引用的工作之一。然而，尽管对快速和节俭的烹饪学的研究激增，但该框架的各个方面仍然有些不明确。特别是，虽然该框架广泛依赖于记忆领域的结构，但相对较少的理论和实证工作已经追求这方面的启发式功能。然而，这是大多数现实世界的判断和选择任务的重要组成部分，因为决策过程的输入通常依赖于记忆的输出。拟议的工作旨在解决这个差距，在文献中，系统地调查记忆中的作用，基于线索的推理任务，如采取最好的假设操作。除了该项目对实证文献的贡献外，这项工作还将通过将快速和节俭的数学与假设生成和判断的记忆过程模型相结合，在决策的理论模型上开辟新天地。拟议的实验将提供一个详细的分析的基础记忆过程，使和限制基于记忆的推理。从这项研究中获得的知识有可能影响决策的应用背景下，如风险沟通和医学，其中启发式规则作为决策辅助工具。