Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Changes in Ship-borne Introductions of Invasive Species in Coupled Natural-human Systems: Infrastructure, Global Trade, Climate and Policy

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Ships deliver 90% of the world's goods and link all ports in a global network. That network confers large economic benefits to the U.S. economy, but can also cause unintentional negative side effects including air pollution, water pollution, and the introduction of harmful invasive species. Thousands of species, some of which become invasive, hitchhike in the ballast water of ships and on the hulls and other exposed surfaces of ships. The risk from invasive species differs among ports based on the number of ships visiting a port and the visiting ships' previous ports of call. This project analyzes the global shipping network to discover where the risk of invasion has been high and to identify where the risk may increase as a result of on-going changes in the shipping network. Predictions about past and future invasions will be tested by sequencing DNA extracted from water samples taken in or near ports to detect the presence of potentially invasive species. Large changes in the shipping network are being driven by creation and expansion of new ports (e.g., liquefied natural gas terminals), the expansion of the Panama Canal, changes in ballast water practices and policies (e.g., new rules from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Coast Guard, proposed agreements from the International Maritime Organization), and changes in climate (e.g., opening of Arctic shipping lanes as sea ice declines). Through a formal consultation process with stakeholders, project results about the risk of invasions will inform port managers, ship operators, and policy-makers who can identify opportunities for the most cost effective reductions in risk in order to maximize the benefits of shipping. This project will advance the science of big data networks, improve cutting-edge genetic sequencing methods for environmental samples, and increase the net benefits of shipping via improved information provided to the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and policy-makers. Broader impacts also include interdisciplinary training for undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral researchers, including students from the University of Puerto Rico. This project is supported as part of the National Science Foundation's Coastal Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability program - Coastal SEES.An integrated team of experts in network science, engineering, economics, freshwater and marine invasion biology, genomics, and marine policy will accomplish five goals: 1) develop a Nonindigenous Species Risk Assessment and Prediction System (NIS-RAPS), using novel methods of network modeling and data fusion; 2) calibrate and test NIS-RAPS predictions about invasions using cutting-edge environmental DNA (eDNA) metagenetic methods; 3) use NIS-RAPS to simulate NIS spread under future scenarios, exploring on a global scale how changing infrastructure, global trade, climate, and policy will affect NIS spread via ballast water and biofouling; 4) evaluate the effectiveness of different policies in reducing invasions using NIS-RAPS under future scenarios; and 5) use a Management Transition Board, including national and international policy makers, to choose global change and policy scenarios, and to increase the incorporation of research results into new national and international practices and policies to reduce invasions from ballast water and biofouling.