Introducing a Means to Characterize Location-Specific Space Weather Hazards of Societal Significance in the Near-Earth Environment

这项拟议工作的目标是大大提高我们在近地环境中理解和预测空间天气对社会危害的能力。具体地说，将产生日冕物质抛射与地球电离层、大气和岩石圈相互作用时来自太阳的日冕物质抛射的影响模型。这项工作的应用包括：(1)保护电网免受空间天气造成的停电；以及(2)在空间天气事件期间保持通信能力。2008年美国国家科学院的一份报告指出，极端空间天气事件“虽然罕见，但很可能在未来某个时候再次发生。”然而，很明显，由于重要但脆弱的电子技术(如电网和无线通信)的扩散，1859级空间天气引发的地磁风暴的再次发生可能会对现代社会造成比1859年更大的破坏。拟议工作的方法论涉及应用详细的、过去十年，PI开发了高分辨率麦克斯韦方程--地球-电离层波导的FDTD模型。这些三维(3-D)模型将包括地球地形、海洋、岩石圈组成和电离层等离子体(包括小型和大型结构)等细节。输出数据将是特定位置的电磁场数据，将用于提高我们在空间天气事件期间维持电网运营和通信的能力。

The goal of the proposed work is to greatly improve our ability to understand and predict space weather hazards on society in the near-Earth environment.  Specifically, models of the impact of a coronal mass ejection originating from the sun as it interacts with the Earth's ionosphere and atmosphere and lithosphere will be generated.  Applications of this work include:  (1) protecting the electric power grid from blackouts caused by space weather; and (2) maintaining communication capabilities during space weather events. A 2008 National Academies report indicated that extreme space weather events, "though rare, are likely to occur again some time in the future."  However, it is clear that the re-occurrence of an 1859-magnitude space weather-driven geomagnetic storm could disrupt modern society to a much greater degree than in 1859 due to the proliferation of vital but vulnerable electrotechnologies (such as power grids and wireless communications).The methodology of the proposed work involves the application of detailed, high-resolution Maxwell's equations finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) models of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide developed by the PI over the past decade.  These three-dimensional (3-D) models will include such details as the Earth's topography, oceans, lithosphere composition, and ionosphere plasma (both small and large-scale structures).  Output data will be location-specific electromagnetic field data that will be used to improve our ability to maintain power grid operations and communications during space weather events.