LTREB: Instability, contingency, and global change in a terrestrial food chain

在过去的50年或更长时间里，皇家岛国家公园里的狼和驼鹿数量一直在波动，这是美国最濒危、最具魅力和最具争议的野生动物自然动态的缩影。该项目继续世界上对捕食者及其猎物进行的最长时间的研究，以开发一个新的量化框架，以确定这些波动是由可预测的自然规律造成的，还是由留下持久遗产的意外事件造成的。这一结果将对保护该国的许多野生动物和生态系统产生广泛的影响。即将做出的关于皇家岛狼管理的决定预计将为许多保护区在关键捕食者管理方面设定优先事项。该项目将提供作出适当决定和了解由此产生的后果所需的数据。调查人员有在国会以及地方和州机构作证的经验，为负责任的资源管理提供信息。明智的管理决策也成为公众广泛关注的焦点，该项目的结果将通过网页、博客和其他社交媒体、印刷媒体、志愿者计划、实习、公开演示和电影等多种媒体向公众传达。作为该项目的一部分收集的数据被广泛传播和广泛使用。大量学生和公众将继续参与该项目，学习科学过程和野生动物保护。该项目将评估一系列随机事件在多大程度上可以用一系列随机事件来解释人口波动，这些事件的特征是遗产效应，在长度上与这些事件之间的等待时间相当，以及系列事件中个别事件的不同性质。野外方法包括估计和分析与狼和驼鹿种群的人口学、遗传学和生活史有关的参数。新的统计模型将基于捕食者-猎物理论的基本原理，以及自然规律模型和仅考虑少数重大历史偶发事件(如新疾病爆发、严冬或遗传救援事件)的影响的统计模型之间的比较而构建。分析框架将包括生态学中的几个重要现象的综合：红光光谱、弱密度依赖、引爆点、遗产效应、协同和拮抗相互作用以及生态惊喜。结果将解决长期存在的生态争论，即生态现象是最好地理解为一系列偶然效应还是自然规律的结果。所产生的分析框架将解释为什么生态“惊喜”是常见的，以及为什么种群在很长一段时间内表现出弱的密度依赖。

Wolves and moose on Isle Royale National Park have fluctuated in abundance over the past 50 or more years, epitomizing the natural dynamics of the nation's most endangered, charismatic, and controversial wildlife. This project continues the longest study of predators and their prey in the world to develop a new quantitative framework to determine whether these fluctuations result from predictable laws of nature or from unexpected events that leave lasting legacies. The results will have broad implications for conserving many of the nation's wildlife and ecosystems. A forthcoming decision about the management of Isle Royale wolves is expected to set precedence for many protected areas with respect to management of key predators. This project will provide the data needed to make an appropriate decision and to understand the resulting consequences. The investigators have experience testifying before Congress, as well as to local and state agencies, to inform responsible resource management. Wise management decisions have become the focus of broad public concern as well, and results from this project will be communicated to the public through diverse media including webpages, blogs and other social media, printed media, volunteer programs, internships, public presentations, and films. Data collected as part of this project are broadly disseminated and widely used. Significant numbers of students and the public will continue to participate in the project, learning about the scientific process and wildlife conservation.The project will evaluate the extent to which population fluctuations can be explained by series of random events characterized by legacy effects that are comparable in length to the waiting time between such events and the disparate nature of individual events in the series. The field methods involve estimation and analysis of parameters related to the demography, genetics, and life history of the wolf and moose populations. New statistical models will be constructed based on first principles of predator-prey theory and on comparisons between laws-of-nature models and statistical models accounting only for the influence of a few major historically contingent events such as novel disease outbreaks, severe winters, or a genetic rescue event. The analytical framework will comprise a synthesis of several important phenomena in ecology: reddened spectra, weak density dependence, tipping points, legacy effects, synergistic and antagonistic interactions, and ecological surprises. Results will address the long-standing ecological controversy of whether ecological phenomena are best understood as a series of contingent effects or as the result of laws of nature. The analytical framework produced will explain why ecological 'surprises' are common and why populations exhibit weak density dependence over long periods of time.