Collaborative Research: Improving Model Representations of Antarctic Ice-shelf Instability and Break-up due to Surface Meltwater Processes

冰架是陆地上冰川的漂浮延伸。 它们包围了南极洲 75% 的面积，在调节内陆冰川冰流失到海洋的速度方面发挥着重要作用，从而导致海平面上升。据观察，冰架表面积聚的融水会导致冰架弯曲和断裂，在某些情况下，还会导致大规模的崩塌事件。例如，2002 年拉森 B 冰架几乎完全崩塌，据认为是由于短短几周内 2000 多个地表湖泊的排水造成的。在南极洲的许多冰架上都观察到大面积的积水。 随着大气温度升高，地表融水引起的冰架破裂事件预计面积范围和频率都会增加。然而，未来对此类事件的预测缺乏准确性，因为没有大型冰盖模型能够真实地模拟地表融水引起的冰架破裂所涉及的过程。该项目旨在通过开发大陆尺度冰盖和海平面系统模型（ISSM）的新组件来解决当前建模的局限性，该组件将能够模拟地表融水引起的弯曲、断裂和大规模冰架破裂。通过使用一系列未来气候变化情景来强制模型，该项目旨在更准确地估计南极洲在本世纪剩余时间及以后对未来全球海平面上升的贡献。为了实现该项目开发冰盖和海平面系统模型（ISSM）新模型组件的最终步骤，该团队将首先开发冰架水文-流动-弯曲-断裂的耦合过程规模模型（H3F模型）。这是必需的，因为与冰架崩塌相关的物理现象通常发生在比 ISSM 等大陆冰盖模型捕获的更精细的时间和空间尺度上。一旦 H3F 模型开发出来，它将用于量化地表融水过程、冰流、粘弹性弯曲和水力压裂之间的关系。该团队将通过开发 H3F 模型的机器学习统计模拟器，将这些关系转化为冰盖规模。这种多物理建模方法旨在为小尺度和大陆尺度的地表融水引起的冰架塌陷这一具有计算挑战性的问题提供新的解决方案。该项目更广泛的影响将包括通过开发儿童网络应用程序、与芝加哥艺术家团体互动以及开发 ISSM 外展网页来促进公众教育和参与，以促进在一系列未来气候情景下南极洲冰架崩塌事件的交互式可视化。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Ice shelves are the floating extensions of glaciers on land. They surround 75 percent of Antarctica and have an important role in regulating the rate that inland glacier ice is lost to the ocean, which leads to sea-level rise. Meltwater that ponds on the surfaces of these ice shelves has been observed to cause ice shelves to flex and fracture, and, in some cases, to experience large-scale collapse events. For example, the near-complete collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002 is thought to have been caused by the drainage of over 2000 surface lakes during just a number of weeks. Extensive ponding is observed on many of Antarctica’s ice shelves. As atmospheric temperatures increase, surface meltwater-induced ice-shelf breakup events are expected to increase in areal extent and frequency. However, future predictions of such events lack accuracy because no large-scale ice-sheet model is able to realistically simulate the processes involved in surface-meltwater-induced ice-shelf breakup. This project aims to address the current modeling limitation by developing a new component for the continental-scale Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) that will be capable of simulating surface meltwater-induced flexure, fracture, and large-scale ice-shelf break-up. By forcing the model with a suite of future climate-change scenarios the project aims to deliver more accurate estimates of Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea-level rise over the remainder of this century and beyond.To achieve the project’s ultimate step of developing a new model component for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), the team will first develop a coupled process-scale model of ice-shelf hydrology-flow-flexure-fracture (the H3F model). This is required because the physics involved in ice-shelf collapse typically occurs on finer temporal and spatial scales than captured by continental ice-sheet models such as ISSM. Once the H3F model is developed, it will be used to quantify relationships between surface meltwater processes, ice flow, viscoelastic flexure, and hydrofracture. The team will translate these relationships to the ice-sheet scale by developing a machine-learning-leveraged statistical emulator of the H3F model. This approach towards multi-physics modeling aims to provide new inroads to the computationally challenging problem of surface meltwater-induced ice-shelf collapse at both small- and continental-scales. Broader impacts of the project will include public education and engagement through development of a children’s web application, interaction with a Chicago-based artist collective, and development of ISSM’s outreach webpage to facilitate interactive visualizations of Antarctica ice-shelf collapse events under a range of future climate scenarios.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.