Investigating the influence of thermal history on coral growth response to recent and predicted end-of-century ocean warming across a cascade of ecological scales

全球海洋表面温度上升降低了珊瑚的生长速度，从而对全球珊瑚礁生态系统的健康产生了负面影响。最近对热带造礁珊瑚的研究表明，珊瑚对海洋变暖的反应可能受到它们以前暴露于海水温度的影响-它们的热历史。尽管这些最近的发现强调了珊瑚生长对气候变化的显著变异性，但在珊瑚热历史影响它们如何应对海洋变暖以及它们如何可能应对预测的未来海洋温度升高的空间尺度上，仍然存在不确定性。本研究在四个生态相关的空间尺度上，从珊瑚礁生态系统、珊瑚礁群落、珊瑚礁种群到单个珊瑚群落，研究了热历史对珊瑚生长的影响，以响应最近和预测的海水温度升高。通过了解过去珊瑚在一系列生态尺度上的反应，首席研究员将能够提高预测其易感性和恢复力的能力，然后可以将其应用于面对气候变化的珊瑚礁保护。这项研究项目将扩大代表性不足群体的本科生的参与，并利用少数群体的声音和叙述教育公共广播听众。这位科学家将利用现有的和新的伙伴关系来招募和培训少数民族本科生，从而使他们能够在佛罗里达州、伯利兹和巴拿马的实地地点附近与高中生接触。通过同侪指导，本科生将把这项研究记录在一个数字新闻网站上，以便向公众传播。这些大学生和科学家的声音将为制作一个公共广播专题节目打下基础，探讨珊瑚礁生态系统的适应和恢复能力，即适应压力的能力。该项目将为一名博士后和几名研究生提供实地和实验室研究培训、教学和指导以及专业发展的机会。研究结果将使佛罗里达州、中美洲堡礁系统国家和几个中美洲国家的决策者受益于加勒比海规模的推论，这些推论包括珊瑚的生理能力，从而改善该地区的珊瑚礁管理。由于各种局部和全球范围的人为压力，珊瑚礁处于重大风险之中。虽然各种压力因素导致观察到的珊瑚礁健康下降，但最近的研究强调，由于大气二氧化碳浓度增加而导致的海水温度上升是影响珊瑚生长速度的最重要压力因素之一。然而，由于珊瑚对环境压力的生长反应可能取决于描述的尺度，因此越来越多的人认识到尺度问题。本研究将探讨以下研究问题：(1)过去海水温度对珊瑚礁生态系统（美国佛罗里达礁岛、伯利兹堡礁系统、巴拿马博卡斯德尔托罗珊瑚礁群）、珊瑚礁群落（近海和近海珊瑚礁）、珊瑚礁种群（个体珊瑚礁）和珊瑚礁附近群落（个体种群）的影响是如何变化的？(2)海水温度如何影响珊瑚的生长速率，海水温度与珊瑚生长的关系在这四个生态空间尺度上如何变化？(3)在四个生态空间尺度上，海水温度-珊瑚生长关系能否预测世纪末海洋变暖下的珊瑚生长率？长期海面温度记录和小规模高分辨率海水温度原位测量将与造礁珊瑚Siderastrea siderea和Orbicella faveolata的生长年代学进行比较，这两种关键物种普遍分布在加勒比海。营养物质和辐照度将通过卫星观测、现场测量和已建立的比色方案进行量化。现场和实验室实验将结合起来，在四个生态相关的空间尺度上，在最近和预测的本世纪末海洋变暖的情况下，检查海水温度与珊瑚生长的关系。这项研究的发现将帮助我们在生态相关的空间尺度上弥合温度-珊瑚生长响应的差距，从而提高我们对珊瑚如何应对最近变暖的理解。这将有助于对未来珊瑚生长对气候变化的反应做出更有意义的预测。

Rising global ocean surface temperatures have reduced coral growth rates, thereby negatively impacting the health of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Recent studies on tropical reef building corals reveal that corals' growth in response to ocean warming may be influenced by their previous seawater temperature exposure - their thermal history. Although these recent findings highlight significant variability in coral growth in response to climate change, uncertainty remains as to the spatial scale at which corals' thermal history influences how they have responded to ocean warming and how they will likely respond to predicted future increases in ocean temperature. This study investigates the influence of thermal history on coral growth in response to recent and predicted seawater temperatures increases across four ecologically relevant spatial scales ranging from reef ecosystems, to reef communities, to reef populations, to an individual coral colony. By understanding how corals have responded in the past across a range of ecological scales, the Principal Investigator will be able to improve the ability to predict their susceptibility and resilience, which could then be applied to coral reef conservation in the face of climate change. This research project will broaden the participation of undergraduates from underrepresented groups and educate public radio listeners using minority voices and narratives. The scientist will leverage current and new partnerships to recruit and train minority undergraduates, thus allowing them to engage high school students near field sites in Florida, Belize, and Panama. Through peer advising, undergraduates will document this research on a digital news site for dissemination to the public. The voice of the undergraduates and scientist will ground the production of a public radio feature exploring the topic of acclimatization and resilience - a capacity for stress tolerance within coral reef ecosystems. This project will provide a postdoctoral researcher and several graduate students with opportunities for field and laboratory research training, teaching and mentoring, and professional development. The results will allow policy makers from Florida, the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System countries, and several Central American countries to benefit from Caribbean-scale inferences that incorporate corals' physiological abilities, thereby improving coral reef management for the region.Coral reefs are at significant risk due to a variety of local and global scale anthropogenic stressors. Although various stressors contribute to the observed decline in coral reef health, recent studies highlight rising seawater temperatures due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration as one of the most significant stressors influencing coral growth rates. However, there is increasing recognition of problems of scale since a coral's growth response to an environmental stressor may be conditional on the scale of description. This research will investigate the following research questions: (1) How has seawater temperature on reef ecosystems (Florida Keys Reef Tract, USA; Belize Barrier Reef System, Belize; and Bocas Del Toro Reef Complex, Panama), reef communities (inshore and offshore reefs), reef populations (individual reefs), and near reef colonies (individual colonies), varied in the past? (2) How has seawater temperature influenced rates of coral growth and how does the seawater temperature-coral growth relationship vary across these four ecological spatial scales? (3) Does the seawater temperature-coral growth relationship forecast rates of coral growth under predicted end-of-century ocean warming at the four ecological spatial scales? Long term sea surface temperature records and small-scale high-resolution in situ seawater temperature measurements will be compared with growth chronologies for the reef building corals Siderastrea siderea and Orbicella faveolata, two keystone species ubiquitously distributed throughout the Caribbean Sea. Nutrients and irradiance will be quantified via satellite-derived observations, in situ measurements, and established colorimetric protocols. Field and laboratory experiments will be combined to examine seawater temperature-coral growth relationships under recent and predicted end-of-century ocean warming at four ecologically relevant spatial scales. The findings of this study will help us bridge the temperature-coral growth response gap across ecologically relevant spatial scales and thus improve our understanding of how corals have responded to recent warming. This will lead to more meaningful predictions about future coral growth response to climate change.