UNS: Regional Industrial Structure, Economic Resilience and Energy Consumption: Comparative Evaluation, Historical Analysis and Pathway towards a More Sustainable Economy

1510510(莫雷诺-克鲁兹)。对区域经济活动和能源使用如何相互作用的理解是不完整的。我们需要更好地理解这些相互作用，以便能够发展更可持续的经济。在以前的工作中，基于产业结构的区域经济韧性指标被开发出来，特别适合于大规模的区域间比较。此外，还考察了区域产业结构的历史演变如何导致区域能源消费模式的变化。特别是，确定了不同经济部门在塑造区域能源消费模式中所发挥的作用。最后，建立了一个可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型，用于研究能源效率提高对整个经济的能源反弹效应和其他经济影响。目前的项目将1)通过在CGE模型中引入结构调整成本(SAC)的概念，全面评估能效提高的经济影响和反弹效应(例如，照明的能源使用随着照明效率的提高而增加)；2)调查考虑到行业互动的能效冲击如何在整个经济体系中扩散；3)比较相同冲击对弹性排名不同的州的异质性影响。引入SAS将使人们能够更现实地评估一个经济体如何应对能源效率冲击。SAS描述了一个行业在试图调整来自另一个行业的中间投入数量时所面临的困难。此外，还将跟踪外部冲击如何渗透到整个经济中。在能源效率提高的假设下，CGE模型将估计一个经济体行业生产规模的变化。这一变化将投射到较早形成的产业结构网络上。第三步强调各州之间的横向比较。根据之前的对比分析结果，将选择不同弹性级别的状态。同样的能效冲击将在GDP、产业结构、能源价格、能源生产和消费等方面对这些国家产生不同的经济范围影响。这些模拟将揭示经济的各个部分如何应对外部冲击，以及如何通过这一过程表现出“韧性”。为了扩大研究的影响，将开发一个面向学生的参与式游戏，以丰富的基于情景的叙述为基础，并以CGE模型的简化版本为基础。此外，还将与佐治亚理工学院的科学、数学和计算教育中心合作，为非裔美国高中生举办研讨会，并邀请非洲裔美国本科生研究助理(RAS)参与该项目，并鼓励他们作为RAS参与可持续发展领域。

1510510 (Moreno-Cruz). Understanding of how regional economic activities and energy use interact with each other is incomplete. We need to better understand these interactions to be able to develop a more sustainable economy. In previous work, an industrial structure-based indicator for regional economic resilience was developed that is especially suited for large-scale inter-region comparison. In addition, how the historical evolvement of regional industrial structure causes change in regional energy consumption patterns was investigated. Particularly, the roles that different economic sectors have played in shaping regional energy consumption pattern were identified. Finally, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate economy-wide energy rebound effects and other economic impacts resulting from increased energy efficiency was developed. The current project will 1) comprehensively evaluate the economic impact and the rebound effect of increased energy efficiency (e.g., energy use for lighting has increased with every increase in lighting efficiency) by introducing the concept of structural adjustment cost (SAC) into the CGE model; 2) investigate how the impact of an energy efficiency shock diffuses through the entire economic system accounting for industry interaction; 3) compare the heterogeneous impact of the same shock on states with different resilience rankings. Introducing SACs will allow a more realistic evaluation of how an economy responds to energy efficiency shocks. SACs characterize the difficulty that an industry faces when trying to adjust the quantity of intermediate inputs from another industry. Also, how the impact of an exogenous shock permeates through the entire economy will be tracked. Given the assumption of increased energy efficiency, the CGE model will estimate change in the production scale of an economy's industries. This change will be projected onto the industrial structure network developed earlier. A third step emphasizes horizontal comparison across states. Based on previous comparative analysis results, states of different resilience levels will be selected. The same energy efficiency shock will generate different economy-wide impacts on these states in terms of GDP, industrial structure, energy price, energy production and consumption, etc. These simulations will reveal how various segments of an economy respond to external shocks, and how "resilience" manifests itself through this process. To broaden the impact of the research, a participatory game for students will be developed anchored in rich scenario based narratives and underpinned by a simplified version of the CGE model. Additionally, workshops will be held for African American high school students in collaboration with Georgia Tech's Center for Education Integrating Science, Mathematics, and Computing, and involve African American undergraduate research assistants (RAs) will be involved in the project and encouraged to participate as RAs in the field of sustainability.