EAPSI: Identifying Dominant Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Leading to Extreme Precipitation in Mid-Latitudes

EAPSI：确定导致中纬度地区极端降水的主要大气环流模式

• 批准号: 1515444
• 负责人: David Farnham
• 金额: $ 0.51万
• 依托单位: Farnham David J
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-06-01 至 2016-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1515444&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAPSI; Identifying; Dominant; Atmospheric; Circulation

This award supports research to investigate the statistical predictability of extreme precipitation in mid-latitude locations. Atmospheric circulations that enhance the chance of extreme precipitation in mid-latitude locations (e.g. regions of the United States of America) will be statistically summarized and used to advance flood prediction techniques. The work has the potential to improve the accuracy of flood risk assessments and projections, as well as the ability of modelers to forecast mid-latitude extreme precipitation events up to a week in advance. Such improvements could allow for improved decision-making in infrastructure planning and early warning systems in flood prone areas. The project will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Hyun-Han Kwon at the Risk Prevention Center and the Department of Civil Engineering at Chonbuk National University in South Korea. Dr. Kwon is an expert in hydrological modeling at large spatial scales.The work will apply nonlinear dimensional reduction techniques to characterize and classify spatio-temporal structures of the underlying atmospheric variables (e.g. pressure, temperature, and humidity) leading to mid-latitude extreme precipitation. This work aims to provide a benchmark for studies of extreme rainfall mechanisms that can benefit both statistical and dynamical modeling initiatives that seek to 1) forecast extreme precipitation on the daily to weekly timescales, and 2) assess the underlying risk of flooding in a specific region. This project will focus on tropical moisture transports to specific mid-latitude locations (the Northeast US and central Korea), while also pursuing a generalizable product for linking statistical models to atmospheric circulations. Moreover, establishing the conditional dependence of extreme precipitation on atmospheric conditions will allow for more meaningful extrapolation of future risks in a changing climate.This research is funded jointly by NSF and the National Research Foundation of Korea.

该奖项支持调查中纬度地区极端降水的统计可预测性的研究。将对增加中纬度地区(如美利坚合众国各地区)极端降水机会的大气环流进行统计总结，并将其用于改进洪水预报技术。这项工作有可能提高洪水风险评估和预测的准确性，以及建模人员提前一周预测中纬度极端降水事件的能力。这种改进可以改善易发洪水地区的基础设施规划和预警系统的决策。该项目将与韩国全北国立大学风险预防中心和土木工程系的权贤瀚博士合作进行。权博士是大空间尺度水文模型的专家。这项工作将应用非线性降维技术来描述和分类导致中纬度极端降水的基本大气变量(如气压、温度和湿度)的时空结构。这项工作旨在为极端降雨机制的研究提供一个基准，这对统计和动力学建模倡议都有好处，这些倡议寻求1)在每天到每周的时间尺度上预测极端降水，以及2)评估特定区域的潜在洪灾风险。该项目将侧重于热带水汽向特定中纬度地区(美国东北部和朝鲜中部)的输送，同时还将寻求一种可推广的产品，将统计模型与大气环流联系起来。此外，建立极端降水对大气条件的条件依赖性将允许在不断变化的气候中更有意义地推断未来的风险。这项研究由美国国家科学基金会和韩国国家研究基金会共同资助。