RAPID: Understanding and leveraging asymptomatic infections to control Ebola virus transmission

这项研究将建立一个数学模型，以了解无症状感染和保护性免疫在埃博拉病毒传播中的作用。根据他们以前的研究，调查人员已经表明，接触埃博拉病毒的人中有20-60%从未出现临床疾病，并且没有症状。目前尚不清楚无症状感染者是否会获得保护性免疫，以防止未来接触埃博拉病毒。如果无症状感染确实提供保护，这对于了解和减少埃博拉病毒的传播可能极为重要。作为该项目的一部分，研究人员将开发和共享易于使用的开放获取建模工具，供公共卫生政策和研究界使用。研究小组提出了建模和理解无症状感染的五个具体目标。他们将设计和研究可以利用这种保护性免疫作用的公共卫生干预措施。其中一种策略包括建立一个由无症状感染的护理人员组成的潜在劳动力模型，以建立类似于环形疫苗接种策略的病毒屏障。他们将描述无症状感染对疫苗试验设计的影响。他们将利用潜伏过程模型来确定无症状感染是否促成了以前埃博拉疫情的范围和减少，并寻找在埃博拉疫情中是否存在无症状免疫的特征。

This research will develop a mathematical model to understand the role of asymptomatic infections and protective immunity on the spread of Ebola virus. Based on their previous research the investigators have shown that 20-60% of people exposed to Ebola virus never develop clinical disease and remain asymptomatic. It is unclear if a person who is asymptomatically infected gains protective immunity against future exposure to the Ebola virus. If asymptomatic infections do offer protection, this could be extremely important in understanding and reducing the spread of Ebola virus. As part of the project, the investigators will develop and share easy-to-use, open access modeling tools that can be utilized by the public health policy and research community.The research team proposes five specific aims in modeling and understanding asymptomatic infections. They will design and study public health interventions that could leverage the effects of this protective immunity. One such strategy would include modeling a potential workforce comprised of caregivers who have been asymptomatically infected to establish a viral barrier similar to a ring vaccination strategy. They will characterize the implications of asymptomatic infections for vaccine trial design. They will utilize latent process models to determine if asymptomatic infections contributed to the scope and decline of previous Ebola epidemics, looking to see if there is a signature of asymptomatic immunity within an Ebola outbreak.