RAPID: Collaborative: The Legitimacy of Negotiated Peace: Social Preferences, Victimhood, and the Peace Process.

本项目研究基本的亲社会取向和受害者身份如何影响公众对正在进行的和平谈判的潜在结果的支持。和平谈判者必须就监禁时间、真相、遣散、赔偿和重新融入社会政治等问题达成一致。公众舆论对这种结果至关重要，因为任何最终的和平协议最终都必须得到选民的批准。我们通过观察个体的(1)利他主义水平、(2)信任水平、(3)互惠水平、(4)不惜代价维护公平规范的意愿水平来衡量亲社会取向。我们认为受害者的本质是根据犯罪者是谁以及一个人最近和直接受到的伤害。亲社会性和受害者性（及其相互作用）应有助于了解对谈判和平结果的公众舆论形成。以哥伦比亚政府与哥伦比亚革命武装力量（FARC）游击队之间的谈判为例，研究结果将为政治领导人和政策制定者提供经验教训，他们的任务是达成和平协议，并随后设计冲突后的制度，以维持和平和促进社会凝聚力。为了研究社会偏好和受害者的本质如何影响围绕谈判和平方面的公众舆论形成，我们将社会偏好的博弈论行为测量嵌入由专业调查公司进行的大型在线调查中。利他主义是通过独裁者游戏来衡量的。信任和互惠是在信任游戏的背景下衡量的。代价高昂的惩罚，即强烈的负互惠性，是通过第三方惩罚游戏来衡量的。在这些游戏中，受试者被随机分配到一个角色。之后，他们回答了关于(1)哥伦比亚政府-哥伦比亚革命武装力量和平谈判潜在结果的偏好和(2)受害者性质的问题。这两组的顺序将被随机化，以允许对社会偏好的外生性进行部分测试。为了更深入地探讨这一问题以及与受害者身份和对和平进程形成意见有关的其他问题，我们将与波哥大<e:1>和冲突地区的受害者团体进行4次焦点小组讨论。该项目探讨了亲社会性如何影响当代政治中解决冲突的政治。同时，它将检验这样一个命题，即社会偏好对和平与正义的政策偏好的影响不能与冲突后社会受害者的程度和性质分开。

General SummaryThis project examines how basic pro-social orientations and victimhood influence the public's support for potential outcomes of the ongoing peace negotiations. Peace negotiators must agree on issues such as jail time, the truth, demobilization, reparations, and socio-political re-integration. Public opinion towards such outcomes is crucial since any eventual peace deal must ultimately be ratified by the electorate. We measure pro-social orientations by observing individuals' levels of (1) altruism, (2) trust, (3) reciprocity, (4) willingness to uphold fairness norms even at some personal cost. We conceive of the nature of victimhood in terms of who the perpetrator was and how recently and directly one has been victimized. Pro-sociality and victimhood (and their interplay) should help understand public opinion formation towards the negotiated peace outcomes. Using negotiations between the Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) guerrillas as the case of interest, results of the study will hold lessons for political leaders and policymakers who are tasked with both reaching a peace agreement and, subsequently, designing post-conflict institutions to sustain peace and foster social cohesion. Technical SummaryTo study how social preferences and the nature of victimhood influence public opinion formation surrounding aspects of negotiated peace, we embed game-theoretic behavioral measures of social preferences in a large online survey administered by a professional survey firm. Altruism is measured via dictator games. Trust and reciprocity are measured in the context of a trust game. Costly punishment, i.e. strong negative reciprocity, is gauged using a Third-Party Punishment game. Subjects are randomly assigned to one role in each of these games. Afterwards, they respond to question batteries tapping (1) preferences for potential outcomes of the Colombian government-FARC peace talks and (2) nature of victimhood. The order of these two batteries will be randomized to permit a partial test of the exogeneity of social preferences to victimhood. To explore this and other questions related to victimhood and opinion formation towards the peace process more deeply, we will conduct 4 focus groups with victims groups in Bogotá and in the conflict zone. The project explores how pro-sociality influence the politics of conflict resolution in contemporary polities. At the same time, it will test the proposition that the effect of social preferences on policy preferences towards peace and justice cannot be divorced from the degree and nature victimhood in post-conflict societies.