Collaborative Research: Good Booms, Bad Booms

合作研究：好的繁荣，坏的繁荣

• 批准号: 1530209
• 负责人: Gary Gorton
• 金额: $ 16.25万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-09-01 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1530209&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Good; Booms; Bad

The recent financial crisis poses challenges for economists: Models that display financial crises are needed, but these models must be consistent with the robust finding that credit booms precede crises. However, not all booms end in a crisis; some do and some do not. Why do only some booms end in a crisis? Are these different types of booms related to macroeconomic variables, such as labor productivity or total factor productivity (TFP), differently? This is important for determining whether one integrated framework can encompass recessions, financial crises and growth, or whether financial crises are so special that a completely different model is needed. The PIs use both empirical methods and formal modeling to answer these questions. In the empirical part they study macroeconomic and financial panel data. They first identify credit booms and classify them between good and bad depending on whether they ended in a crisis or not. Then they analyze the anatomy of good booms and bad booms to understand their main differences in terms of productivity. They then build a formal economic model that uses a simple framework to explain their empirical results. If a credit boom is not sustained by a parallel increase in productivity, at some point the collateral sustaining the credit triggers information acquisition in credit markets, less credit is available and there is a financial crisis, even in the absence of any negative shock to the economyThe intellectual merit of the project is to show that the explanation of financial crises does not need to rely on contemporaneous shocks, but rather on the dynamic preceding interaction between productivity and credit in the economy. An understanding of this link is essential to identify warning signals that make financial crises more likely. The research can be broadly subdivided into three components. The first is to expand and refine the theoretical framework to provide a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of productivity The second step is to undertake historical and empirical research that documents how productivity evolves differently during credit booms that end in crises and those that do not. The third step is to take a policy perspective, with the aim of assessing how policymakers can distinguish elements of credit booms that make financial crises more likely to evolve.

最近的金融危机给经济学家带来了挑战：需要显示金融危机的模型，但这些模型必须与信贷繁荣先于危机的强有力发现相一致。然而，并非所有的繁荣都以危机告终;有些是，有些不是。为什么只有一些繁荣以危机告终？这些不同类型的繁荣与宏观经济变量（如劳动生产率或全要素生产率）的关系是否不同？这对于确定一个综合框架是否可以涵盖衰退、金融危机和增长，或者金融危机是否如此特殊以至于需要一个完全不同的模型非常重要。PI使用经验方法和正式建模来回答这些问题。在实证部分，他们研究宏观经济和金融面板数据。他们首先确定信贷繁荣，并根据它们是否以危机结束而将其分为好的和坏的。然后，他们分析了好繁荣和坏繁荣的解剖结构，以了解它们在生产率方面的主要差异。然后，他们建立了一个正式的经济模型，使用一个简单的框架来解释他们的实证结果。如果信贷繁荣没有得到生产率的平行提高的支持，在某个时候，支持信贷的抵押品触发了信贷市场的信息获取，可获得的信贷减少，即使在没有对经济的任何负面冲击的情况下，也会发生金融危机。而是取决于经济中生产力和信贷之间的动态相互作用。了解这种联系对于识别使金融危机更有可能发生的预警信号至关重要。这项研究大致可分为三个部分。第一步是扩大和完善理论框架，全面分析生产率的演变。第二步是进行历史和实证研究，记录在以危机告终的信贷繁荣和没有危机的信贷繁荣期间，生产率如何不同地演变。第三步是从政策角度出发，评估政策制定者如何区分信贷繁荣中使金融危机更有可能演变的因素。