The Impact of Dynamically Changing Information on Decision Processes

动态变化的信息对决策过程的影响

• 批准号: 1530760
• 负责人: Jennifer Trueblood
• 金额: $ 34.05万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-01 至 2015-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1530760&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Impact; Dynamically; Changing; Information; Decision

In the course of everyday life, people encounter numerous situations in which they must make decisions where the available information changes over time. The simple act of changing lanes on a busy highway is an example. While at first, the lane looks clear, the next moment another car may have pulled in from the other side. In order to avoid a collision, the decision maker must be able to analyze and respond to the new information. In the past, much of the research on human decision-making has focused on decision-making when information is constant and unchanging. This project takes a joint experimental and computational modeling approach to study the influence of dynamic information on decisions. The work has relevance in day to day life and offers potential benefits for society. Past research has shown that people's decisions are often sensitive to context (e.g., adding a worse option can make another option look better than before). Advertisers can exploit such effects to promote products that may or may not be good for people. This project investigates how dynamic presentations of information can influence context effects and possibly de-bias these decisions. This project also supports increasing diversity in the quantitative social sciences through the promotion of gender equality in mathematical psychology. The research goal of this project is to expand our understanding of how people integrate dynamically changing information. Three key questions are addressed: (1) How quickly do people adapt to new information? (2) How is new information integrated into the decision process? (3) Are there commonalities in how decision makers respond to changed information across different paradigms? Or, is adaptation and integration of new information domain specific? To address these key questions, we will examine a range of cognitive models that encode different hypotheses about underlying decision processes. New approximate Bayesian computation methodologies will be developed to integrate these cognitive models with data and compare models encoding different hypotheses. Empirically, the project involves a series of new experiments that will contribute significantly to what is known about how people make decisions under changing information. These experiments span a wide range of paradigms from simple perceptual tasks to high-level preferential choice tasks involving multiple alternatives. Collectively, they will provide valuable insight into how changing information affects decisions across different domains.

在日常生活中，人们会遇到许多情况，他们必须在可用信息随时间变化的情况下做出决策。在忙碌的高速公路上变道这个简单的动作就是一个例子。虽然一开始车道看起来很干净，但下一刻另一辆车可能已经从另一边停了下来。为了避免冲突，决策者必须能够分析和应对新信息。过去，许多关于人类决策的研究都集中在信息恒定不变的情况下。本计画以实验与计算模拟相结合的方法，研究动态资讯对决策的影响。这项工作与日常生活相关，并为社会提供潜在的利益。过去的研究表明，人们的决定往往对上下文敏感（例如，添加一个更差的选项可以使另一个选项看起来比以前更好）。广告商可以利用这种效应来推销可能对人们有益或有害的产品。这个项目研究如何动态的信息呈现可以影响上下文效应，并可能去偏见这些决定。该项目还通过促进数学心理学中的性别平等，支持增加定量社会科学的多样性。这个项目的研究目标是扩大我们对人们如何整合动态变化的信息的理解。三个关键问题得到解决：（1）人们适应新信息的速度有多快？(2)如何将新信息整合到决策过程中？(3)决策者如何应对不同范式的信息变化，是否存在共性？或者，新信息领域的适应和整合是特定的吗？为了解决这些关键问题，我们将研究一系列认知模型，这些模型编码了关于潜在决策过程的不同假设。将开发新的近似贝叶斯计算方法，以将这些认知模型与数据相结合，并比较编码不同假设的模型。从经验上看，该项目涉及一系列新实验，这些实验将对人们如何在不断变化的信息下做出决策做出重大贡献。这些实验涵盖了从简单的知觉任务到涉及多个备选方案的高级优先选择任务的广泛范式。总的来说，它们将提供有价值的见解，了解不断变化的信息如何影响不同领域的决策。