Probabilistic Assessment of Tsunami Forces on Coastal Structures

海啸力量对海岸结构的概率评估

• 批准号: 1536198
• 负责人: Michael Motley
• 金额: $ 30万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-09-01 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1536198&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Probabilistic; Assessment; Tsunami; Forces; Coastal

In the last decade, tsunamis have caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to coastal communities around the world. While a major tsunami has not impacted the United States in some time, there is significant risk to the Pacific Coast and recent storm surge events have shown a potential for damage to domestic infrastructure similar to what was seen in East Asia and the Pacific. Interest in tsunami load predictions for structural design has grown, but it is difficult to develop models that accurately predict the tsunami load response of an individual structure, much less the tsunami risk for multiple structures within a specific region. The framework presented here is designed to improve the safety and sustainability of coastal structures and, consequently, improve tsunami hazard assessments, post-event response, and recovery efforts. Ultimately, this work will result in safer communities through increased public awareness of the risks posed by these types of hazards and enhanced tools to develop resilient infrastructure systems. Increased computing power has prompted the development of novel numerical approaches to tsunami-structure interaction modeling tailored to capture specific physical phenomena with high-levels of resolution and accuracy, including coupled multiphysics models to simulate complex system interactions. If community-specific assessments of structural vulnerabilities are to be achieved, they must be based on a fundamental understanding of these interactions and an ability to efficiently model the associated physical processes in a probabilistic framework that accounts for the uncertain nature of these events. The primary goals of this research project are to establish an open-source modeling framework where 3D computational fluid dynamics solvers can be used efficiently to inform the development of load-prediction capabilities for existing, widely used inundation models and to develop a probabilistic framework for predicting the fluid loading and structural response of coastal structures at a community level. The research team will validate this framework against existing experimental data, assess the effects of bathymetry and community layout on flow, refine the models to include force predictions, and extend probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment methods to include fluid loading criteria. This work will provide users both the framework and the software tools necessary to develop site-specific numerical models to increase the safety and sustainability of coastal structure by improving our understanding of the probabilistic risk posed by tsunami events on these structures.

在过去十年中，海啸已造成数十万人死亡，给世界各地沿海社区造成数千亿美元的损失。 虽然大型海啸在一段时间内没有影响到美国，但太平洋海岸面临着巨大的风险，最近的风暴潮事件表明，与东亚和太平洋地区类似，美国国内基础设施可能受到损害。 人们对结构设计中的海啸载荷预测的兴趣日益浓厚，但开发能够准确预测单个结构的海啸载荷响应的模型很困难，更不用说特定区域内多个结构的海啸风险了。 这里提出的框架旨在提高沿海结构的安全性和可持续性，从而改善海啸灾害评估、事后响应和恢复工作。 最终，这项工作将通过提高公众对此类危害所带来的风险的认识以及增强开发弹性基础设施系统的工具来实现更安全的社区。 计算能力的提高促进了海啸结构相互作用建模的新型数值方法的开发，这些方法旨在以高分辨率和准确性捕获特定的物理现象，包括用于模拟复杂系统相互作用的耦合多物理场模型。 如果要实现针对特定社区的结构脆弱性评估，则必须基于对这些相互作用的基本理解以及在概率框架中有效建模相关物理过程的能力，以解释这些事件的不确定性。 该研究项目的主要目标是建立一个开源建模框架，可以有效地使用 3D 计算流体动力学求解器来为现有广泛使用的淹没模型的负载预测功能的开发提供信息，并开发一个概率框架来预测社区层面沿海结构的流体负载和结构响应。 研究小组将根据现有的实验数据验证该框架，评估测深和群落布局对流动的影响，完善模型以包括力预测，并扩展概率海啸灾害评估方法以包括流体负荷标准。 这项工作将为用户提供开发特定地点数值模型所需的框架和软件工具，通过提高我们对海啸事件对这些结构造成的概率风险的理解来提高沿海结构的安全性和可持续性。