Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant: Mechanisms For Long Term Maintenance Of Social Stability

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This project will examine mechanisms of social stability and the reasons why some social systems resist change. Social stability, or the persistence of social systems, is a fundamental feature without which human society is not possible. Understanding contexts and processes that resist change and that maintain social stability is crucial to predicting and managing the effects of the intensity and pace of change of the modern world. Previous scholarship has shown that social stability is not an inherent property of a social system and cannot be defined simply as the absence of change but must be explained. Social stability is embedded over time through the cumulative social dependencies created between individuals who choose to form a relationship. The peculiar formations of these dependencies result in different levels of social cohesion, akin to "social glue", that act to promote or thwart social stability. Since the embedding of social stability is a cumulative process that plays out through time, archaeology is uniquely positioned with an established corpus of tools and the long-term perspective necessary to problematize social stability, to establish contexts in which societies resist change, good or bad, and ultimately to understand how, why, and when social transformation does or does not take place.The research will be conducted by Wendy Cegielski, under the direction of Dr. C. Michael Barton, as part of her doctoral dissertation research It will examine change or lack thereof in social complexity by combining quantitative modeling and the comparative archaeological record where the social system is represented by networks of relations between settlements. From prior sociological research, it has been demonstrated that multiple paths to social cohesion exist and the particular evolution of these paths may be responsible for a society's long-term resistance to change. Subsequently, recognizing the mechanisms governing these paths is important to understanding the evolution of social complexity. In order to accomplish this goal, this project uses formal, abstract modeling techniques called Exponential Random Graph Models from Network Science, the study of relational data. These methods move beyond static snapshots of data toward the investigation of the role of cumulative, bottom-up drivers of stability and change, and their relation to empirical record. The research will be conducted in eastern Spain along the Mediterranean and on the material culture of the Valencian Bronze Age, where prior research appears to indicate little, regional social change for 700 years. Previous scholarship has demonstrated the robusticity across complex social systems of the network theory used in this research; thus the methods proposed can be applied cross-culturally and across disciplines. This research also will increase collaboration between US and international institutions and provide new opportunities for technical training in these innovative techniques.