Collaborative Research: EaSM2--Linking Human and Earth System Models to Assess Regional Impacts and Adaption in Urban Systems and Their Hinterlands

在今后30年内，气候多变性、气候变化和全球发展趋势可能对人类福祉，特别是发展中世界的人类福祉产生各种各样的深远影响。了解人类和地球系统轨迹将如何相互作用，对于做出更好的决策，减少对社会和生态系统的负面影响至关重要。与气候影响有关的研究传统上被分成若干协调不佳的任务，由独立的模型和研究小组开发a）社会经济发展途径，B）排放和土地利用情景，c）土地覆盖预测，d）气候模拟，以及e）影响评估。这种脱节的方法导致了问题的不同组成部分之间的假设不一致，缺乏反馈，不受管理的不确定性传播，以及在各个组成部分之间放大或缩小信息时引入错误。为了解决这些问题，需要更好的影响评估方法，提供更丰富，更高分辨率和更内部一致的未来社会和地球系统条件信息，并将人类和地球系统的模型更有效地联系起来。该提案的中心目标是通过开发和应用工具，更好地整合人类和地球系统模型，提高对社会经济发展和区域气候变化的共同后果的认识。为实现这一目标，将在中国、印度和巴西这三个快速发展中国家的三个区域案例研究中，重点关注三个关键系统-城市地区、农业和森林-的影响。该项目将开发一套综合社区工具，将最相关的全球人类系统模型、综合评估模型与社区地球系统模型联系起来，社区地球系统模型是过去15年来通过基础广泛的科学合作和社区支持开发和验证的。它将利用这些工具将环境安全管理与综合评估模型（人口-经济-技术-科学综合模型）联系起来，并对我们的案例研究区域进行端到端的影响评估，从社会经济情景开发到地球系统分析，再到影响和适应评估。这些评估将作为这个新建模框架的概念验证，并产生有价值的评估信息。重要的是，研究框架将适用于其他人类系统，在其他地区，并与其他IAM比这里雇用，以促进更广泛的了解气候变化的人类后果。

Within the next three decades, climate variability, climate change and global development trends could have varied and profound effects on human well-being, especially in the developing world. Understanding how human and earth system trajectories will interact is essential to making better decisions that can reduce negative consequences for society and ecosystems. Research related to climate impacts has traditionally been separated into a number of poorly coordinated tasks, with independent models and research groups developing a) socio-economic development pathways, b) emissions and land use scenarios, c) land cover projections, d) climate simulations, and e) impact assessments. This disjointed approach has led to inconsistencies in assumptions across different components of the problem, lack of incorporation of feedbacks, unmanaged uncertainty propagation, and introduction of errors when upscaling or downscaling information across components.To address these issues, better approaches to impact assessment are required that provide richer, higher resolution, and more internally consistent information about future societal and earth system conditions, and that link models of human and earth systems more effectively. The central objective of this proposal is to improve understanding of the joint consequences of socio-economic development and regional climate change by developing and applying tools to better integrate human and earth system models. This objective will be pursued by focusing on impacts in three key systems - urban areas, agriculture, and forests - in three regional case studies in rapidly developing countries - China, India, and Brazil. The project will develop an integrated suite of community tools for linking the most relevant type of global human system model, integrated assessment models (IAMs), with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), developed and validated through broad-based scientific collaboration and community support over the past 15 years. It will employ these tools to link the CESM with one IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and carry out end-to-end impact assessments for our case study regions, from socio-economic scenario development through earth system analysis to impact and adaptation assessment. These assessments will serve as a proof-of-concept for this new modeling framework as well as produce valuable assessment information. Importantly, the research framework will be applicable in other human systems, in other regions, and with other IAMs than those employed here, to contribute to an even broader understanding of the human consequences of climate change.