Collaborative Research: Present and Projected Future Forcings on Antarctic Peninsula Glaciers and Ice Shelves using the Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) Model

在过去的半个世纪里，南极半岛一直是世界上变暖最快的地区之一。这导致了冰川融化加剧、冰川大面积退缩、冰架崩塌和冰川加速。其中许多变化是由降水变化和空气温度升高导致的融化增加造成的。该项目将结合使用两个模型——一个区域大气模型和一个冰川表面过程模型——来模拟未来温度和降雪的变化，以及由此导致的冰川质量变化。将根据观测记录（自1979年开始有卫星观测以来）对模型组合进行测试，以验证它可以再现观测到的变化，然后运行到2100年。研究结果将更好地估计未来气候变化对南极半岛的影响，以及气候变化驱动的预期冰川质量变化。该项目将利用在半岛上观测到的巨大变化来验证一个适合理解这些变化对那里的冰川和冰架的影响的模型框架，目标是为该地区制定最佳约束的未来气候和地表质量变化情景。该框架将提供过去变化对该地区冰盖影响的连贯图景，并提供在标准情景下决定该地区今后冰质量损失的作用力的最佳可用约束条件。天气预报和研究（WRF）模式将用于南极半岛和邻近岛屿的区域，以量化质量变化的时空格局趋势，重点是表面融化。WRF模式将得到加强，以考虑冰川表面的具体情况，修改后的模式将用于模拟1979-2100年期间的气候条件和由此产生的地表质量预算和融化。将模拟的过去气候变化与地面和卫星观测记录联系起来，将为解释预估的未来变化提供基础。结果将利用现有气象站观测、地表质量平衡数据和卫星衍生的融化记录进行验证。该活动将通过与西班牙、德国和荷兰的同事合作，促进伙伴关系，并将支持一名早期博士后研究员和两名研究生，向本科生和高中生介绍原创性研究，并通过将数据和结果纳入课程课程，为学生提供培训。

Hock/1543432Over the last half century the Antarctic Peninsula has been among the most rapidly warming regions in the world. This has led to increased glacier melt, widespread glacier retreat, ice-shelf collapses, and glacier speed-ups. Many of these changes are driven by changing precipitation and increased melt due to warmer air temperatures. This project will use a combination of two models - a regional atmospheric model and a model of processes at the glacier surface - to simulate future changes in temperature and snowfall, and the resulting changes in glacier mass. The combination of models will be tested against the observational record (since 1979 when satellite observations became available), to verify that it can reproduce observed change, and then run to the year 2100. Results will provide better estimates of the impacts of future climate changes over the Antarctic Pensinsula and the expected glacier mass changes driven by the evolving climate. The project will use the large changes observed on the Peninsula to validate a model framework suitable for understanding the impact of these changes on the glaciers and ice shelves there, with the goal of developing optimally constrained future climate and surface mass change scenarios for the region. The framework will provide both a coherent picture of the impacts of past changes on the region's ice cover, and also the best available constraints on forcings that will determine ice mass loss from this region going forward under a standard scenario. The Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) Model will be used over the domain of the Antarctic Peninsula and neighboring islands to quantify trends in spatio-temporal patterns of mass change with a focus on surface melt. The WRF model will be enhanced to account for the specific conditions of glacier surfaces, and the modified model will be used to simulate climate conditions and resulting surface mass budgets and melt over the period 1979-2100. Tying modeled past climate changes to the surface and satellite-based observational record will provide a foundation for interpreting projected future change. Results will be validated using available weather station observations, surface mass-balance data, and satellite-derived records of melt. The activity will foster partnerships through collaboration with colleagues in Spain, Germany and The Netherlands and will support an early-career postdoctoral researcher and two graduate students, introduce undergraduate and high-school students to original research and provide training of students through inclusion of data and results in course curriculums.