EAGER: A Platform for Regional-Scale Landslide Risk Assessment

针对2014年致命的华盛顿山体滑坡，已经提出了许多地质灾害政策倡议。实施这些政策带来了相当大的、仍未解决的实际和科学挑战，目前在美国，还没有完善的、系统的程序来开发滑坡地图。此外，当它们存在时，这些地图通常只考虑滑坡危害（位置和/或发生的可能性）而不是风险（危害发生的后果），这对利益相关者和社区更有意义。这项早期概念探索性研究资助（EAGER）支持开发一个计算平台，以实现低成本、高分辨率的区域滑坡风险测绘。与新西兰地质与核科学研究所（GNS Science）的国际合作是该研究的核心部分，该研究将利用在克赖斯特彻奇地震序列和随后的极端降水事件期间开发的前所未有的数据集。这项研究将有助于指导和告知公共政策，并对生活在滑坡易发地区的个人的安全具有重要意义。本研究的核心成果将是一个新的滑坡风险评估框架和计算地理空间平台。该研究小组将开发一个基于地形的方案，使用特定模式的滑坡模型来评估边坡的稳定性，该方案将在新西兰地震和降水引起的滑坡的综合数据库中得到验证。然后将滑坡灾害模型与滑坡损害和死亡脆弱性关系一起用于绘制滑坡风险图。在工作的最后阶段，将对位于美国西北部和新西兰的两个试验点进行区域规模的试点滑坡评估。这些试点研究将展示该平台在不同地质、地貌和土地利用环境下的实际应用，并为其他地区的滑坡风险评估提供指导。

A number of geologic hazard policy initiatives have been proposed in response to the deadly 2014 Oso, Washington Landslide. Implementing these policies poses considerable and still unresolved practical and scientific challenges, and currently in the U.S., there are no well-established, systematic procedures for developing landslide maps. Moreover, when they exist, these maps typically consider only landslide hazard (location and/or likelihood of occurrence) rather than risk (the consequence of the hazard occurring), which is more meaningful to stakeholders and communities. This EArly-concept Grant for Exploratory Research (EAGER) award supports the development of a computational platform to enable low-cost, high-resolution regional-scale landslide risk mapping. International collaboration with the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS Science), New Zealand, is a central part of the research, which will capitalize on an unprecedented dataset that was developed during the Christchurch Earthquake sequence, and extreme precipitation events that followed. The research will help guide and inform public policies and have important implications for the safety of individuals living in landslide-prone areas. The key product of this research will be a new framework and computational geo-spatial platform for landslide risk assessment. The research team will develop a terrain-based scheme to assess slope stability using mode-specific landslide models, which will be validated against a comprehensive database of earthquake- and precipitation-induced landslides from New Zealand. The slope hazard models will then be used with landslide damage and fatality fragility relationships to map the landslide risks. In the final stage of work, pilot regional-scale landslide assessment will be conducted for two test sites located in the northwestern U.S. and in New Zealand. These pilot studies will present real-world applications of the platform in different geologic, geomorphic and land-use settings, and serve to guide landslide risk assessments in other locations.