Collaborative Research: Parameterizing The Drivers and Timing of Post-Earthquake Landslides

这个研究项目探讨了地震后发生的滑坡的驱动因素，这一点目前还不是很清楚。随着地震造成的地形不稳定，山体滑坡往往会更频繁地发生，呈现出影响社会经济福祉和社区恢复的持续危害。虽然地震后滑坡发生的增加已经被记录在案，但这种现象发生的原因却很少得到解释。由于对这一问题缺乏基于物理的认识，我们在准备和减轻地震事件后的滑坡灾害方面装备不足，使我们的社区在恢复的关键时刻变得脆弱。该项目与新西兰的合作伙伴合作，在近年来经历了严重的地震后滑坡，该项目将创建一个基于物理的框架，以评估当地和区域尺度上地震后滑坡的驱动因素和时间。这项工作将通过限制物理机制和不断变化的物质变化来完成，这些变化导致地震后更频繁地发生山体滑坡。通过这些活动，工程师、规划人员和科学家将能够更好地设计和预防震后滑坡的影响，使基础设施系统的设计更具弹性，并更好地规划地震事件后的恢复工作。该项目还将与美国太平洋西北地区的交通和社区规划者分享从新西兰恢复中获得的直接相关经验，该地区早该发生强烈的俯冲带地震。本研究的主要目标是对震后滑坡的时空驱动因素进行参数化。对震后滑坡活动的震级和时间的评估主要局限于遥感数据的经验观测。这种不断演变的滑坡活动被归因于各种现象；然而，目前还没有基于物理的方法来检验关于震后滑坡驱动因素的假设，评估其各自的影响，或为评估震后滑坡危害提供预测能力。该研究项目将建立一个全面的基于物理的平台，以了解为什么强震会增加随后的滑坡活动。通过这些活动，我们试图(1)建立一个评估地震引起的山坡破坏的框架；(2)分离气候、地质、地震活动、植被和地形如何影响观测到的震后滑坡活动；(3)检验对震后滑坡活动时间尺度的假设影响。这些活动将在与新西兰GNS科学的持续密切合作下进行，GNS科学目前正在领导一项广泛的研究工作，以了解和预测2016年凯库拉事件后的地震后滑坡。我们将通过增加地质力学视角，扩大和补充GNS Science的数据收集和统计建模工作，并实现正式的国际知识交流。我们将测试一个由GNS Science社会科学团队开发的研究到实践的参与项目，该项目贯穿于俄勒冈州交通部的整个科学过程，俄勒冈州交通部对规划震后恢复很感兴趣。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project explores the drivers of landslides that occur after earthquakes, which currently are not well understood. Following destabilization of the terrain from earthquakes, landslides tend to occur more frequently, presenting a persistent hazard that impacts socioeconomic well-being and community recovery. While this increased landslide occurrence after earthquakes has been documented, the reasons why this phenomenon arises are poorly constrained. In the absence of physics-based insight towards this problem, we are ill-equipped to prepare and mitigate landslide hazards following seismic events, leaving our communities vulnerable at a critical time for recovery. In collaboration with partners in New Zealand, which experienced significant post-seismic landsliding in recent years, this project will create a physics-based framework to evaluate drivers and the timing of post-seismic landslides at local and regional scales. This work will be accomplished through constraining the physical mechanisms and evolving material changes that drive landslides to occur more frequently following earthquakes. Through these activities, engineers, planners, and scientists will be better equipped to design and prevent the impacts of post-earthquake landslides, enabling the more resilient design of infrastructure systems and better planning for recovery after seismic events. This project will also allow sharing lessons of direct relevance learned from recovery in New Zealand with the transportation and community planners in the US Pacific Northwest, which is overdue for a strong, subduction zone earthquake. The primary goal of this research project is to parametrize the spatiotemporal drivers of post-earthquake landslides. Evaluation of the magnitude and timing of elevated post-earthquake landslide activity is primarily limited to empirical observation from remotely-sensed data. This evolving landslide activity has been ascribed to various phenomena; however, there are no physics-based approaches to test hypotheses regarding the drivers of post-seismic landsliding, evaluate their respective influences, or provide predictive power towards assessing post-earthquake landslide hazard. This research project will establish a comprehensive physics-based platform for understanding why strong earthquakes increase subsequent landslide activity. Through these activities, we seek to (1) establish a framework for evaluating earthquake-induced hillslope damage, (2) isolate how climate, geology, seismicity, vegetation, and topography influence observed post-earthquake landslide activity, and (3) test hypothesized influences on the timescales of post-earthquake landslide activity. These activities will be performed in continued, close collaboration with GNS Science in New Zealand, who currently are leading an extensive research effort to understand and predict post-earthquake landsliding after the 2016 Kaikoura event. We will expand and complement GNS Science data collection and statistical modeling efforts by adding a geomechanics perspective and enable a formal, international exchange of knowledge. We will test a research-to-practice engagement program developed by the GNS Science social science team throughout the scientific process with the Oregon Department of Transportation, who is interested in planning for post-earthquake recovery.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.