Collaborative Research: Parameterizing The Drivers and Timing of Post-Earthquake Landslides

合作研究：震后山体滑坡的驱动因素和时间参数化

• 批准号: 2050057
• 负责人: Joseph Wartman
• 金额: $ 30.04万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2050057&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Parameterizing; Drivers; Timing

This research project explores the drivers of landslides that occur after earthquakes, which currently are not well understood. Following destabilization of the terrain from earthquakes, landslides tend to occur more frequently, presenting a persistent hazard that impacts socioeconomic well-being and community recovery. While this increased landslide occurrence after earthquakes has been documented, the reasons why this phenomenon arises are poorly constrained. In the absence of physics-based insight towards this problem, we are ill-equipped to prepare and mitigate landslide hazards following seismic events, leaving our communities vulnerable at a critical time for recovery. In collaboration with partners in New Zealand, which experienced significant post-seismic landsliding in recent years, this project will create a physics-based framework to evaluate drivers and the timing of post-seismic landslides at local and regional scales. This work will be accomplished through constraining the physical mechanisms and evolving material changes that drive landslides to occur more frequently following earthquakes. Through these activities, engineers, planners, and scientists will be better equipped to design and prevent the impacts of post-earthquake landslides, enabling the more resilient design of infrastructure systems and better planning for recovery after seismic events. This project will also allow sharing lessons of direct relevance learned from recovery in New Zealand with the transportation and community planners in the US Pacific Northwest, which is overdue for a strong, subduction zone earthquake. The primary goal of this research project is to parametrize the spatiotemporal drivers of post-earthquake landslides. Evaluation of the magnitude and timing of elevated post-earthquake landslide activity is primarily limited to empirical observation from remotely-sensed data. This evolving landslide activity has been ascribed to various phenomena; however, there are no physics-based approaches to test hypotheses regarding the drivers of post-seismic landsliding, evaluate their respective influences, or provide predictive power towards assessing post-earthquake landslide hazard. This research project will establish a comprehensive physics-based platform for understanding why strong earthquakes increase subsequent landslide activity. Through these activities, we seek to (1) establish a framework for evaluating earthquake-induced hillslope damage, (2) isolate how climate, geology, seismicity, vegetation, and topography influence observed post-earthquake landslide activity, and (3) test hypothesized influences on the timescales of post-earthquake landslide activity. These activities will be performed in continued, close collaboration with GNS Science in New Zealand, who currently are leading an extensive research effort to understand and predict post-earthquake landsliding after the 2016 Kaikoura event. We will expand and complement GNS Science data collection and statistical modeling efforts by adding a geomechanics perspective and enable a formal, international exchange of knowledge. We will test a research-to-practice engagement program developed by the GNS Science social science team throughout the scientific process with the Oregon Department of Transportation, who is interested in planning for post-earthquake recovery.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该研究项目探讨了地震后发生的山体滑坡的驱动因素，目前尚不清楚。地震破坏地形稳定后，山体滑坡往往更频繁地发生，成为影响社会经济福祉和社区恢复的持续性危害。虽然有记录表明地震后滑坡发生率增加，但这种现象出现的原因缺乏约束。由于对这一问题缺乏基于物理学的洞察力，我们没有能力在地震事件发生后准备和减轻滑坡灾害，使我们的社区在恢复的关键时刻变得脆弱。新西兰近年来经历了严重的地震后滑坡，该项目将与新西兰的合作伙伴合作，建立一个基于物理的框架，以评估地方和区域规模的地震后滑坡的驱动因素和时间。这项工作将通过限制物理机制和不断演变的材料变化来完成，这些变化促使地震后更频繁地发生山体滑坡。通过这些活动，工程师、规划人员和科学家将更有能力设计和预防地震后山体滑坡的影响，使基础设施系统的设计更具弹性，并更好地规划地震事件后的恢复。该项目还将允许与美国太平洋西北部的交通和社区规划者分享从新西兰恢复中吸取的直接相关的经验教训，这是一次强烈的俯冲带地震。 本研究项目的主要目标是参数化地震后滑坡的时空驱动因素。对震后滑坡活动的规模和时间的评估主要限于遥感数据的经验性观察。这种不断变化的滑坡活动已被归因于各种现象，但是，没有基于物理的方法来测试假设的驱动程序的地震后滑坡，评估其各自的影响，或提供预测能力对评估地震后滑坡灾害。该研究项目将建立一个全面的基于物理学的平台，以了解为什么强震会增加随后的滑坡活动。通过这些活动，我们试图（1）建立一个评估地震引起的山坡破坏的框架，（2）隔离气候，地质，地震活动，植被和地形如何影响观察到的震后滑坡活动，和（3）测试假设的影响震后滑坡活动的时间尺度。这些活动将与新西兰的GNS科学继续密切合作，他们目前正在领导一项广泛的研究工作，以了解和预测2016年凯库拉事件后的地震滑坡。我们将通过增加地质力学视角来扩展和补充GNS科学数据收集和统计建模工作，并实现正式的国际知识交流。我们将测试由GNS科学社会科学团队在整个科学过程中与俄勒冈州交通部开发的研究实践参与计划，该部门对震后恢复计划感兴趣。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估而被认为值得支持。