Collaborative Research: Parameterizing The Drivers and Timing of Post-Earthquake Landslides

这项研究项目探索了地震后发生的山体滑坡的驱动因素，目前对此还不是很清楚。在地震使地形不稳定之后，山体滑坡往往发生得更频繁，构成了一种影响社会经济福祉和社区恢复的持久危险。虽然地震后山体滑坡的增加已经被记录在案，但这种现象出现的原因很少受到限制。由于对这一问题缺乏基于物理学的洞察，我们在准备和减轻地震事件后的山体滑坡灾害方面装备不足，使我们的社区在恢复的关键时刻变得脆弱不堪。新西兰近年来经历了严重的震后滑坡，该项目将与新西兰的合作伙伴合作，创建一个以物理学为基础的框架，以评估地方和区域各级的震后滑坡的驱动因素和时间安排。这项工作将通过限制物理机制和不断演变的材料变化来完成，这些变化导致地震后山体滑坡发生得更频繁。通过这些活动，工程师、规划者和科学家将更好地设计和预防地震后山体滑坡的影响，使基础设施系统的设计更具弹性，并更好地规划地震后的恢复。该项目还将允许与美国太平洋西北部的交通和社区规划者分享新西兰恢复工作中直接相关的经验教训，该地区早该发生强烈的俯冲带地震。这项研究项目的主要目标是对地震后滑坡的时空驱动因素进行参数化。对震后滑坡活动增加的程度和时间的评估主要限于从遥感数据进行的经验观察。这种不断演变的滑坡活动被归因于各种现象；然而，没有基于物理学的方法来检验关于地震后滑坡的驱动因素的假设，评估它们各自的影响，或为评估地震后滑坡灾害提供预测能力。这项研究项目将建立一个全面的基于物理学的平台，以了解为什么强烈地震会增加随后的山体滑坡活动。通过这些活动，我们寻求(1)建立一个评估地震引起的山坡破坏的框架，(2)分离气候、地质、地震活动、植被和地形对地震后滑坡活动的影响，以及(3)检验对地震后滑坡活动时间尺度的假设影响。这些活动将与新西兰的GNS Science继续密切合作进行，后者目前正在领导一项广泛的研究工作，以了解和预测2016年Kaikoura地震后的地震后滑坡。我们将通过增加地质力学的视角来扩展和补充GNS Science的数据收集和统计建模工作，并使正式的国际知识交流成为可能。我们将在整个科学过程中与俄勒冈州交通部一起测试由GNS Science社会科学团队开发的研究到实践参与计划，俄勒冈州交通部对地震后恢复的规划感兴趣。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project explores the drivers of landslides that occur after earthquakes, which currently are not well understood. Following destabilization of the terrain from earthquakes, landslides tend to occur more frequently, presenting a persistent hazard that impacts socioeconomic well-being and community recovery. While this increased landslide occurrence after earthquakes has been documented, the reasons why this phenomenon arises are poorly constrained. In the absence of physics-based insight towards this problem, we are ill-equipped to prepare and mitigate landslide hazards following seismic events, leaving our communities vulnerable at a critical time for recovery. In collaboration with partners in New Zealand, which experienced significant post-seismic landsliding in recent years, this project will create a physics-based framework to evaluate drivers and the timing of post-seismic landslides at local and regional scales. This work will be accomplished through constraining the physical mechanisms and evolving material changes that drive landslides to occur more frequently following earthquakes. Through these activities, engineers, planners, and scientists will be better equipped to design and prevent the impacts of post-earthquake landslides, enabling the more resilient design of infrastructure systems and better planning for recovery after seismic events. This project will also allow sharing lessons of direct relevance learned from recovery in New Zealand with the transportation and community planners in the US Pacific Northwest, which is overdue for a strong, subduction zone earthquake. The primary goal of this research project is to parametrize the spatiotemporal drivers of post-earthquake landslides. Evaluation of the magnitude and timing of elevated post-earthquake landslide activity is primarily limited to empirical observation from remotely-sensed data. This evolving landslide activity has been ascribed to various phenomena; however, there are no physics-based approaches to test hypotheses regarding the drivers of post-seismic landsliding, evaluate their respective influences, or provide predictive power towards assessing post-earthquake landslide hazard. This research project will establish a comprehensive physics-based platform for understanding why strong earthquakes increase subsequent landslide activity. Through these activities, we seek to (1) establish a framework for evaluating earthquake-induced hillslope damage, (2) isolate how climate, geology, seismicity, vegetation, and topography influence observed post-earthquake landslide activity, and (3) test hypothesized influences on the timescales of post-earthquake landslide activity. These activities will be performed in continued, close collaboration with GNS Science in New Zealand, who currently are leading an extensive research effort to understand and predict post-earthquake landsliding after the 2016 Kaikoura event. We will expand and complement GNS Science data collection and statistical modeling efforts by adding a geomechanics perspective and enable a formal, international exchange of knowledge. We will test a research-to-practice engagement program developed by the GNS Science social science team throughout the scientific process with the Oregon Department of Transportation, who is interested in planning for post-earthquake recovery.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.