Collaborative Research: Parameterizing The Drivers and Timing of Post-Earthquake Landslides

合作研究：震后山体滑坡的驱动因素和时间参数化

• 批准号: 2050057
• 负责人: Joseph Wartman
• 金额: $ 30.04万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2050057&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Parameterizing; Drivers; Timing

This research project explores the drivers of landslides that occur after earthquakes, which currently are not well understood. Following destabilization of the terrain from earthquakes, landslides tend to occur more frequently, presenting a persistent hazard that impacts socioeconomic well-being and community recovery. While this increased landslide occurrence after earthquakes has been documented, the reasons why this phenomenon arises are poorly constrained. In the absence of physics-based insight towards this problem, we are ill-equipped to prepare and mitigate landslide hazards following seismic events, leaving our communities vulnerable at a critical time for recovery. In collaboration with partners in New Zealand, which experienced significant post-seismic landsliding in recent years, this project will create a physics-based framework to evaluate drivers and the timing of post-seismic landslides at local and regional scales. This work will be accomplished through constraining the physical mechanisms and evolving material changes that drive landslides to occur more frequently following earthquakes. Through these activities, engineers, planners, and scientists will be better equipped to design and prevent the impacts of post-earthquake landslides, enabling the more resilient design of infrastructure systems and better planning for recovery after seismic events. This project will also allow sharing lessons of direct relevance learned from recovery in New Zealand with the transportation and community planners in the US Pacific Northwest, which is overdue for a strong, subduction zone earthquake. The primary goal of this research project is to parametrize the spatiotemporal drivers of post-earthquake landslides. Evaluation of the magnitude and timing of elevated post-earthquake landslide activity is primarily limited to empirical observation from remotely-sensed data. This evolving landslide activity has been ascribed to various phenomena; however, there are no physics-based approaches to test hypotheses regarding the drivers of post-seismic landsliding, evaluate their respective influences, or provide predictive power towards assessing post-earthquake landslide hazard. This research project will establish a comprehensive physics-based platform for understanding why strong earthquakes increase subsequent landslide activity. Through these activities, we seek to (1) establish a framework for evaluating earthquake-induced hillslope damage, (2) isolate how climate, geology, seismicity, vegetation, and topography influence observed post-earthquake landslide activity, and (3) test hypothesized influences on the timescales of post-earthquake landslide activity. These activities will be performed in continued, close collaboration with GNS Science in New Zealand, who currently are leading an extensive research effort to understand and predict post-earthquake landsliding after the 2016 Kaikoura event. We will expand and complement GNS Science data collection and statistical modeling efforts by adding a geomechanics perspective and enable a formal, international exchange of knowledge. We will test a research-to-practice engagement program developed by the GNS Science social science team throughout the scientific process with the Oregon Department of Transportation, who is interested in planning for post-earthquake recovery.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该研究项目探讨了地震后发生山体滑坡的驱动因素，目前尚不清楚。地震导致地形不稳定后，山体滑坡往往会更频繁地发生，造成持续的危害，影响社会经济福祉和社区恢复。虽然地震后山体滑坡发生率增加的情况已有记录，但这种现象发生的原因却很少得到证实。由于缺乏对这个问题的基于物理的洞察力，我们没有能力准备和减轻地震事件后的山体滑坡灾害，使我们的社区在恢复的关键时刻变得脆弱。新西兰近年来经历了严重的震后山体滑坡，该项目将与新西兰的合作伙伴合作，创建一个基于物理的框架，以评估当地和区域范围内震后山体滑坡的驱动因素和发生时间。这项工作将通过限制地震后导致山体滑坡更频繁发生的物理机制和不断演变的材料变化来完成。通过这些活动，工程师、规划人员和科学家将能够更好地设计和预防震后山体滑坡的影响，从而实现更具弹性的基础设施系统设计，并更好地规划地震事件后的恢复。该项目还将与美国太平洋西北地区的交通和社区规划者分享新西兰恢复过程中直接相关的经验教训，该地区早该发生强烈的俯冲带地震。 该研究项目的主要目标是对震后滑坡的时空驱动因素进行参数化。对震后滑坡活动加剧的规模和时间的评估主要限于遥感数据的经验观察。这种不断演变的滑坡活动被归因于多种现象；然而，没有基于物理的方法来检验有关震后滑坡驱动因素的假设，评估其各自的影响，或为评估震后滑坡危险提供预测能力。该研究项目将建立一个基于物理的综合平台，以了解为什么强地震会增加随后的滑坡活动。通过这些活动，我们寻求（1）建立一个评估地震引起的山坡破坏的框架，（2）隔离气候、地质、地震活动、植被和地形如何影响观测到的震后滑坡活动，以及（3）测试对震后滑坡活动时间尺度的假设影响。这些活动将与新西兰的 GNS Science 持续密切合作进行，该机构目前正在领导一项广泛的研究工作，以了解和预测 2016 年凯库拉事件后的震后山体滑坡。我们将通过添加地质力学视角来扩展和补充 GNS Science 数据收集和统计建模工作，并实现正式的国际知识交流。我们将测试由 GNS Science 社会科学团队与俄勒冈州交通部在整个科学过程中开发的从研究到实践的参与计划，俄勒冈州交通部对规划震后恢复感兴趣。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。