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Potential influence of global climate change on ungulates, predators and tourists in African national parks

全球气候变化对非洲国家公园有蹄类动物、捕食者和游客的潜在影响

基本信息

批准号：
222377726
负责人：
Professorin Dr. Katrin Böhning-Gaese
金额：
--
依托单位：
Senckenberg Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum (BiK-F)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2011-12-31 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/222377726?language=en
关键词：
Potential influence global climate change

项目摘要

Whereas the potential impact of global climate change on individual species has been studied rather thoroughly, the potential effects on trophic interactions, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services are poorly understood. African savannahs provide an interesting study system as they harbour a unique density and species richness of ungulates and large mammalian predators. They also provide valuable ecosystem services in terms of wildlife tourism, a major income for many African countries. Climatic factors, vegetation, ungulates, large mammalian predators and tourist numbers are intricately linked. Some of these links have been well studied, especially at regional spatial scales. However, links among all components, especially including tourist numbers have not been tested quantitatively. We plan to analyse the quantitative relationships between climatic factors, vegetation, ungulates, large mammalian predators, and tourist numbers by analysing census data and visitor statistics across multiple African national parks (n≥62) using path analyses. We will also analyse the same relationships at a regional spatial scale within one national park with a large rainfall gradient by conducting own counts on mammals and tourists. We will use the quantitative relationships among these different components and a space-for-time approach to assess the potential effects of global climate change on this system.

虽然全球气候变化对个别物种的潜在影响已经得到了相当彻底的研究，但对营养相互作用、生态系统功能和生态系统服务的潜在影响却知之甚少。非洲大草原提供了一个有趣的研究系统，因为它们拥有独特的密度和物种丰富的有蹄类动物和大型哺乳动物捕食者。它们还在野生动物旅游方面提供宝贵的生态系统服务，这是许多非洲国家的主要收入。气候因素、植被、有蹄类动物、大型哺乳动物捕食者和游客数量之间存在着错综复杂的联系。其中一些联系已得到很好的研究，特别是在区域空间尺度上。然而，所有组成部分之间的联系，特别是包括游客人数，尚未进行定量测试。我们计划通过使用路径分析分析多个非洲国家公园（n≥62）的人口普查数据和游客统计数据，分析气候因素，植被，有蹄类动物，大型哺乳动物捕食者和游客数量之间的定量关系。我们也将分析相同的关系，在一个国家公园内的一个大的降雨梯度进行自己的哺乳动物和游客的计数在区域空间尺度。我们将利用这些不同组成部分之间的定量关系和时空方法来评估全球气候变化对该系统的潜在影响。