Potential influence of global climate change on ungulates, predators and tourists in African national parks

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Whereas the potential impact of global climate change on individual species has been studied rather thoroughly, the potential effects on trophic interactions, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services are poorly understood. African savannahs provide an interesting study system as they harbour a unique density and species richness of ungulates and large mammalian predators. They also provide valuable ecosystem services in terms of wildlife tourism, a major income for many African countries. Climatic factors, vegetation, ungulates, large mammalian predators and tourist numbers are intricately linked. Some of these links have been well studied, especially at regional spatial scales. However, links among all components, especially including tourist numbers have not been tested quantitatively. We plan to analyse the quantitative relationships between climatic factors, vegetation, ungulates, large mammalian predators, and tourist numbers by analysing census data and visitor statistics across multiple African national parks (n≥62) using path analyses. We will also analyse the same relationships at a regional spatial scale within one national park with a large rainfall gradient by conducting own counts on mammals and tourists. We will use the quantitative relationships among these different components and a space-for-time approach to assess the potential effects of global climate change on this system.