CAREER: Ecosystem-driven Accelerations and Oscillations in the Coupled Earth System

目前史无前例的气候变化速度和规模引起了人们对气候对生物圈的影响以及地球上生命“第六次大灭绝”的担忧。生物学家广泛地记录了植物是如何受到当地环境的影响的。最近的发现支持这样一种观点，即这种影响也是反向流动的：植物在哪里生长以及它们如何发挥作用可以直接影响当地和全球范围的气候。然而，除了几个具体的例子，研究人员还没有探索植物在气候系统中扮演的多重角色。到目前为止，斯旺的工作已经证明，北极、中纬度和热带植物生长地点的变化可以改变当地气候，影响全球范围的大气环流，导致降雨模式的变化，从而影响生活在远离原始变化地点的植物。换句话说，生态系统所在位置的变化以及它们如何应对当地环境的变化可能会产生意想不到的全球影响。然而，问题仍然存在，生态系统的反应是否足以改变气候，以加快地球系统对变化的反应或造成振荡？这项研究将聚焦于关键的悬而未决的问题，即生态系统何时、何地、如何以及在什么时间尺度上改变地球的行为，以应对包括过去和未来的气候变化在内的重大变化。斯旺将使用数值模拟模型来解决这些问题，这些模型的复杂性从主要的概念性模型到包括生态系统中动态相互作用的完整全球气候模型。科学界目前缺乏对生态系统在哪里以及如何改变气候系统的了解。了解生态系统在改变地球功能方面所起的作用，对于预测气候在与今天不同的条件下将如何变化至关重要。此外，这项研究将有助于确定生态系统动态的最具影响力的方面和地球上最敏感的区域，从而指导未来对造成最大不确定性的地球系统方面的研究。该项目将通过正式和非正式教育将斯旺研究的科学主题整合到所有级别(K12、本科生和研究生)的教学和推广中，为长期的研究和教学整合奠定坚实的基础。该提案将直接支持在伯克博物馆为中学女生(在STEM中仍未得到充分代表的少数民族)开展的校外方案中以项目为导向的方法的发展。联合研究和教育工作的目的是让所有年龄段的学生参与并激励他们更好地了解地球系统各组成部分之间的相互作用，以及更多地了解科学过程本身。

The current unprecedented rate and scale of climate change has raised concern about the effects of climate on the biosphere and the onset of a "6th mass extinction" of life on Earth. Biologists have widely documented how plants are influenced by their local environment. Recent findings support the idea that the influence also flows in reverse: where plants grow and how they function can directly modify both local and global scale climate. Yet beyond a few specific examples, researchers have not explored the multiple roles plants play in the climate system. Swann's work to date has demonstrated that changes in where plants grow in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and tropics can alter local climate and influence atmospheric circulation at global scales, causing changes in patterns of where rains with consequences for plants that live in locations far from the original change. In other words, there can be unanticipated, globally reaching effects from changes in where ecosystems are located and how they respond to changes in their local environment. However, the question remains, could the response of ecosystems alter climate enough to accelerate the Earth system's response to change or create oscillations? This research will focus on critical unanswered questions about when, where, how, and over what timescale ecosystems change the behavior of Earth in response to big changes including past and future climate change. Swann will address these questions using a numerical simulation models that range in complexity from primarily conceptual models to full global climate models that include dynamical interactions in ecosystems. The scientific community currently lacks an understanding of where and how ecosystems modify the climate system. Knowing the role that ecosystems play in modifying how the Earth functions is crucial for predicting how climate will change under conditions that are different from today. Additionally, this research will help to identify the most impactful aspects of ecosystem dynamics and the most sensitive regions on Earth therefore guiding future research into aspects of the Earth system responsible for producing the greatest uncertainty. This project will integrate the scientific themes of Swann's research into teaching and outreach at all levels (K12, undergraduate, and graduate) through formal and informal education providing a strong foundation for career-long integration of research and teaching. The proposal will directly support the development of project-oriented approach in an out-of-school program for middle school girls (still underrepresented minorities in STEM) at the Burke Museum. The joint research and educational efforts aim to engage and inspire students of all ages in better understanding of the interaction between components of the Earth system as well as a greater appreciation for the scientific process itself.