Coastal SEES: developing new modeling tools to predict ocean acidification impacts on coastal ecosystems

沿海 SEES：开发新的建模工具来预测海洋酸化对沿海生态系统的影响

基本信息

批准号：
1566623
负责人：
Jerome Fiechter
金额：
$ 92.12万
依托单位：
University of California-Santa Cruz
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2016-09-01 至 2021-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1566623&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Coastal SEES developing new modeling

项目摘要

An immediate consequence of the dissolution of CO2 in seawater is an increase in the acidity of the water, which has implications for organisms that rely on carbonate chemistry for vital functions. As the occurrence of lower pH and lower oxygen events along the U.S. west coast is likely to increase in frequency and worsen in magnitude over the next decades, it is paramount to carefully document present-day variability in water column pH and oxygen associated with seasonal and interannual changes in coastal upwelling, and produce reference pH and oxygen fields at the spatial (kilometers) and temporal (days) scales needed to assess their impact on ecosystem processes. To address this need, the proposed research uses a state-of-the art, data-assimilative, coupled physical-biogeochemical modeling framework to quantify the temporal variability of low pH and low oxygen intrusions along central California at the spatial scales relevant to coastal ecosystems. In addition, the modelling effort relies on an ensemble approach to identify the degree of certainty with which the frequency of occurrence and duration of low pH and low oxygen events can be predicted on daily to seasonal timescales, a critical component for improving future management strategies designed to mitigate the effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms. It is also anticipated that the results will apply to other eastern boundary current upwelling systems and improve broader knowledge of coastal upwelling impacts on biogeochemical processes (e.g., the long-term sign and magnitude of nearshore air-sea CO2 fluxes). The study will contribute to training a new generation of scientists versed in multidisciplinary ocean science and management concepts. Specifically, it will provide training for two post-doctoral researchers and one graduate student in (1) coupled physical-biogeochemical data assimilation, (2) regional-to-local downscaling of model simulations, (3) interpretation of complex numerical model solutions, and (4) creation of products targeted at improving resource management in the face of ocean acidification. In addition, the lead PI will give general audience lectures on the use of models and observations to study ocean acidification along the California coast.Because the significant amount of variability occurring over relatively short spatial ( 100 km) and temporal (days to weeks) scales presents a challenge for coastal ocean observing systems and monitoring programs, the routine use of data-assimilative physical-biogeochemical models would greatly enhance current capabilities for predicting the occurrence of low pH and low oxygen events off central California. In this regard, this research has the following short- and long-term benefits: (1) establish the connections between alongshore upwelling variability and the frequency, magnitude and duration of low pH and low oxygen conditions on the shelf, (2) examine the probability that certain pH and oxygen thresholds below which conditions become detrimental to key marine organisms are exceeded for extended periods, (3) guide the implementation of an efficient monitoring system network by identifying specific regions where pH and oxygen variability is expected to be largest, and (4) implement a modeling framework capable of predicting the occurrence of extreme low pH and low oxygen events off central California, and assess its usefulness for decision-making purposes. These developments contribute to Coastal SEES overarching objectives of advancing understanding of fundamental, interconnected processes in coastal systems on a variety of spatial and temporal scales, improving capabilities for predicting future coastal system states and impacts, and identifying pathways by which research results will be translated to policy and management domains and used to enhance coastal sustainability.

二氧化碳在海水中溶解的直接结果是水的酸度增加，这对依赖碳酸盐化学的生物具有影响重要的功能。随着美国西海岸pH和较低的氧气事件发生的发生频率可能会增加，并且在接下来的几十年中的大小变化，这对于仔细记录了与沿海上升的季节性和年度变化相关的当前日变化，与沿海上升的季节性和年度变化相关，并在空间（kilos）和时间上产生参考的pH和氧气范围，以及临时（均值（kilos）和时间量表）。为了满足这一需求，拟议的研究使用了最先进的，数据鉴别，耦合的物理生物地球化学建模框架，以量化与沿海生态系统相关的加利福尼亚州中部沿着加利福尼亚中部沿中部沿海中部沿中部沿着中部的低氧侵入的时间变异性。此外，建模工作依赖于整体方法来确定可确定的确定性程度，而低pH值和低氧事件的发生频率和持续时间可以预测到每天到季节性时间表，这是改善旨在减轻海洋酸化对海洋生物体影响的未来管理策略的关键组成部分。还可以预见，结果将适用于其他东部边界当前上升流系统，并提高对沿海上升的影响对生物地球化学过程的更广泛了解（例如，近海气海CO2通量的长期迹象和幅度）。该研究将有助于培训新一代的科学家，专为多学科海洋科学和管理概念而言。具体而言，它将为两名博士后研究人员和一名研究生提供培训（1）（1）耦合的物理生物地球化学数据同化，（（2）区域到本地模型模拟的缩减，（3）对复杂的数值模型解决方案的解释，以及（4）针对面对海洋酸化而改善资源管理的产品的创建。此外，铅PI还将为使用模型和观察结果提供一般听众的讲座，以研究沿加利福尼亚海岸的海洋酸化。因为在相对短的空间（100 km）和时间（天数到几周）范围内发生的可变性很大，这对沿海海洋观察系统的范围提高了范围的范围，这将是对沿海海洋观察系统的常规使用，因此，范围是伟大的，以下是伟大的模型。加利福尼亚州中部的pH值和低氧事件的发生。在这方面，这项研究具有以下短期和长期的好处：（1）建立沿海上升的变异性与货架上低pH和低氧条件的频率，大小和持续时间之间的频率，大小和持续时间，（2）（2）在某些pH和氧气阈值下，以下范围有效地确定了pH和氧气阈值的某些pH和氧气阈值，以确定范围的范围，以确定范围的范围，以确定范围的范围。 pH和氧的变异性预计将是最大的，（4）实施一个模型框架，能够预测中央加利福尼亚州中部的极低pH值和低氧事件的发生，并评估其对决策目的的有用性。这些发展有助于沿海地区看到沿海系统中对基本的，相互联系的过程的理解的总体目标，这些过程在各种空间和时间尺度上，提高了预测未来的沿海体系状态和影响的能力，并确定研究结果将转化为政策和管理领域，并用于增强沿海可持续性。